Ex Ante Project Evaluation and the Complexity of Early Decision-Making

This paper looks beyond more traditional evaluation activities to focus primarily on evaluation up front. It suggests that the early appraisal of an investment case or a project should apply essentially the same evaluation criteria that will be used in ex post evaluation, and thus increase the likelihood of a successful project outcome. However, the initial plan might be altered as result of subsequent analysis, assessment, negotiation, positioning, and the exercise of power. The last part of this paper presents an empirical study of 23 projects, which examines the complexity of processes that occur in the idea- and decision phases.     

Union Bargaining,Wage Differentials and Employment

Abstract. Reviewing empirical studies concerning the corporatism-flexibility-performance nexus the paper discusses decentralized and centralized bargaining systems. Revenue pay systems, concession bargaining and two-tier wage systems as means to enhance wage flexibility at the firm level are also considered. Both theoretical and empirical evidence is presented, showing that unions are bargaining for greater employment security for the already employed (the insiders). In return, unions are ready to accept greater wage flexibility and even wage decreases. By contrast, the insider-outsider theory does suggest how unions may accentuate involuntary unemployment, because there may be ways in which a union can help to raise the wages of the insiders without reducing their chances of continued employment.     

Have the relative employment prospects for the low-skilled deteriorated after all?

Has the relative unemployment propensity for the low-skilled increased during the 1990s? We address this question empirically, based on two notions of low skills; i) low education, and ii) low ability, conditioned on education and work experience. Ability is identified by previous earnings. Evaluated by the education-based measure, we find that unemployment propensity has not developed unfavourably for the low-skilled. Evaluated by the ability-based measure, it has. We uncover a steady deterioration of employment prospects for persons with low ability relative to others with similar formal qualifications. The adverse employment effects of being low-skilled are stronger the higher is formal education.All correspondence to Knut Røed. The paper is part of the project Sorting, exposed groups and labour market programs financed by the Research Council of Norway. We wish to thank Rolf Aaberge, Paul Gertler, Harald Goldstein, Karl Ove Moene, Jon Strand, Steinar Strøm, Asbjrn Rødseth and an anonymous referee for helpful comments. Responsible editor: John F. Ermisch.     

Industrial engineering: a dynamic response to change?

A study of industrial engineering in seven European countries was carried out for the purpose of comparing European organization and practice in that field with the American situation as revealed by an earlier survey. The data obtained relate to organizational variables such as distinctiveness, location, degree of centralization and contact with headquarters; staffing factors such as number of personnel and their education, and the use made of specified techniques. Changes and trends in these terms are then explained. The data suggest that Europe and the U.S. are essentially similar. Finally, the future of industrial engineering is explained in terms of the demands which will be made on industry and the contribution which industrial engineering can make to meeting these.     

Ain't Behavin': Forecast Errors and Measurement Errors in Early GNP Estimates

Revisions of the early GNP estimates may contain elements of measurement errors as well as forecast errors. These types of error behave differently but need to satisfy a common set of criteria for well-behavedness. This article tests these criteria for U.S. GNP revisions. The tests are similar to tests of rationality and are based on the generalized method of moments estimator. The flash, 15-day, and 45-day estimates are found to be ill behaved, but the 75-day estimate satisfies the criteria for well-behavedness.     

Unemployment Insurance and Underemployment

Should unemployment insurance (UI) systems provide coverage for underemployed job seekers? Based on a statistical analysis of Norwegian unemployment spells, we conclude that the answer to this question is yes. Allowing insured job seekers to retain partial UI benefits during periods of insufficient part‐time work not only reduces UI expenditures during the part‐time work period, but it also unambiguously reduces the time until a regular self‐supporting job is found. Probable explanations are that even small temporary part‐time jobs provide access to useful vacancy information and that such jobs are used by employers as a screening device when hiring from the unemployment pool.     

Multisystemic therapy project in Sweden: what factors affect the tendency of social workers to refer subjects to the research project?

This article examines some of the factors that may have affected the tendency for social workers to refer adolescents to a randomised controlled study of multisystemic therapy (MST). If we are to improve integration between researchers and the clinical setting in the future, it is important to consider those factors that affect implementation of research projects and evidence-based treatment methods. Evidence-based methods that lack the support of clinicians will have problems surviving in clinical practice. In the present study, we found that social workers' treatment ideology was associated with referral rate. Social workers who sympathised with the ideology on which MST is based referred patients to the project to a greater extent. Moreover, we found that the perception of a good work climate and good social support correlated positively with the referral rate from the unit. The results suggest that when implementing evidence-based methods, or research projects on treatment methods, researchers should consider whether the method is consistent with the current treatment ideology within the unit. Working conditions in the unit should also be considered.     

Will oil markets tighten again? A survey of policies to manage possible oil supply disruptions

The effects of an oil supply disruption on the U.S. economy are analyzed along with the various policy options. Part of the analysis is based on a computerized model of the U.S. economy and the world oil market. Micro as well as macroeconomic issues are considered. The paper argues against the use of price controls and allocations and also against a disruption tariff used as a stand-alone measure. It advocates the use of some stabilizing macroeconomic measures and a temporary producer tax similar to the windfall profits tax.