Choosing between Cox proportional hazards and logistic models for interval- censored data via bootstrap

This work develops a new methodology in order to discriminate models for interval- censored data based on bootstrap residual simulation by observing the deviance difference from one model in relation to another, according to Hinde (1992). Generally, this sort of data can generate a large number of tied observations and, in this case, survival time can be regarded as discrete. Therefore, the Cox proportional hazards model for grouped data (Prentice & Gloeckler, 1978) and the logistic model (Lawless, 1982) can be fitted by means of generalized linear models. Whitehead (1989) considered censoring to be an indicative variable with a binomial distribution and fitted the Cox proportional hazards model using complementary log-log as a link function. In addition, a logistic model can be fitted using logit as a link function. The proposed methodology arises as an alternative to the score tests developed by Colosimo et al. (2000), where such models can be obtained for discrete binary data as particular cases from the Aranda-Ordaz distribution asymmetric family. These tests are thus developed with a basis on link functions to generate such a fit. The example that motivates this study was the dataset from an experiment carried out on a flax cultivar planted on four substrata susceptible to the pathogen Fusarium oxysoprum . The response variable, which is the time until blighting, was observed in intervals during 52 days. The results were compared with the model fit and the AIC values.     

Bayesian analysis of elapsed times in continuous‐time Markov chains

The authors consider Bayesian analysis for continuous‐time Markov chain models based on a conditional reference prior. For such models, inference of the elapsed time between chain observations depends heavily on the rate of decay of the prior as the elapsed time increases. Moreover, improper priors on the elapsed time may lead to improper posterior distributions. In addition, an infinitesimal rate matrix also characterizes this class of models. Experts often have good prior knowledge about the parameters of this matrix. The authors show that the use of a proper prior for the rate matrix parameters together with the conditional reference prior for the elapsed time yields a proper posterior distribution. The authors also demonstrate that, when compared to analyses based on priors previously proposed in the literature, a Bayesian analysis on the elapsed time based on the conditional reference prior possesses better frequentist properties. The type of prior thus represents a better default prior choice for estimation software.     

Workgroup interdependence and satisfaction from a developmental perspective: the moderating role of the group’s life cycle stage / Interdependencia y satisfacción en el grupo de trabajo desde la perspectiva del desarrollo: el rol moderador de la fase del ciclo de vida grupal

From a developmental perspective, workgroups adjust and modify the way they function over time. The present study aims to test, at the group level, the moderating role of the group’s life phase in the relationship between workgroup interdependence ties in terms of task, outcome and functions, assessed by social network density and group satisfaction. A sample of 84 teams from various companies participated in this research. The results showed that the group’s development phase determines the way that outcome interdependence density in teams is associated with satisfaction and reveal the existence of differences between the second and fourth development stages. Therefore, the group’s life cycle stage should be considered as a relevant variable in research and intervention with groups in the workplace.     

The Meaning of Trust for Brazilians with Higher Education

The validity of the World Values Survey (WVS) question used to measure trust is disputed over and this article is intended to present the results of an online survey, conducted in Brazil, which tested the meaning of the term trust in the WVS question. The surveyed population is entirely Brazilian and the majority has received some form of higher education. The results of the survey partially corroborate the validity of the WVS and partially deny it. Within the results of this survey there are predominantly two dominant perspectives represented within the surveyed population including: respondents who think in friends and relatives as part of most people have a higher probability of also saying to trust most people which means that different people may be answering slightly different questions. However, respondents who say that trust most people have higher levels of trust in people in general than in family if compared with respondents who say to not trust most people which is in accordance with the expectation that the question adequately measures generalized interpersonal trust.     

Estimation and diagnostic analysis in skew-generalized-normal regression models

The skew-generalized-normal distribution [Arellano-Valle, RB, Gómez, HW, Quintana, FA. A new class of skew-normal distributions. Comm Statist Theory Methods 2004;33(7):1465–1480] is a class of asymmetric normal distributions, which contains the normal and skew-normal distributions as special cases. The main virtues of this distribution is that it is easy to simulate from and it also supplies a genuine expectation–maximization (EM) algorithm for maximum likelihood estimation. In this paper, we extend the EM algorithm for linear regression models assuming skew-generalized-normal random errors and we develop a diagnostics analyses via local influence and generalized leverage, following Zhu and Lee's approach. This is because Cook's well-known approach would be more complicated to use to obtain measures of local influence. Finally, results obtained for a real data set are reported, illustrating the usefulness of the proposed method.     

Rainfall interception capacity of tree species used in urban afforestation

Afforestation is inserted in the urban environment and interferes directly in the surface runoff. In order to quantify the rainfall interception by tree species, an experiment was carried out in the city of Uruaçu, Goiás, Brazil, with the four most common tree species in the urban afforestation of the region. The species chosen were the Mangifera indica (mango tree), the Caesalpinia peltophoroides (sibipiruna tree), the Pachira aquatica (munguba tree) and the Licania tomentosa (oiti). In order to register precipitation, ten pluviographs were used. They are capable of measuring precipitation over time in terms of duration, volume, and intensity. For events with a mean cumulative precipitation of 16.7 mm, the mean values of interception found in each species were: Mangifera indica - 8.0 mm; Pachira aquatica - 7.4 mm; Licania tomentosa - 7.2 mm; and Caesalpinia peltophoroides - 4.8 mm. The research confirms the importance of studies related to the identification of the species’ individual characteristics that interfere in the rainfall interception capacity and that can consequently contribute to urban drainage actions. In addition, it proves the existence of variations of rainfall interception in relation to rainfall events and during their occurrences and emphasizes the need for a careful definition of the species that will compose the urban afforestation.     

Total testosterone levels are correlated to metabolic syndrome components

Introduction: Metabolic syndrome (MetS) is a constellation of interrelated risk factors of metabolic origin. Some studies suggest a possible link between low total testosterone (TT) levels and the presence of MetS.

Aim: To analyze the strength and independence of associations between TT and MetS components in non-diabetic men.

Methods: In this cross-sectional study, 143 non-diabetic men older than 40 were analyzed.

Main outcomes measure: Blood samples were collected to evaluate metabolic profile and TT levels. MetS was defined as the presence of three or more of the following characteristics: fasting blood glucose levels?≥?100?mg/dL, triglyceride?≥?150?mg/dL, HDL-c??102?cm.

Results: Mean age of the study population was 61.5?±?8.61 years old. MetS was present in 47.9% of the individuals. Thirty-four men had low TT and MetS was observed in 23 (70%) against 50 (46%) in those with normal TT (≥?300?ng/dL) (OR 4.94, p?p?=?0.03) and HDL-c (Beta: 0.19; p?=?0.04) remained significantly correlated with TT levels.

Conclusions: Low TT levels were associated with MetS diagnosis. Abdominal obesity was the MetS component independently correlated to low TT levels.     

A global count of the extreme poor in 2012: data issues,methodology and initial results

The 2014 release of a new set of purchasing power parity (PPP) conversion factors (PPPs) for 2011 has prompted a revision of the World Bank’s international poverty line. In revising the line, we have sought to minimize changes to the real purchasing power of the earlier $1.25 line (in 2005 PPPs), so as to preserve the integrity of the goalposts for international targets such as the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the World Bank’s twin goals – which were set with respect to that line. In particular, the new line was obtained by inflating the same fifteen national poverty lines – originally used by Ravallion et al. (World Bank Econ. Rev. 23(2): 163–184 2009) to construct the $1.25 line – to 2011 prices in local currency units, and then converting them to US dollars using 2011 PPP conversion factors. With a small approximation, this procedure yields a new international poverty line of $1.90 per person per day. In combination with other changes described in the paper, this revision leads to relatively small changes in global poverty incidence for 2011: from 14.5 % using the old method to 14.1 % using the new method. In 2012, the new reference year for the global count, we find 12.7 % of the world’s population, or 897 million people, are living in extreme poverty. There are changes in the regional composition of poverty, but they are also relatively small. This paper documents methodological decisions taken in the process of updating both the poverty line and the consumption and income distributions at the country level, including issues of inter-temporal and spatial price adjustments. It also describes various caveats and limitations of the approach taken.