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Truck driver fatigue is a major safety issue for truck drivers and the public in general. Although training prepares drivers to effectively operate a truck, it tends to minimize the importance of working constraints faced daily on-the-job and thus reduces its impact on safety and effectiveness. With experience, drivers develop skills to combat fatigue. Documenting these skills can contribute to improved training of apprentices. An ethnographic approach was used to better understand the real-life fatigue management skills of truck drivers. Participant observation was used to analyze the activity of apprentices in training and the activity of truck drivers at work. Observations indicated that training focused on time management and regulations, but did not prepare trainees to manage real-life constraints. Experienced drivers were not merely managing time; rather they were managing working constraints (including time) as a whole. To do so, they used two strategies: managing psycho-physical transformations and dynamic work planning. By integrating psycho-physical preoccupations into all aspects of work and by preparing future drivers to face real-life constraints, we could better train and prepare apprentices. Drivers do develop effective skills to combat fatigue which can improve training and better prepare future drivers to face daily constraints. These improvements can have a significant impact on fatigue and safety in the transportation industry. 相似文献
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In this paper, we discuss some theoretical results and properties of the discrete Weibull distribution, which was introduced by Nakagawa and Osaki [The discrete Weibull distribution. IEEE Trans Reliab. 1975;24:300–301]. We study the monotonicity of the probability mass, survival and hazard functions. Moreover, reliability, moments, p-quantiles, entropies and order statistics are also studied. We consider likelihood-based methods to estimate the model parameters based on complete and censored samples, and to derive confidence intervals. We also consider two additional methods to estimate the model parameters. The uniqueness of the maximum likelihood estimate of one of the parameters that index the discrete Weibull model is discussed. Numerical evaluation of the considered model is performed by Monte Carlo simulations. For illustrative purposes, two real data sets are analyzed. 相似文献
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We propose a class [I,S] of loss functions for modeling the imprecise preferences of the decision maker in Bayesian Decision Theory. This class is built upon two extreme loss functions I and S which reflect the limited information about the loss function. We give an approximation of the set of Bayes actions for every loss function in [I,S] and every prior in a mixture class; if the decision space is a subset of , we obtain the exact set. 相似文献
5.
Consider a firm as an organization that needs to efficiently coordinate several specialized departments in an uncertain environment.
Decision making involves collective planning sessions and decentralized operational processes. In this setting this paper
explores the role of economic modeling through an experimental game. Results support the idea that economic modeling favors
higher performance. Economic modeling facilitates the emergence of common knowledge and the decomposition of a group decision
problem into individual decision problems that are meaningfully interrelated.
This paper was presented at the Porquerolles Summer School on Cognitive Sciences, September 2001. 相似文献
6.
Most system identification approaches and statistical inference methods rely on the availability of the analytic knowledge of the probability distribution function of the system output variables. In the case of dynamic systems modelled by hidden Markov chains or stochastic nonlinear state-space models, these distributions as well as that of the state variables themselves, can be unknown or untractable. In that situation, the usual particle Monte Carlo filters for system identification or likelihood-based inference and model selection methods have to rely, whenever possible, on some hazardous approximations and are often at risk. This review shows how a recent nonparametric particle filtering approach can be efficiently used in that context, not only for consistent filtering of these systems but also to restore these statistical inference methods, allowing, for example, consistent particle estimation of Bayes factors or the generalisation of model parameter change detection sequential tests. Real-life applications of these particle approaches to a microbiological growth model are proposed as illustrations. 相似文献
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How can organisations and territories contribute to maintain a high level of innovation while at the same time adapting to a turbulent environment? We give an answer to this question by mobilizing the concept of resilience. In order to do this, we develop a conception of resilience based on two dimensions. First, an organisational dimension which refers to the capacity of an organisation to manage a disturbance to its environment and to develop a new pathway and, a territorial dimension which refers to the collective capacity of the actors to contribute to facilitate the development of territorial responses to external disturbances. We illustrate this double dimension of resilience by focusing on the role of pivot firm as major actor in a territory. 相似文献
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In this article, small sample properties of the maximum-likelihood estimator (m.l.e.) for the offspring distribution (pk) and its mean m are considered in the context of the simple branching process. A representation theorem is given for the m.l.e. of (Pk) from which the m.l.e. of m is obtained. The case where p0 + p1 + p2 = 1 is studied in detail: numerical results are given for the exact bias of these estimators as a function of the age of the process; a curve fitting analysis expresses the bias of m? as a function of the mean and the variance of the offspring distribution and finally an “approximate m.l.e.” for (pk) is given. 相似文献
10.
Jean-Pierre D. Chateau 《Revue canadienne de statistique》1975,3(1):81-104
This paper deals with the aggregation problem of autoregressive functions. The macrocoefficients of the simplified specification are separated into three components, namely, a true value, an aggregation bias, and an implicit sampling error. Relative importance of these components is studied by using empirical data on a sample of 40 Canadian firms. The notion of aggregation gain of Grunfeld and Griliches is also examined. 相似文献