Developing a Broadly Applicable Measure of Risk Perception

Decades of research identify risk perception as a largely intuitive and affective construct, in contrast to the more deliberative assessments of probability and consequences that form the foundation of risk assessment. However, a review of the literature reveals that many of the risk perception measures employed in survey research with human subjects are either generic in nature, not capturing any particular affective, probabilistic, or consequential dimension of risk; or focused solely on judgments of probability. The goal of this research was to assess a multidimensional measure of risk perception across multiple hazards to identify a measure that will be broadly useful for assessing perceived risk moving forward. Our results support the idea of risk perception being multidimensional, but largely a function of individual affective reactions to the hazard. We also find that our measure of risk perception holds across multiple types of hazards, ranging from those that are behavioral in nature (e.g., health and safety behaviors), to those that are technological (e.g., pollution), or natural (e.g., extreme weather). We suggest that a general, unidimensional measure of risk may accurately capture one's perception of the severity of the consequences, and the discrete emotions that are felt in response to those potential consequences. However, such a measure is not likely to capture the perceived probability of experiencing the outcomes, nor will it be as useful at understanding one's motivation to take mitigation action.     

Monitoring the parameter changes in general ARIMA time series models

We propose methods for monitoring the residuals of a fitted ARIMA or an autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average (ARFIMA) model in order to detect changes of the parameters in that model. We extend the procedures of Box & Ramirez (1992) and Ramirez (1992) and allow the differencing parameter, d to be fractional or integer. Test statistics are approximated by Wiener processes. We carry out simulations and also apply our method to several real time series. The results show that our method is effective for monitoring all parameters in ARFIMA models.     

Patterns in Cross Shopping for Groceries and their Implications for Co-operation in Retail Location

One determinant of the success of a retail outlet is its location. The location strategies adopted by many retailers of convenience products, including those marketing groceries, have been based upon the principle of siting stores away from competition. Recent moves by leading grocery retailers to develop out of town and other sites jointly, where they would trade side by side, mean that methods are needed to appraise the selection of location partners to supplement or replace traditional, spatial analyses. A method based on similarity of image and cross-shopping behaviour is proposed and tested on two substantial data bases. A concept, drawn from theory on brand switching, that customers would treat outlets seen as similar in a similar way, is found not to apply to source switching. Source switching behaviour is found instead to vary with the source itself, according to two distinct patterns. In one, shoppers cross shop more to retailers perceived to be similar; in the other, shoppers cross shop more to retailers perceived to be different. The strategies currently adopted by four grocery retailers in joint site development are appraised against the model of source switching that can be defined from these patterns. Some location alliances are predicted to be potentially more valuable to one partner than another both in the short and long term. The anomalies identified in the selection of location partners are analysed by reference to concepts drawn from the literature on co-operation. Two different types of relationship exist between the various retail partners; a longer term alliance at each site and shorter co-operation between head offices. It is suggested that the nature of the second could prejudice the outcome of the first.     

Becoming the Family Archivist

The author describes some of the ways in which conventional amateur family histories fail to portray the emotional realities of family life. Recent trends in biography and autobiography are explored briefly, and the possibility of a family history informed by systemic as well as psychoanalytic insights is considered. The author's own work, A Family in Time, attempts such a history. The author outlines his sources of information, both documentary and oral, and the special challenges posed by their interpretation. The decisions governing the ordering and selection of data for publication are explored, the author's aim being to present the facts in such a way that a systemic conception of family process over time will be implicit in the material. Implications for the author, for the family itself, and for therapists working with intergenerational process are briefly considered.     

Strategic planning for the board

Although the planning operation is regarded by some observers as unrealistic in conditions of rapid change and increasing competition, the discipline of strategic thinking and the need for strategic leadership continue to be of vital importance. The author examines the purpose of the Board of Directors and its role in the management of strategy.