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We describe a risk-based analytical framework for estimating traffic fatalities that combines the probability of a crash and the probability of fatality in the event of a crash. As an illustrative application, we use the methodology to explore the role of vehicle mix and vehicle prevalence on long-run fatality trends for a range of transportation growth scenarios that may be relevant to developing societies. We assume crash rates between different road users are proportional to their roadway use and estimate case fatality ratios (CFRs) for the different vehicle-vehicle and vehicle-pedestrian combinations. We find that in the absence of road safety interventions, the historical trend of initially rising and then falling fatalities observed in industrialized nations occurred only if motorization was through car ownership. In all other cases studied (scenarios dominated by scooter use, bus use, and mixed use), traffic fatalities rose monotonically. Fatalities per vehicle had a falling trend similar to that observed in historical data from industrialized nations. Regional adaptations of the model validated with local data can be used to evaluate the impacts of transportation planning and safety interventions, such as helmets, seat belts, and enforcement of traffic laws, on traffic fatalities. 相似文献
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Mohd Salehuddin Mohd Zahari Aisyah Tumin Hairul Nizwan Abdul Majid 《Asian Ethnicity》2019,20(4):486-502
ABSTRACTThe migration of the Chinese community to Malacca in the 16th century has enabled the process of cross culturing and culinary acculturation, producing a unique mixture of Baba Nyonya food. Even though Baba Nyonya food is pretty much has been localised (Malay), its Chinese representation cannot be denied. This study aims to assess how the acculturation of the Baba Nyonya community affects Malacca food identity. A quantitative methodology is employed in this study. This study classifies Baba Nyonya food acculturation through (1) types of food; (2) methods of cooking; (3) ingredients; and (4) eating decorum. From the regression analysis, this study found that Baba Nyonya cultural polarity explains significant variation in the formation of Malacca food identity. This study then elaborates on the importance of Baba Nyonya food in Malacca destination branding. 相似文献
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We consider kernel methods to construct nonparametric estimators of a regression function based on incomplete data. To tackle the presence of incomplete covariates, we employ Horvitz–Thompson-type inverse weighting techniques, where the weights are the selection probabilities. The unknown selection probabilities are themselves estimated using (1) kernel regression, when the functional form of these probabilities are completely unknown, and (2) the least-squares method, when the selection probabilities belong to a known class of candidate functions. To assess the overall performance of the proposed estimators, we establish exponential upper bounds on the \(L_p\) norms, \(1\le p<\infty \), of our estimators; these bounds immediately yield various strong convergence results. We also apply our results to deal with the important problem of statistical classification with partially observed covariates. 相似文献
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In this article, we consider inference about the correlation coefficients of several bivariate normal distributions. We first propose computational approach tests for testing the equality of the correlation coefficients. In fact, these approaches are parametric bootstrap tests, and simulation studies show that they perform very satisfactory, and the actual sizes of these tests are better than other existing approaches. We also present a computational approach test and a parametric bootstrap confidence interval for inference about the parameter of common correlation coefficient. At the end, all the approaches are illustrated using two real examples. 相似文献
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This article introduces a five-parameter lifetime model called the McDonald Gompertz (McG) distribution to extend the Gompertz, generalized Gompertz, generalized exponential, beta Gompertz, and Kumaraswamy Gompertz distributions among several other models. The hazard function of new distribution can be increasing, decreasing, upside-down bathtub, and bathtub shaped. We obtain several properties of the McG distribution including moments, entropies, quantile, and generating functions. We provide the density function of the order statistics and their moments. The parameter estimation is based on the usual maximum likelihood approach. We also provide the observed information matrix and discuss inferences issues. The flexibility and usefulness of the new distribution are illustrated by means of application to two real datasets. 相似文献
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Thirunaukarasu Subramaniam Nanthakumar Loganathan Erez Yerushalmi Evelyn Shyamala Devadason Mazlan Majid 《Social indicators research》2018,136(1):397-415
Infant mortality in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has been declining, yet disparities remain between the nations. This paper therefore explores the determinants of infant mortality in the older ASEAN-4 economies, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Error Correction Model framework. The key findings of the study are: First, there is evidence of long-run relationships among infant mortality, education, female fertility, income and access to healthcare. Second, the determinants of infant mortality vary between countries. Female fertility emerged as the main determinant of infant mortality in Malaysia, while access to healthcare matter for infant mortality in Indonesia, and to a lesser extent for the Philippines. The income effect is significant for reducing infant mortality in Malaysia, while female education is important for Indonesia and Thailand. Third, the speed of adjustment of infant mortality rate is comparatively low in ASEAN-4. 相似文献
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Kimberly M. Thompson Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens Mark A. Pallansch Olen M. Kew Roland W. Sutter R. Bruce Aylward Margaret Watkins Howard Gary James P. Alexander Linda Venczel Denise Johnson Victor M. Cáceres Nalinee Sangrujee Hamid Jafari Stephen L. Cochi 《Risk analysis》2006,26(6):1571-1580
The success of the Global Polio Eradication Initiative promises to bring large benefits, including sustained improvements in quality of life (i.e., cases of paralytic disease and deaths avoided) and costs saved from cessation of vaccination. Obtaining and maintaining these benefits requires that policymakers manage the transition from the current massive use of oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) to a world without OPV and free of the risks of potential future reintroductions of live polioviruses. This article describes the analytical journey that began in 2001 with a retrospective case study on polio risk management and led to development of dynamic integrated risk, economic, and decision analysis tools to inform global policies for managing the risks of polio. This analytical journey has provided several key insights and lessons learned that will be useful to future analysts involved in similar complex decision-making processes. 相似文献
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Social Indicators Research - The article Patronage and Public Goods Provisioning in an Unequal Land, written by Hadia Majid and Rashid Memon, was originally published electronically on the... 相似文献
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In this paper, we propose a sampling policy considering Bayesian risks. Various definitions of producer's risk and consumer's risk have been made. Bayesian risks for both producer and consumer are proven to give better information to decision-makers than classical definitions of the risks. So considering the Bayesian risk constraints, we seek to find optimal acceptance sampling policy by minimizing total cost, including the cost of rejecting the batch, the cost of inspection, and the cost of defective items detected during the operation. Proper distributions to construct the objective function of the model are specified. In order to demonstrate the application of the proposed model, we illustrate a numerical example. Furthermore, the results of the sensitivity analysis show that lot size, the cost of inspection, and the cost of one defective item are key factors in sampling policies. The acceptable quality level, the lot tolerance proportion defective, and Bayesian risks also affect the sampling policy, but variations of acceptable quality level and producer Bayesian risks, for values more than a specified value, cause no changes in sampling policy. 相似文献