Estimation of flood frequencies from data sets with outliers using mixed distribution functions

In this paper the estimation of high return period quantiles of the flood peak and volume in the Kolubara River basin are carried out. Estimation of flood frequencies is carried out on a data set containing high outliers which are identified by the Rosner’s test. Simultaneously, low outliers are determined by the multiple Grubbs–Beck. The next step involved the usage of the mixed distribution functions applied to a data set from three populations: floods with low outliers, normal floods and floods with high outliers. The contribution of the data set with low outliers is neglected, since it should underestimate the flood quantiles with large return periods. Consequently, the best fitted mixed distribution from the applied types (EV1, GEV, P3 and LP3) was determined by using the minimum standard error of fit.     

The Promethean role of Europe: changing narratives of the political and scholarly left

ABSTRACT

The gradual abandoning of the ‘socialism in one country’ doctrine during the post-war period and the intensive transformation of European social democracy in the 1990s pushed social democratic politicians and intellectuals into the front line of advocates of a unified and powerful Europe. They contributed to the inclusion of social democratic and environmentalist values in the EU’s official narrative. The success of European integration and George W. Bush’s presidency created the narrative of the Promethean role of Europe. Scholars with a social democratic or environmentalist background created this narrative and it was also shaped by authors’ national contexts.     

A call for more elaborate and transparent pension data to inform policy‐making: A critical examination of World Bank data for Eastern Europe

This article offers a critical analysis of the methods by means of which data relating to the performance of second pillar pension schemes are collated, compared and reported. This is done with regard to the performance of mandatory private second pillar pension funds in Eastern Europe. By critically examining data published in a number of World Bank studies, and through the identification of data problems and irregularities, the article argues that a much more elaborate and transparent approach to the collation, comparative analysis and reporting of data is needed. Required is the establishment of a consensus regarding what should represent a robust basis for making credible policy recommendations, not least with regard to pension re‐reforms in the countries of Eastern Europe and elsewhere. In the absence of such a consensus, unresolved data problems and irregularities may potentially continue to influence the formulation of incomplete national policy conclusions regarding the performance of second pillar pension funds and, in turn, the ability of policy‐makers to evaluate appropriately the need for, and assess the feasibility of implementing in a sustainable manner, pension re‐reform.     

Exchange Rate Policy in Serbia

In August 2006, Serbia adopted an inflation targeting regime as its monetary regime. The initial period of implementation of this regime was characterized by an extremely high capital inflow and appreciation of the exchange rate of the dinar. Under such conditions, the selected monetary policy regime functioned well. However, at the end of 2008, when the global financial crisis caused the outflow of foreign capital, deterioration of foreign borrowing conditions and an increase in inflationary expectations, the dinar lost about 25 per cent of its value within a relatively short period, despite the interventions of the National Bank of Serbia in the foreign exchange market. Therefore, the authors of this paper raise a dilemma whether Serbia conducts an adequate policy of the exchange rate of the dinar. The authors point out that, at the moment, the policy of a free floating exchange rate is not adequate for Serbia. As an alternative, a two nominal-anchor regime—inflation and the exchange rate—is proposed.     

SWOT Analysis of Serbia and Montenegro’s Accession to the EU

The first generation of reforms in Serbia, especially in 2001–2002, was carried out “by the book” but the initial successful results blurred and concealed numerous problems that, especially in 2003, were becoming more evident and, finally, caused a delay in, and the blockade of, the further reform processes. It turned out that the political élite failed to reach a consensus on the second generation of reforms which, above all, refers to the rounding-off and functioning of the institutions of a market economy and the rule of law in full. After the October 2000 changes, relations between the FRY/SM and the European Union have altered dramatically. Joining the EU became strategic priority of our foreign policy, as well as reintegration of the SM in the international community. Nevertheless, these processes have their strengths and weaknesses, potential opportunities and threats, which are summarized in this paper.     

Migration and retirement in the life course: an event history approach

Migration at older ages is commonly explained by reference to the search for greater amenity, and subsequently by the onset of greater dependency, but the links between mobility and specific life course transitions have rarely been articulated. We aim to establish the timing of migration in relation to retirement from the labour force, and to determine how its intensity varies around the retirement event. We also seek to identify how household and individual characteristics shape the propensity and timing of migration, differentiating moves according to distance and with particular attention to the characteristics of the spouse. Data are drawn from the first six waves of the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia survey, a nationally representative panel study covering the period 2001–2006. Migration events are identified relative to retirement and event history methods are employed to establish the characteristics predisposing households to relocate around retirement. Results demonstrate that retirement acts as a trigger to migration but the propensity to move falls as retirement age rises and the hazard is increasingly concentrated in the year retirement occurs. Within this framework the presence, health, education and retirement status of a spouse exert a significant influence on the likelihood of migration, though with different effects for long and short distance moves. Results highlight the importance of variations in underlying life-course trajectories in shaping retirement migration and demonstrate that only a minority of moves at ages 55–69 are directly associated with retirement, underlining the need for caution when identifying retirement migration using age as a proxy measure.     

Male Medical Students’ Gender-Role Conflict Is Associated With Their Discomfort With Dealing With Patients’ Sexual Health Issues

Recommendations suggest that more sexuality education be implemented in medical school curricula to increase students’ comfort with regard to dealing with sexual health issues. For male medical students the adherence to masculine gender-role norms may also contribute to discomfort regarding dealing with this intimate topic. The current study analyzed whether male medical students’ knowledge or masculine gender-role conflict (GRC) was associated with their comfort with regard to asking future patients about sexual health issues. A total of 164 male medical students (M_age = 24.4, SD = 2.4) participated. A questionnaire assessed students’ self-perceived knowledge of sexual health, how prepared they felt with regard to this topic, and their comfort with regard to asking future patients about sexual health issues. The Gender Role Conflict Scale—Short Form (GRCS-SF) was used to assess GRC. Knowledge was positively associated with comfort. Male students who indicated difficulty expressing affection toward men or expressing emotions were likely to report being uncomfortable asking patients about sexual health issues. Students should be made aware of gender-role norms. Alongside knowledge transfer, the discussion of strategies for overcoming the barriers set by gender-role norms should be part of sexuality education.     

The development of infants’ sensitivity to native versus non-native rhythm

Speech rhythm is considered one of the first windows into the native language, and the taxonomy of rhythm classes is commonly used to explain early language discrimination. Relying on formal rhythm classification is problematic for two reasons. First, it is not known to which extent infants’ sensitivity to language variation is attributable to rhythm alone, and second, it is not known how infants discriminate languages not classified in any of the putative rhythm classes. Employing a central-fixation preference paradigm with natural stimuli, this study tested whether infants differentially attend to native versus nonnative varieties that differ only in temporal rhythm cues, and both of which are rhythmically unclassified. An analysis of total looking time did not detect any rhythm preferences at any age. First-look duration, arguably more closely reflecting infants’ underlying perceptual sensitivities, indicated age-specific preferences for native versus non-native rhythm: 4-month-olds seemed to prefer the native-, and 6-month-olds the non-native language-variety. These findings suggest that infants indeed acquire native rhythm cues rather early, by the 4th month, supporting the theory that rhythm can bootstrap further language development. Our data on infants’ processing of rhythmically unclassified languages suggest that formal rhythm classification does not determine infants’ ability to discriminate language varieties.     

A macro‐financial analysis of pension system reforms in emerging Europe: The performance of IRAs and policy lessons for Serbia

The article explores the initial macro‐financial performance of partial pension system “privatizations”— involving privately‐managed individual retirement savings accounts (IRAs) — undertaken in many emerging European countries. Using empirical data for a period of close to a decade, the evidence shows that returns on privately‐managed IRAs have been below the implicit rate of return of public pay‐as‐you‐go (PAYG) systems. High operating costs and undeveloped capital markets are identified as major contributing factors to the failure of privately‐managed IRAs to meet reform expectations. In light of empirical evidence, Serbia is advised to focus on parametric PAYG reforms and to avoid reforms that involve the partial “privatization” of the pension system.