Bayesian MARS

A Bayesian approach to multivariate adaptive regression spline (MARS) fitting (Friedman, 1991) is proposed. This takes the form of a probability distribution over the space of possible MARS models which is explored using reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo methods (Green, 1995). The generated sample of MARS models produced is shown to have good predictive power when averaged and allows easy interpretation of the relative importance of predictors to the overall fit.     

DYNAMIC INTERACTION OF PRICE AND DESIGN QUALITY FOR PRODUCTS WITH CONVEX PRODUCTION COSTS

Price and design quality define value for customers and are often used by firms to position products in the marketplace. Setting price and quality level on a new product for the first time and making appropriate changes over time to these variables to reflect changing conditions in the market requires careful coordination of design, manufacturing, and marketing variables. We present a control theoretic model to study the complex interaction among price, quality, and cost during the life cycle of a product. Our model considers the major design-manufacturing-marketing tradeoffs and helps determine optimal pricing, design quality, and production strategies in a dynamic environment with convex production costs.