Tests for time series of counts based on the probability-generating function

We propose testing procedures for the hypothesis that a given set of discrete observations may be formulated as a particular time series of counts with a specific conditional law. The new test statistics incorporate the empirical probability-generating function computed from the observations. Special emphasis is given to the popular models of integer autoregression and Poisson autoregression. The asymptotic properties of the proposed test statistics are studied under the null hypothesis as well as under alternatives. A Monte Carlo power study on bootstrap versions of the new methods is included as well as real-data examples.     

Demographic Shifts in the Czech Republic after 1989: A Second Demographic Transition View

A dramatic change in fertility,family formation and living arrangements tookplace in the Czech Republic over the 1990s. Theestablishment of democracy, profound socialtransformation and transition to the marketeconomy affected the values and demographicbehaviour of the young Czech generation. Thispaper examines whether these demographic shiftscan be interpreted within the framework of thesecond demographic transition. The theoreticalpart discusses the idea of the transition,outlining three distinctive conceptualisations.Two of them – the view of the transition as aprogression of characteristic interrelateddemographic changes and a broader viewstressing the importance of underlyingideational factors – fit the Czech situationvery well. A comparison with the Netherlandsreveals that the onset of the transition in theCzech Republic may be clearly located in thefirst half of the 1990s, lagging two decadesbehind the Netherlands.     

Multilevel maximum likelihood estimation with application to covariance matrices

The asymptotic variance of the maximum likelihood estimate is proved to decrease when the maximization is restricted to a subspace that contains the true parameter value. Maximum likelihood estimation allows a systematic fitting of covariance models to the sample, which is important in data assimilation. The hierarchical maximum likelihood approach is applied to the spectral diagonal covariance model with different parameterizations of eigenvalue decay, and to the sparse inverse covariance model with specified parameter values on different sets of nonzero entries. It is shown computationally that using smaller sets of parameters can decrease the sampling noise in high dimension substantially.     

Nonprofit organizations in between the nonprofit and market spheres: Shifting goals,governance and management?

In spite of the belief instilled by the New Public Management reforms that nonprofit organizations (NPOs) can benefit from more management, more measurement and more market practices, systematic knowledge on the organizational effects of NPOs incorporating business practices in their day‐to‐day functioning remains absent to date. This research note addresses this limitation by reviewing 49 research articles. The focus lies on the redefinition of nonprofits' mission and income streams, changing governance arrangements and shifting management practices. We find that, despite numerous detrimental effects cited in the literature, (a) generating commercial income can contribute to the financial stability of NPOs, and (b) hybridization towards the market domain can strengthen the organizational legitimacy of NPOs, suggesting that imitating for‐profit enterprises might contribute to nonprofit functioning in perception, rather than in practice.     

The Replacement Rate: An Imperfect Indicator of Pension Adequacy in Cross-Country Analyses

Pension systems are usually evaluated from the perspective of two basic criteria: pension adequacy and financial sustainability. The first criterion concerns the level of pension benefits and protection of the elderly from poverty. The second criterion applies to financial liquidity. This paper is primarily of methodological nature. We discuss the problem of measuring pension adequacy, focusing mainly on the replacement rate, which, defined in a number of ways, is the most common measure of pension adequacy. However, as we argue in this paper, it covers only one of its dimensions, namely consumption smoothing. Meanwhile, an equally important dimension, often discussed in the literature and included in most definitions of pension adequacy, is protection of old-age pensioners from poverty. Accordingly, we have proved the thesis that the replacement rate is not a sufficient measure of broadly understood pension adequacy in cross-country studies. Consequently, we have proposed alternative (or possibly complementary) measures called the synthetic pension adequacy indicators (SPAI1-3), defined in basic form as a quotient of relative median income and the at-risk-of-poverty rate. These indicators provide for both the above-mentioned dimensions of adequacy and, according to statistical analysis, also represent them very well. Moreover, the indicators, calculated separately for men and for women, enables evaluation of the third dimension of pension adequacy, namely gender-related differences in pension adequacy.     

On probabilistic parametric inference

This paper formulates a theory of probabilistic parametric inference and explores the limits of its applicability. Unlike Bayesian statistical models, the system does not comprise prior probability distributions. Objectivity is imposed on the theory: a particular direct probability density should always result in the same posterior probability distribution. For calibrated posterior probability distributions it is possible to construct credible regions with posterior-probability content equal to the coverage of the regions, but the calibration is not generally preserved under marginalization. As an application of the theory, the paper also constructs a filter for linear Gauss–Markov stochastic processes with unspecified initial conditions.     

How do my parents react when I feel happy? Longitudinal associations with adolescent depressive symptoms,anhedonia, and positive affect regulation

Parental emotion socialization plays a role in the development of adolescents’ emotion regulation and is associated with adolescents’ depressive symptoms. Most research has focused on parental socialization of negative affect. The scarce research on parental socialization of positive affect (PA) shows that parental downgrading responses to adolescents’ PA are associated with concurrent adolescent depression. The aims of the present study were to examine longitudinal associations of both maternal and paternal responses to adolescents’ PA with how adolescents regulate their PA (i.e., dampening and enhancing) and with adolescents’ general depressive symptoms and anhedonia. We also considered associations in the opposite direction from adolescent regulatory responses and symptoms to parental responses. In a two‐wave study (1‐year interval), 635 adolescents from Grade seven completed questionnaires. Cross‐sectionally, maternal and paternal responses to adolescents’ PA were associated with concurrent adolescents’ PA regulation as well as adolescents’ depressive and anhedonic symptoms. Longitudinally, low maternal and paternal enhancing responses to adolescents’ PA predicted relative increases in anhedonic symptoms and relative decreases in adolescent enhancing over time. Low maternal enhancing was also predictive of relative increases in depressive symptoms. The present study points to bidirectionality of relations as adolescents’ level of depressive symptoms predicted maternal and paternal responses.     

The Salience of Perceived Societal Conflict in Europe: A 27 Country Study on the Development of a Measure for Generalized Conflict Thinking

Social Indicators Research - Over the last two decades, European countries have struggled with several crises (e.g., the Great Recession, the refugee crisis) which had a tremendous impact on (some)...