Using "Bud World Party" attendance to predict adolescent alcohol use and beliefs about drinking

This study explored the association between attendance at the "Bud World Party," a family entertainment venue created by Anheuser-Busch for the 2002 Winter Olympics, and alcohol-related beliefs and current drinking behaviors for a group of 7th and 8th graders who attend a middle school in close proximity to the downtown Salt Lake City plaza where the exhibit and related events were located. Data were collected via a questionnaire administered to 283 students 30 days after the closing ceremonies.. Logistic regression was used to predict recent alcohol consumption. Significant predictors were race (non-white) (OR = 3.9), religiosity (OR = .72), having a parent who drinks (OR = 4.8), the number of best friends who drink (OR = 2.5), and the interaction for "Bud World Party" attendance and gender (OR = 33.2). Post-hoc analysis of the interaction effect indicated that the relationship between "Bud World Party" attendance and recent alcohol consumption is moderated by gender. Girls who visited "Bud World Party" were more likely than the boys to have consumed alcohol in the past 30 days. In addition, the girls who visited "Bud World Party" were more likely to believe that drinking would increase their chances of popularity at school than the students who did not.     

Defence planning: The uncertainty factor

Failures to predict the course of future conflicts are historically even more numerous than failures to predict the weapons with which they would be fought. Defence has to do with a two-sided activity of conflict and confrontation and in that there is a built-in minimum 50 per cent failure rate. Lack of opportunity, for continuous or even frequent comparison of prediction with reality compounds the defence planner's difficulties. Political decisions on defence purport to be derived from military predictions among other factors, but for practical purposes, have to be regarded as a major element of unpredictability in their own right. Bred in this tradition, the defence planner puts a bold front on things, dreams up scenarios, and keeps his fingers crossed. Knowing that, if he has got them wrong, the ships, tanks and aircraft, will come in useful in the conflicts and confrontations ahead.     

Adolescents' attention to traditional and graphic tobacco warning labels: an eye-tracking approach

The objective of this study was determine if the inclusion of Canadian-style graphic images would improve the degree to which adolescents attend to, and subsequently are able to recall, novel warning messages in tobacco magazine advertising. Specifically, our goal was to determine if the inclusion of graphic images would (1) increase visual attention, as measured by eye movement patterns and fixation density, and (2) improve memory for tobacco advertisements among a group of 12 to 14 year olds in the western United States. Data were collected from 32 middle school students using a head-mounted eye-tracking device that recorded viewing time, scan path patterns, fixation locations, and dwell time. Participants viewed a series of 20 magazine advertisements that included five U.S. tobacco ads with traditional Surgeon General warning messages and five U.S. tobacco ads that had been modified to include non-traditional messages and Canadian-style graphic images. Following eye tracking, participants completed unaided- and aided-recall exercises. Overall, the participants spent equal amounts of time viewing the advertisements regardless of the type of warning message. However, the warning messages that included the graphic images generated higher levels of visual attention directed specifically toward the message, based on average dwell time and fixation frequency, and were more likely to be accurately recalled than the traditional warning messages.     

Gender differences in poverty among single people in Denmark

This study — based on data from the Danish Welfare Survey of 1986, covering 461 single women and 319 single men — showns that single women have a potential higher risk than single men of becoming poor even when the sexes are categorized by household status, age and relationship to the labour market. These results suggest that the most important reason for higher risk of poverty among women than among single men is not — as often supposed — whether women are single, with or without children, but that gender as such discriminates as to poverty via the different ways men and women are linked to the labour market, This would apparently confirm that which, indirectly, was indicated by previous research on poverty.     

Pop Music and the Search for the Numinous: Exploring the Emergence of the “Secular Hymn” in Post-Modern Culture

A growing body of research suggests that traditional religious institutions are failing to meet the spiritual needs of their adherents, who are now abandoning traditional worship and turning to pop music to fill the void. This article defines and explores the phenomenon of the “secular hymn.” While nonreligious in nature or intent, the secular hymn is a pop song that allows the listener to experience the numinous by creating an affective state that parallels a spiritual or religious state of mind. This article outlines the phenomenon of the secular hymn in pop culture, defines its characteristics, and evaluates several pop songs against these criteria. While some secular hymns may be used in some church settings, the overall trend may exemplify the continuing erosion of traditional religion and the use of explicitly religious music in both public and private settings.     

Event frequency,excitement and desire to gamble,among pathological gamblers

In this study we compared gambling behaviour of 15 pathological gamblers (PG) and 15 non-problem gamblers (NPG) on two conditions of a commercially available slot machine. One condition used a commercially available two-second event frequency (games per minute), while the other condition used an experimental three-second event frequency. The payback percentage (wins relative to losses) and reward frequency (wins over number of games played) varied randomly across conditions. The results showed that PG had significantly higher measures than NPG on time spent gambling, excitement level and desire to play again in the two-second condition. In the three-second condition there were no differences in excitement level and desire to play again. The number of PG playing the maximum time (60 minutes) was reduced in the three-second version, and reward frequency contributed to reduction in time spent gambling. The results may have implications for understanding behavioural mechanisms of pathological gambling among slot machine players.     

The effects of vocational training programmes on the duration of unemployment in Eastern Germany

Summary Vocational training programmes have been the most important active labour market policy instrument in Germany in the last years. However, the still unsatisfying situation of the labour market has raised doubt on the efficiency of these programmes. In this paper, we analyse the effects of the participation in vocational training programmes on the duration of unemployment in Eastern Germany. Based on administrative data for the time between the October 1999 and December 2002 of the Federal Employment Administration¹, we apply a bivariate mixed proportional hazards model. By doing so, we are able to use the information of the timing of treatment as well as observable and unobservable influences to identify the treatment effects. The results show that a participation in vocational training prolongates the unemployment duration in Eastern Germany. Furthermore, the results suggest that locking-in effects are a serious problem of vocational training programmes. The authors thank Heinz Galler and an anonymous referee for valuable comments. The paper has also benefited from fruitful discussion at the annual meeting of the German Statistical Society in 2004, Frankfurt, and in IZA seminar, Bonn. All remaining errors are on our own. Financial support of the IAB, Nuremberg, is gratefully acknowledged.