Still-births among the offspring of male radiation workers at the Sellafield nuclear reprocessing plant: detailed results and statistical aspects

Summary. This study investigates whether there was evidence of increasing risk of still-birth with increasing paternal exposure to ionizing radiation received during employment at the Sellafield nuclear installation before the child was conceived. A significant positive association is found between the total paternal preconceptional exposure to external ionizing radiation and the risk of still-birth (after adjustment for year of birth, social class, birth order and paternal age, odds ratio at 100 mSv 1.24 (95% confidence interval 1.04–1.45)). A summary of the principal scientific findings of this study has been published in the Lancet . This paper describes in detail the statistical methods that were used in the investigation and presents the results in full.     

The calibration of P-values,posterior Bayes factors and the AIC from the posterior distribution of the likelihood

The posterior distribution of the likelihood is used to interpret the evidential meaning of P-values, posterior Bayes factors and Akaike's information criterion when comparing point null hypotheses with composite alternatives. Asymptotic arguments lead to simple re-calibrations of these criteria in terms of posterior tail probabilities of the likelihood ratio. (Prior) Bayes factors cannot be calibrated in this way as they are model-specific.     

Bayesian point null hypothesis testing via the posterior likelihood ratio

This paper gives an exposition of the use of the posterior likelihood ratio for testing point null hypotheses in a fully Bayesian framework. Connections between the frequentist P-value and the posterior distribution of the likelihood ratio are used to interpret and calibrate P-values in a Bayesian context, and examples are given to show the use of simple posterior simulation methods to provide Bayesian tests of common hypotheses.     

The Roots of Linguistic Organization in a New Language

It is possible for a language to emerge with no direct linguistic history or outside linguistic influence. Al-Sayyid Bedouin Sign Language (ABSL) arose about 70 years ago in a small, insular community with a high incidence of profound prelingual neurosensory deafness. In ABSL, we have been able to identify the beginnings of phonology, morphology, syntax, and prosody. The linguistic elements we find in ABSL are not exclusively holistic, nor are they all compositional, but a combination of both. We do not, however, find in ABSL certain features that have been posited as essential even for a proto-language. ABSL has a highly regular syntax as well as word-internal compounding, also highly regular but quite distinct from syntax in its patterns. ABSL, however, has no discernable word-internal structure of the kind observed in more mature sign languages: no spatially organized morphology and no evident duality of phonological patterning.     

Children removed from home by court order: Fathers' disenfranchised grief and reclamation of paternal functions

The study, based on in-depth interviews with 15 fathers in Israel, reports on fathers' emotional reactions to the court-ordered removal of their children from home. The findings show that all the fathers experienced the removal as a traumatic event, which utterly devalued them and annihilated their paternal identity. Although they suffered intense pain and loss well after their children were removed, their grief was disenfranchised as friends and family accused them of allowing the removal to happen. With this, most of the fathers acclimated to the removal and even reported an expansion of their parental identity. The discussion suggests some theoretical conceptualizations of their intense feelings of pain and loss.     

French Yellow Vests (Gilets Jaunes): Similarities and Differences With Occupy Movements

The Yellow Vests movement in France was the most widespread and violent protest movement France has seen since 1968. This research highlights the resemblances and dissimilarities between the Yellow Vests and other Occupy movements. We find similarities in movement origins around suddenly revealed economic issues and relative deprivation. We also find that the Yellow Vests resemble other Occupy movements in terms of a combined strategy of a diffused and countrywide occupation of public spaces alongside weekly mass protest, and a lack of central organization and rejection of leadership. The Yellow Vests, however, differ from other Occupy movements in the extreme violence of the weekly demonstrations. Despite its rejection by the media, violence did not affect widespread public approval. In addition, the Yellow Vests achieved most movement objectives in spite of the lack of effective leadership with whom politicians could negotiate.     

A general maximum likelihood analysis of measurement error in generalized linear models

This paper describes an EM algorithm for maximum likelihood estimation in generalized linear models (GLMs) with continuous measurement error in the explanatory variables. The algorithm is an adaptation of that for nonparametric maximum likelihood (NPML) estimation in overdispersed GLMs described in Aitkin (Statistics and Computing 6: 251–262, 1996). The measurement error distribution can be of any specified form, though the implementation described assumes normal measurement error. Neither the reliability nor the distribution of the true score of the variables with measurement error has to be known, nor are instrumental variables or replication required.Standard errors can be obtained by omitting individual variables from the model, as in Aitkin (1996).Several examples are given, of normal and Bernoulli response variables.     

Simpson's paradox and the Bayes factor

A counter-example presented by Lindley to Aitkin's posterior Bayes factor is examined. The paradoxical feature of the counter-example is found to be a simple case of Simpson's paradox.     

Circumcising the body: negotiating difference and belonging in Germany

ABSTRACT

The circumcision debate in Germany in 2012 is an exemplary case for symbolic struggles over national boundaries. The debate became a site for the negotiation of traditions practiced by religious minorities. We ask, first, how the clinical gaze constitutes Muslim and Jewish others. Second, we investigate how ‘writing around’ the debate’s center, bodily integrity, became meaningful through analogies to other practices said to harm it. We compare newspaper coverage in Germany, Israel and Turkey, and reveal transnational discursive dynamics that transgress national boundaries. We show how ‘otherness’ of Muslims and Jews remains present in a self-perceived secular, liberal imaginary.