Informal Work in Nonmetropolitan Pennsylvania1

Abstract It is well recognized that the informal economy—unregulated economic activities that generate real or in-kind income—features prominently in the day-to-day lives of many in the developing world. Researchers have begun to explore the informal economy in developed countries but this work has focussed primarily on urban areas to the neglect of rural areas. In this paper the nature and correlates of informal work in nonmetropolitan Pennsylvania are described through an analysis of survey data on 505 families. Results indicate that participation in informal activities is widespread, is not more typical of the poor, does not contribute greatly to family income on average but does help many poor families weather difficult economic times, is both economically and noneconomically motivated, and, net of other sociodemographic variables, is positively related to rurality of residence and formal labor supply.     

Creating a reference to a complex emergency situation using time series methods: war in Guinea-Bissau 1998-1999

Impacts of complex emergencies or relief interventions have often been evaluated by absolute mortality compared to international standardized mortality rates. A better evaluation would be to compare with local baseline mortality of the affected populations. A projection of population-based survival data into time of emergency or intervention based on information from before the emergency may create a local baseline reference. We find a log-transformed Gaussian time series model where standard errors of the estimated rates are included in the variance to have the best forecasting capacity. However, if time-at-risk during the forecasted period is known then forecasting might be done using a Poisson time series model with overdispersion. Whatever, the standard error of the estimated rates must be included in the variance of the model either in an additive form in a Gaussian model or in a multiplicative form by overdispersion in a Poisson model. Data on which the forecasting is based must be modelled carefully concerning not only calendar-time trends but also periods with excessive frequency of events (epidemics) and seasonal variations to eliminate residual autocorrelation and to make a proper reference for comparison, reflecting changes over time during the emergency. Hence, when modelled properly it is possible to predict a reference to an emergency-affected population based on local conditions. We predicted childhood mortality during the war in Guinea-Bissau 1998-1999. We found an increased mortality in the first half-year of the war and a mortality corresponding to the expected one in the last half-year of the war.     

The sample autocorrelation function of I(1) processes

In case of a random walk the theoretical autocorrelations tend to one asymptotically. The sample autocorrelations, however, may decline rather fast even with large samples. We will explain this observation by deriving the asymptotic distribution that turns out to be closely related to the Dickey-Fuller (1979) distribution. Moreover we discuss the behaviour of the sample autocorrelations of integrated MA(1) and AR(1) processes. In order to prove our results we consider more general I(1) processes and apply the functional central limit theorem injected to time series analysis by Phillips (1987). We obtain unit root tests that are based on autocorrelation estimators of higher lags. We discuss their finite sample behaviour experimentally.     

Adult Drug Treatment Courts: A Review

Drug treatment courts (DTCs), an alternative to traditional criminal courts, provide an innovative way to legally process some drug offenders. The origin and recent growth of the drug court system in the USA can be explained as an unintended consequence of a failing 'war on drugs'. In this article, we discuss the spread of adult DTCs throughout the USA, the main components of drug courts, controversies surrounding DTCs, and some criticisms of drug courts. We summarize the recent evaluations of adult DTCs, and highlight various DTC factors that have been found to reduce individual drug use and criminal activity. We also offer suggestions for future research on DTCs and conclude with policy recommendations.     

Statistical software packages for PCs — A market survey

The increase of statistical software applications for PCs is caused by decreasing hardware costs and dramatically enhanced PC performance. Whereas in the past the domain of statistical computing has been reserved to mainframe solutions, a great number of new software packages for PCs have come out in the last five years. Therefore, the producers of established mainframe software were also forced to offer PC-based solutions. By limiting a market analysis to products with a medium set of well known statistical methods, the immense number of available products is reduced to about fifty systems. We ordered an evaluation copy of these systems to test the numerical quality, the system speed, and the performance of several procedures. Seventeen packages were made available for an extensive examination. This paper will (1) discuss the problems and the solutions of obtaining a complete and correct datamatrix that describes the entire market and (2) present the results of a comparative market analysis.     

Student desires for a university drug education program

A questionnaire was designed to determine the type of drug education program most desired by undergraduate students attending a major university. The survey was to provide the basis for a comprehensive drug education program. The 101 item questionnaire elicited responses from 656 undergraduates in categories ranging from knowledge base to credible information sources. The analysis of student desires as they relate to program design is included in this article. The students strongly believed the university should provide a drug education program. In particular they desired a credit course dealing with both drugs and alcohol. They also wanted regularly published articles on drugs in school publications. The most credible knowledge sources were PhDs and MDs. Students also wanted contact with former drug users. More than half the students believed that values clarification and "coping skills" training would decrease their drug use. In general more women than men were likely to utilize such resources.     

Marriage and its transition in Bangladesh

The author examines developments in marriage patterns in Bangladesh in light of social, cultural, and economic conditions. Previous literature on the subject is used to discuss Muslim marriage, Hindu marriage, child marriage, mate selection and social mobility, and the question of a marriage squeeze. "The analysis presents evidence that the society is experiencing a change in its family formation, mating process and family type. This transition is to some extent towards the characteristics of [the] Western World, but in a poor economy. Part of this transition is due to the effect of modernization and part due to increasing poverty."     

Sociological aspects of migration policy: the case of the Federal Republic of Germany

In March 1980 the Federal Republic of Germany (FRG) adopted guidelines for the further development of migration policy in which the social integration of 2nd- and 3rd-generation foreigners was a priority of migration policy in the future. However, there was no corresponding information and education for the German population on the envisaged integration of foreigners. At the end of 1981 the FRG was still not a country of immigration. From 1980-1982 the pressure of public opinion to restrict the number of incoming foreigners and the latent hostility towards foreigners constantly increased. In February 1982, the Federal Government adapted the following principles for their immigration policy: 1) to limit effectively further immigration of foreigners into the FRG; 2) to strengthen the desire of foreigners to return to their native countries; and 3) to improve the economic and social integration of foreigners who have lived in the FRG for many years and to define their rights of residence more precisely. In 1982, migration policy became an important aspect of German domestic affairs. The 1st decision on migration policy taken by the Federal Government (Christian-Democrats and Liberals) was to offer financial incentives for foreigners to remigrate. An opinion poll conducted in late 1981 showed that 1/2 the German population was hostile to foreigners, 58% of Germans wanted to see the number of foreigners limited or reduced, and 62% disapproved of foreign workers being allowed to bring their families into Germany. The Remigration Assistance Act of 1983 has had the following effects: 1) foreigners have become uncertain about their plans for the future, and 2) it gives the German population the illusion that the "problem caused by foreigners" will be automatically solved by their return. Young foreigners encounter unfavorable situations in the training and employment sectors. Another obstacle in their way is hostility to foreigners. A survey in 1985 showed that most older foreigners planned to return to their native country, while most younger ones did not. It is essential for the 1-sided emphasis on remigration assistance to be abandoned in the FRG's migration policy. The commission on migration set up by the Federal Government has also emphasized that the integration of foreigners is a fundamental element of migration policy.     

Time use in child care and housework and the total cost of children

The use of time for child care and housework among Swedish families is investigated. We allow the effect of children on child care and housework to vary by age of the child and also by whether the child is cared for outside the home or not. Our estimates allow us to compute the total cost of children in the form of the cost of time, and the cost of goods, services and housing.The result shows that time used for child care decreases sharply with the age of the child but this is not the case for time used for other housework. Considerable economies of scale is found to prevail for time used for child care. Child care outside the home reduces time use for other housework but the effect on time used for child care is quite small. For the average family time use cost make up more than half of total child cost. Our estimates indicate that decreased time use cost for children caused by care outside the home are not very different from a typical parental fee for public day care.This research was supported by a grant from the Swedish Council of Social Research (SFR). We thank Lennart Flood for useful comments on an earlier version.     

Today's second generation: evidence from the 1990 U.S. census

"The prospects for today's second generation will be considerably shaped by their current social, economic and demographic status. This article provides a statistical portrait of children of immigrants by analyzing data from the 1990 U.S. Census of Population and Housing. With the second generation defined as children under age 18 with at least one foreign-born parent, the study describes place of residence; household demographic, social and economic circumstances; household head's socioeconomic status; and characteristics of children themselves. Data on second-generation children are broken down by year of immigration of parents and child's nativity. Data for children with native-born parents are provided for comparison."