Communicating Actionable Risk for Terrorism and Other Hazards⋆

We propose a shift in emphasis when communicating to people when the objective is to motivate household disaster preparedness actions. This shift is to emphasize the communication of preparedness actions (what to do about risk) rather than risk itself. We have called this perspective “communicating actionable risk,” and it is grounded in diffusion of innovations and communication theories. A representative sample of households in the nation was analyzed using a path analytic framework. Preparedness information variables (including content, density, and observation), preparedness mediating variables (knowledge, perceived effectiveness, and milling), and preparedness actions taken were modeled. Clear results emerged that provide a strong basis for communicating actionable risk, and for the conclusion both that information observed (seeing preparedness actions that other have taken) and information received (receiving recommendations about what preparedness actions to take) play key, although different, roles in motivating preparedness actions among the people in our nation.     

Strategy-proof and anonymous rule in queueing problems: a relationship between equity and efficiency

We consider a relationship between equity and efficiency in queueing problems. We show that under strategy-proofness, anonymity in welfare implies queue-efficiency. Furthermore, by combining the result of Kayı and Ramaekers (Games Econ Behav 68:220–232, 2010) with ours, we also give a characterization of the class of rules that satisfy strategy-proofness, anonymity in welfare, and budget-balance.     

Domain expansion of the pivotal mechanism

We propose a mechanism for the provision of public goods called the extended pivotal mechanism, which works on wider environments than quasi-linear ones. This mechanism is shown to be a natural extension of the pivotal (Clarke) mechanism because the restriction of the mechanism to the quasi-linear domain coincides with the pivotal mechanism, and because it is the only mechanism satisfying strategy-proofness, an efficient condition (partial efficiency), and an equity condition (the welfare lower bound property), which characterize the pivotal mechanism.     

KAIGAI-SHIJO Socialization in Toronto

Abstract  This article is based on a study of kaigai-shijo (children of Japanese temporary overseas residents) in Toronto, Canada. Although the theme of kikoku-shijo (returnee children) has been studied in considerable detail by Japanese (and a few American) scholars, the phase that precedes the return to Japan, that is, the children's experience while overseas has been relatively neglected. The article argues that kaigai-shijo are not only a subject worth studying in their own right, but that understanding their experience is crucial in order to fully appreciate the phenomenon of kikoku-shijo . The researcher conducted a study of kaigai-shijo in Toronto, focusing on their patterns of socialization. While taking into account findings from the few previous studies on kaigai-shijo , this study used concepts from the North American literature on socialization and ethnic groups studies. kaigai-shijo socialization was thus conceptualized as the combination of two processes: the adoption of host cultural patterns, and the retention of Japanese cultural patterns. Three main variations in kaigai-shijo socialization were found: 1) 'Host culture oriented', 2) Japanese culture-oriented, and 3) 'dual'. Some of the most relevant factors in explaining these variations were the age of the child (at the time of departure from Japan and at the time of the research), the parents' strategy of adaptation, and the length of stay in the host country (actual and remaining).     

Simple Computation of Maximum Likelihood Estimates in Latent Class Model with Equality and Constant Constraints

A simple computational method for estimation of parameters via a type of EM algorithm is proposed in restricted latent class analysis, where equality and constant constraints are considered. These constraints create difficulty in estimation. In order to simply and stably estimate parameters in restricted latent class analysis, a simple computational method using only first-order differentials is proposed, where the step-halving method is adopted. A simulation study shows that in almost all cases the new method gives parameter sequences monotonously increasing the Q-function in the EM algorithm. Analysis of real data is provided.     

Asymptotic theory for fractionally integrated asymmetric power ARCH models

Consistency and asymptotic normality of quasi-maximum likelihood estimators (QMLEs) for the fractionally integrated asymmetric power ARCH (FIAPARCH) process are proved. The moment conditions are assumed only for standardized errors. We show the properties for a wide range of QMLEs including Gaussian QMLE.     

Potential roles of small and linear habitat fragments in satoyama landscapes for conservation of grassland plant species

By comparing with the historic semi-natural grassland and woodland vegetation data compiled in the 1970s and 1980s, we aimed to reveal potential roles of small and linear habitat fragments remaining in the urbanized satoyama landscape (i.e., agricultural landscape) in Japan for conservation of grassland plant species. TWINSPAN cluster analysis differentiated the current vegetation from historic one. Current vegetation of Miscanthus grassland was classified into two different groups and one of the two was equivalent to current understory vegetation of fragmented woodland. The linear woodland edge vegetation along the roads was classified into one group and separated from the other current vegetation groups. The current vegetation groups were characterized by higher richness of exotic species than historic vegetation groups. Detrended correspondence analysis (DCA) revealed that there were no groups of current vegetation that is equivalent to historic woodland understory vegetation. The vegetation quality of the current group of Miscanthus grassland and secondary woodland remaining on urban public properties, and the group of linear roadside vegetation were almost equivalent to that of historic semi-natural grassland. Both of the small and linear habitat fragments might have functioned as habitats for grassland species under regular mowing management. Although small and linear habitat fragments would not be sufficient for sustaining grassland populations in the future, these habitats can serve as key reservoirs for grassland species recovery in the conservation and restoration of grassland communities in the urbanized satoyama landscape.     

Strategy-proofness versus efficiency on the Cobb-Douglas domain of exchange economies

We study the optimal design of an organization in which a team of fallible individuals with heterogeneous abilities collectively decides whether to accept or reject projects. Conventional wisdom tells us that the opinion of those individuals with better decision-making abilities should be given a “larger” weight in the decision. We formalize this intuition in a sequential evaluation process and provide specific ways to characterize the optimal decision weights, as well as demonstrate that the magnitude of the weights depends on the relative abilities of the decision-makers, as well as where the decision-makers are placed in the project evaluation sequence.     

Asymptotic Inference with Incomplete Data

This article discusses asymptotic theory for the maximum likelihood estimator based on incomplete data. Although much literature has implicitly assumed the basic properties of the estimator, such as consistency and asymptotic normality, it is hard to find their precise and comprehensive proofs. In this article, we first show that under MAR an estimator based on the likelihood function ignoring the missing-data mechanism is strongly consistent. The estimator is then shown to be asymptotically normal. When the data are NMAR and when the data are MAR without parameter distinctness, the consistency and the asymptotic normality are shown. Several examples are provided.