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1.
Impacts of complex emergencies or relief interventions have often been evaluated by absolute mortality compared to international standardized mortality rates. A better evaluation would be to compare with local baseline mortality of the affected populations. A projection of population-based survival data into time of emergency or intervention based on information from before the emergency may create a local baseline reference. We find a log-transformed Gaussian time series model where standard errors of the estimated rates are included in the variance to have the best forecasting capacity. However, if time-at-risk during the forecasted period is known then forecasting might be done using a Poisson time series model with overdispersion. Whatever, the standard error of the estimated rates must be included in the variance of the model either in an additive form in a Gaussian model or in a multiplicative form by overdispersion in a Poisson model. Data on which the forecasting is based must be modelled carefully concerning not only calendar-time trends but also periods with excessive frequency of events (epidemics) and seasonal variations to eliminate residual autocorrelation and to make a proper reference for comparison, reflecting changes over time during the emergency. Hence, when modelled properly it is possible to predict a reference to an emergency-affected population based on local conditions. We predicted childhood mortality during the war in Guinea-Bissau 1998-1999. We found an increased mortality in the first half-year of the war and a mortality corresponding to the expected one in the last half-year of the war. 相似文献
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Starting in the 2000s, Denmark and Norway have undergone extensive restructuring of their health-related social benefit programmes, including how they are governed. Several reforms have sought to enhance inter-sectoral collaboration. Aiming at ensuring patients’ faster return to work, policy-makers have instituted economic incentives to both individuals and the health and welfare organisations who handle them. Through an institutional logics approach, this paper explores how hospital social workers in these countries are experiencing these changes. The ‘social’ part of post-treatment care and rehabilitation receives more attention in the Norwegian institutional set-up than in the Danish, and whilst challenges are experienced in both countries, in group interviews Danish social workers in particular express concerns about the implications of the accelerated return-to-work focus. In both countries, they report increasing difficulties in ‘making their way through’ the state-municipal bureaucracy. However, by drawing on the formal health knowledge derived from medical settings and the symbolic capital it bestows on them, they often manage to negotiate the work-and-welfare services, thereby transforming the social context for the patients. 相似文献
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Outlier detection algorithms are intimately connected with robust statistics that down‐weight some observations to zero. We define a number of outlier detection algorithms related to the Huber‐skip and least trimmed squares estimators, including the one‐step Huber‐skip estimator and the forward search. Next, we review a recently developed asymptotic theory of these. Finally, we analyse the gauge, the fraction of wrongly detected outliers, for a number of outlier detection algorithms and establish an asymptotic normal and a Poisson theory for the gauge. 相似文献
5.
Giuseppe Cavaliere Heino Bohn Nielsen Anders Rahbek 《Econometrica : journal of the Econometric Society》2015,83(2):813-831
It is well known that the finite‐sample properties of tests of hypotheses on the co‐integrating vectors in vector autoregressive models can be quite poor, and that current solutions based on Bartlett‐type corrections or bootstrap based on unrestricted parameter estimators are unsatisfactory, in particular in those cases where also asymptotic χ2 tests fail most severely. In this paper, we solve this inference problem by showing the novel result that a bootstrap test where the null hypothesis is imposed on the bootstrap sample is asymptotically valid. That is, not only does it have asymptotically correct size, but, in contrast to what is claimed in existing literature, it is consistent under the alternative. Compared to the theory for bootstrap tests on the co‐integration rank (Cavaliere, Rahbek, and Taylor, 2012), establishing the validity of the bootstrap in the framework of hypotheses on the co‐integrating vectors requires new theoretical developments, including the introduction of multivariate Ornstein–Uhlenbeck processes with random (reduced rank) drift parameters. Finally, as documented by Monte Carlo simulations, the bootstrap test outperforms existing methods. 相似文献
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Sandström Glenn Namatovu Fredinah Ineland Jens Larsson Daniel Ng Nawi Stattin Mikael 《Population research and policy review》2021,40(2):163-185
Population Research and Policy Review - This study investigates how the probability to live alone has developed among working age individuals with and without disabilities in Sweden during the... 相似文献
9.
The intersection of class origin and immigration background in structuring social capital: the role of transnational ties
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The study investigates inequalities in access to social capital based on social class origin and immigration background and examines the role of transnational ties in explaining these differences. Social capital is measured with a position generator methodology that separates between national and transnational contacts in a sample of young adults in Sweden with three parental backgrounds: at least one parent born in Iran or Yugoslavia, or two Sweden‐born parents. The results show that having socioeconomically advantaged parents is associated with higher levels of social capital. Children of immigrants are found to have a greater access to social capital compared to individuals with native background, and the study shows that this is related to transnational contacts, parents’ education and social class in their country of origin. Children of immigrants tend to have more contacts abroad, while there is little difference in the amount of contacts living in Sweden across the three groups. It is concluded that knowledge about immigration group resources help us predict its member's social capital, but that the analysis also needs to consider how social class trajectories and migration jointly structure national and transnational contacts. 相似文献
10.
Informal Food Production in the Enlarged European Union 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
How widespread is the production of food in old and new member states of the European Union and what is the social meaning or logic of such activities? We show that growing food is (a) more widespread in former communist countries than in traditional market economies and (b) is predominantly a hobby or recreational activity in affluent countries, but a coping strategy in reaction to experienced difficulties in making ends meet in poorer nations, and especially so in the former communist countries. 相似文献