Analysis of adaptive directional stratification for the controlled estimation of rare event probabilities

In the context of structural reliability, a small probability to be assessed, a high computational time model and a relatively large input dimension are typical constraints which brought together lead to an interesting challenge. Indeed, in this framework many existing stochastic methods fail in estimating the failure probability with robustness.     

Prevalence of Sexual Abuse in Childhood: Some Critical Methodological Reflections

This article attempts to analyze the prevalence rates of sexual abuse in childhood reported in comparative empirical studies, giving an overview of a selection of representative studies reporting high rates of abuse and comparing it to an overview of studies reporting lower rates. Extremely discrepant rates of childhood sexual abuse are reported in a number of empirical studies conducted in this field over the past 26 years, particularly those looking beyond prevalence to study the links between this type of trauma and future motherhood. To shed light on the disparities in the reported prevalence rates, the article reviews the principal methodological biases that have contaminated the findings. The authors then offer several suggestions for improvement that might be implemented in future studies.     

Inequality of educational opportunity in France and the United States

Unequality of educational opportunity is related to school structure. Comparison of the attainment process in France and the United States reveals the consequences of structure for individuals' attainments. Turner's (1960) typology of educational systems is applied. The French educational system is shown to be closer to Turner's “sponsorship system,” and that of the U. S. closer to the “contest” type. Inequality of educational opportunity, as indicated by the effect of father's occupational status on years of schooling completed, is greater in France than in the U. S. The difference is accounted for by school structural variables, indicating the importance of structure for inequality of opportunity. Other differences concerning the causes of educational attainment in France and the U. S. are also discussed.     

Risk Assessment of Dimethylfumarate Residues in Dwellings Following Contamination by Treated Furniture

Recently, numerous cases of dermatitis induced by dimethylfumarate (DMFu) have been reported in Europe. DMFu has been used to prevent mold development in various items, although it is not registered as a biocide. In France, from October 2008 to December 2009, more than 100 cases were reported. Despite a ban on articles containing DMFu and the removal of potentially contaminated products, some people were still suffering from dermatitis or other health problems. The French Agency for Food, Environmental and Occupational Health & Safety was mandated to assess whether the existence in the past of DMFu‐contaminated items in dwellings could continue to pose a threat to the health of inhabitants. A risk assessment was performed based on the classical risk analysis approach for environmental contaminants. Hazard assessment of DMFu with regard to its sensitizing properties was performed, based on human case reports collected in France between January 2009 and February 2010. For around half of the 132 individual cases reported, the causal link to DMFu was considered at least probable. An Organisation for Economic Co‐Operation and Development (OECD) local lymph node assay performed in a study on mice showed strong sensitizing potential for DMFu. Exposure was assessed by measuring DMFu in items sampled in preselected dwellings. These investigations demonstrated that DMFu exposure can persist after removal of the primary contaminated items. We therefore concluded that there was clearly a risk of skin reactions in patients previously sensitized to DMFu. Furthermore, the available data do not support the existence of significant health effects through the respiratory route.     

Migration Management and Humanitarian Protection: The UNHCR's ‘Resettlement Expansionism’ and Its Impact on Policy-making in the EU and Australia

Since the late 1990s, the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) has been a key actor in the resurgence of refugee resettlement in global debates on asylum and refugee policies. This article investigates the dynamics of the international organisation's ‘resettlement expansionism’ within the UNHCR as well as its impact on policy-making. Firstly, it analyses how the UNHCR has increased its expertise production and dissemination as well as its operational focus on resettlement. Secondly, it assesses the policy-making impact of the UNCR's ‘resettlement expansionism’ in two distinct contexts: the elaboration of the EU's new joint resettlement scheme and the recent increase of resettlement places by 40% in Australia, a traditional country of resettlement. Lastly, it discusses potential implications of this research in regards to the evolution of the global refugee regime and, more conceptually, to the study of knowledge production and expertise in migration and refugee policy.     

High-dimensional VAR with low-rank transition

Statistics and Computing - We propose a vector auto-regressive model with a low-rank constraint on the transition matrix. This model is well suited to predict high-dimensional series that are...     

Using administrative data to assess child safety in out-of-home care

This article describes efforts to produce useful safety measures from administrative data. A measure similar to that proposed by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services is presented and compared to a measure that takes into account the length of time children are in placement. These measures are also reported for out-of-home care placement types. The challenges posed in constructing such measures from extant data are discussed.