Statistical Analysis of Marginal Count Failure Data

Manufacturers want to assess the quality andreliability of their products. Specifically, they want to knowthe exact number of failures from the sales transacted duringa particular month. Information available today is sometimesincomplete as many companies analyze their failure data simplycomparing sales for a total month from a particular departmentwith the total number of claims registered for that given month.This information—called marginal count data—is, thus,incomplete as it does not give the exact number of failures ofthe specific products that were sold in a particular month. Inthis paper we discuss nonparametric estimation of the mean numbersof failures for repairable products and the failure probabilitiesfor nonrepairable products. We present a nonhomogeneous Poissonprocess model for repairable products and a multinomial modeland its Poisson approximation for nonrepairable products. A numericalexample is given and a simulation is carried out to evaluatethe proposed methods of estimating failure probabilities undera number of possible situations.     

Two-Step Residual-Based Estimation of Error Variances for Generalized Least Squares in Split-Plot Experiments

In split-plot experiments, estimation of unknown parameters by generalized least squares (GLS), as opposed to ordinary least squares (OLS), is required, owing to the existence of whole- and subplot errors. However, estimating the error variances is often necessary for GLS. Restricted maximum likelihood (REML) is an established method for estimating the error variances, and its benefits have been highlighted in many previous studies. This article proposes a new two-step residual-based approach for estimating error variances. Results of numerical simulations indicate that the proposed method performs sufficiently well to be considered as a suitable alternative to REML.     

论法的效力——以拉德布鲁赫的哲学效力论为中心

个人的良心,在许多情况下,与牺牲自己对法的确信相比,更不容易违反实在法,但也可能有良心拒绝服从的“邪恶的法”。——拉德布鲁赫一、问题的所在在拉德布鲁赫法哲学的方法论中,急待解决的重大问题之一是“法的效力”(Rechtsgeltung)问题。这一问题位于其主要著作《法哲学》的第十章。拉德布鲁赫在这一问题中尝试了“规范的”法理念的现实化,即认为法的理想与现实、约束性与实效性,在同时有效这一点上,才能够相互结合。因此,拉德布鲁赫把按照耶利内克(G.Jellinek,1851-1911)的公式所提示的对“法的效力”的疑问,作为“事实上的规范性”加…     

Challenges of implementing restorative justice for intimate partner violence: An Islamic perspective

ABSTRACT

Intimate partner violence (IPV) is currently recognized as a critical public health concern and a human rights issue. Not surprisingly, Muslims – a religiously and socio-culturally diverse faith-based populace – are not an exception. To address this complex area of criminal justice and social policy, some scholars advocate implementing restorative justice (RJ) approaches. While RJ approaches have been traditionally used in Islamic cultures for conflict resolutions, to date, few studies have investigated how RJ operates in dealing with IPV in Muslim countries and communities. This article explores how RJ approaches towards IPV operate in some Muslim countries/communities, and offers insights into developing culturally and religiously appropriate ways of implementing RJ in IPV situations among Muslims. Given the prevalence of IPV among Muslims, the question is particularly important and timely. Taking exclusively limited examples of RJ approaches that have been used to mediate IPV cases in Muslim countries and communities, this paper found one significant challenge in the RJ approaches among Muslims: community acceptance of IPV. To reduce IPV in Muslim society, it is necessary to develop treatment models and techniques that meet cultural and religious needs. This paper found that since RJ is not alien to Islamic teachings, RJ approaches can be implemented effectively in dealing with IPV among Muslims by ensuring justice and equity of the abused woman. The findings of this paper will assist policymakers, practitioners, and service providers in providing religiously and culturally appropriate care when addressing IPV issues among Muslims.     

A general long-term aging model with different underlying activation mechanisms: Modeling,Bayesian estimation,and case influence diagnostics

In this paper we propose a general cure rate aging model. Our approach enables different underlying activation mechanisms which lead to the event of interest. The number of competing causes of the event of interest is assumed to follow a logarithmic distribution. The model is parameterized in terms of the cured fraction which is then linked to covariates. We explore the use of Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to develop a Bayesian analysis for the proposed model. Moreover, some discussions on the model selection to compare the fitted models are given, as well as case deletion influence diagnostics are developed for the joint posterior distribution based on the ψ-divergence, which has several divergence measures as particular cases, such as the Kullback–Leibler (K-L), J-distance, L₁ norm, and χ²-square divergence measures. Simulation studies are performed and experimental results are illustrated based on a real malignant melanoma data.     

UNDERSTANDING THE COSTS OF CONSUMER DURABLE ADJUSTMENTS

This article examines whether adjustment frictions help account for the patterns of household consumption expenditures observed in the Consumer Expenditure Survey, namely, that the variance of log durable expenditure is four times larger than that of log nondurable expenditure for annual data and this gap substantially widens for quarterly data. Estimating a structural model of household consumption with nondurable and durable goods with the simulated method of moments, I find that the fixed costs associated with durable adjustments are important in matching the cross‐sectional moments. Using the estimated model, I also examine the response of nondurable and durable expenditures to income shocks. (JEL D12, D91, E21)     

A new long-term survival model with dispersion induced by discrete frailty

Lifetime Data Analysis - Frailty models are generally used to model heterogeneity between the individuals. The distribution of the frailty variable is often assumed to be continuous. However, there...     

How U.S. and Japanese CEO's spend their time

Managing Directors (CEOs) in a number of large U.S. and Japanese corporations were asked to write a detailed diary of a typical working day, and they were asked what kind of information was useful for certain kinds of decisions. Some of the results of the survey are described in this article. It was found that the average age of the CEOs in the two countries was about the same—60 years old, but CEOs in the United States stayed longer in the position than Japanese CEOs because they were promoted at a younger age. CEOs in the United States worked a longer day than the Japanese. American chief executives spent about 3 hours longer in meetings than their Japanese counterparts. In Japanese corporations the information is distributed and the negotiating is done beforehand, so meetings tend to be shorter. In America contacts with businessmen outside the company were important sources of information, for strategic decisions in particular.     

Effects of Risk Representation and Scope on Willingness to Pay for Reduced Risks: Evidence from Tokyo Bay, Japan

When applying the contingent valuation method (CVM) in risk reduction studies, some studies report that willingness to pay (WTP) is insensitive to the magnitude of risk reduction while other studies do not. On the other hand, social-psychological research has shown that the affect heuristic biases judgments on probability, relative frequency, and risk. This article examines both magnitude (or scope) effect and affect heuristic (or representation) effect on WTP for risk reduction measures against tsunamis by introducing two experimental (i.e., absolute and relative) systems with four different representations to evaluate public behaviors in two different scenarios of risk reduction. Two common denominators (100 and 10,000) are introduced into absolute risk reduction representation (i.e., "of every 100 persons, from present 2 deaths to 1") to form different formats (i.e., "of every 10,000 persons from 200 to 100," and "of every 100,000 persons from 2,000 deaths to 1,000"). There is little evidence that WTP estimates are sufficiently sensitive to the magnitude of risk reduction, but relative risk reduction representations may be better than the absolute one given in CVM mail surveys when the risk is small. There is a statistically insignificant effect of risk reduction representations on respondent frequency, but mixed effects on the monetary values of WTP at the level of 0.05. The representation effect of absolute risk reduction on the WTP value varies with the common denominator. The larger the common denominator, the less the WTP to reduce the risk of tsunamis, and the significance probability is improved to less than the level of 0.05 when the common denominator becomes large enough. The findings suggest that improved methods are required for estimating the rates of tradeoff between fatality risk and other goods among consumers.