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1.
Impacts of complex emergencies or relief interventions have often been evaluated by absolute mortality compared to international standardized mortality rates. A better evaluation would be to compare with local baseline mortality of the affected populations. A projection of population-based survival data into time of emergency or intervention based on information from before the emergency may create a local baseline reference. We find a log-transformed Gaussian time series model where standard errors of the estimated rates are included in the variance to have the best forecasting capacity. However, if time-at-risk during the forecasted period is known then forecasting might be done using a Poisson time series model with overdispersion. Whatever, the standard error of the estimated rates must be included in the variance of the model either in an additive form in a Gaussian model or in a multiplicative form by overdispersion in a Poisson model. Data on which the forecasting is based must be modelled carefully concerning not only calendar-time trends but also periods with excessive frequency of events (epidemics) and seasonal variations to eliminate residual autocorrelation and to make a proper reference for comparison, reflecting changes over time during the emergency. Hence, when modelled properly it is possible to predict a reference to an emergency-affected population based on local conditions. We predicted childhood mortality during the war in Guinea-Bissau 1998-1999. We found an increased mortality in the first half-year of the war and a mortality corresponding to the expected one in the last half-year of the war. 相似文献
2.
Knowledge constructions in research communities: The example of agri-rural researchers in Denmark 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
Construction of scientific knowledge can be seen as a struggle over who should define the terms and conditions of legitimate fields of research. Sociologists of scientific knowledge (SSK) have pointed to the importance of analysing scientific knowledge in the same way as other types of knowledge. This idea guides the present paper on Danish research in agriculture and rural areas. Based on an ethnographic study of researchers involved in rural studies, we take stock of the agri-rural research community in Denmark and reflect upon the how and why ‘fashions’ in Danish rural studies differ from ‘fashions’ in rural studies in the UK. In the analysis, we show how a research community construct and reconstruct itself in relation to what is perceived as legitimate fields of research. Finally, the paper gives insight into the research world of those doing research outside the UK and adds to the discussion of ‘putting philosophies of geography into practice’ that is on-going in British geography. 相似文献
3.
Tomi Janhunen Martin Gebser Jussi Rintanen Henrik Nyman Johan Pensar Jukka Corander 《Statistics and Computing》2017,27(1):115-130
Statistical model learning problems are traditionally solved using either heuristic greedy optimization or stochastic simulation, such as Markov chain Monte Carlo or simulated annealing. Recently, there has been an increasing interest in the use of combinatorial search methods, including those based on computational logic. Some of these methods are particularly attractive since they can also be successful in proving the global optimality of solutions, in contrast to stochastic algorithms that only guarantee optimality at the limit. Here we improve and generalize a recently introduced constraint-based method for learning undirected graphical models. The new method combines perfect elimination orderings with various strategies for solution pruning and offers a dramatic improvement both in terms of time and memory complexity. We also show that the method is capable of efficiently handling a more general class of models, called stratified/labeled graphical models, which have an astronomically larger model space. 相似文献
4.
This paper researches productivity in relation to domain complexity and the present knowledge capacity in an organisational context. The study is based on five very different case studies. Three studies are conducted in Denmark, Germany, Mexico and China and are related to knowledge transfer in the relocation of manufacturing facilities. Two studies investigate operation and automation of oil and gas production in the North Sea. The case study method involves semi-structured interviews, surveys, an analysis of historical production data and observations. Based on the findings from the field studies, the paper develops a conceptual framework that management can use for discussions of productivity, development of knowledge and design of learning programmes when considering changes in the complexity of a domain or a change in knowledge. 相似文献
5.
Henrik Örnebring 《Sociology Compass》2012,6(10):769-780
This overview focuses on the most common type of comparative journalism research, which is cross‐national comparative research. The overview presents a typology for different types of comparative journalism research, based on whether the research interest is in journalism as an activity or as a product; and, in the case of journalism as an activity, whether the interest is in the system level, the organizational level, or the individual level of journalism. The overview finds that the analysis of journalism on the individual level and of journalism as a product are the most common types of comparative research, whereas comparative analysis of journalism on the organizational level is much under‐studied. 相似文献
6.
Frailty models can be fit as mixed-effects Poisson models after transforming time-to-event data to the Poisson model framework. We assess, through simulations, the robustness of Poisson likelihood estimation for Cox proportional hazards models with log-normal frailties under misspecified frailty distribution. The log-gamma and Laplace distributions were used as true distributions for frailties on a natural log scale. Factors such as the magnitude of heterogeneity, censoring rate, number and sizes of groups were explored. In the simulations, the Poisson modeling approach that assumes log-normally distributed frailties provided accurate estimates of within- and between-group fixed effects even under a misspecified frailty distribution. Non-robust estimation of variance components was observed in the situations of substantial heterogeneity, large event rates, or high data dimensions. 相似文献
7.
The Value of Safety as Revealed in the Swedish Car Market: An Application of the Hedonic Pricing Approach 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
In this article the hedonic regression technique is used to estimate the value of traffic safety, using information from the Swedish market for automobiles. The results from the study show that the market price of an automobile is negatively correlated with its inherent risk level, i.e. Swedish car consumers pay a safety premium for safer cars. In comparison to previous Swedish stated-preference studies, this study reveals a lower willingness to pay for additional car safety, which might be a result of the interaction between government interventions and individual self-insurance and self-protection.JEL Classification: C51, D61, J28 相似文献
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10.
Henrik Dellestrand 《Journal of International Management》2011,17(3):229-242
This paper conceptualizes divisional headquarters as an important hub-firm within the MNE, orchestrating innovation transfer processes between subsidiaries. It is argued that the internal and external embeddedness of a subsidiary hosting an innovation development project subsequently influences divisional headquarters involvement in the transfer of that innovation. In this way, embeddedness, i.e., the relationships that firms have with each other in the innovation development phase, is brought to the fore as an important factor for MNE subsidiaries hosting innovation development projects for explaining the involvement of divisional headquarters in a subsequent transfer. This highlights divisional headquarters as an active orchestrator of innovation transfers within the MNE. Data from 169 innovation transfer projects as well as 146 internal and 121 external embedded relationships at subsidiary level support the argument of embeddedness as a driver of divisional headquarters involvement in subsidiary innovation transfer projects. From a business network perspective, the findings highlight the role of internal and external embeddedness during innovation development in the subsequent involvement of divisional headquarters in the transfer phase. Embeddedness is not only important for subsidiaries in the innovation development phase but also for divisional headquarters involvement in, and orchestration of, innovation transfer. 相似文献