A statistical procedure for representing state fragility and transition paths

State fragility is a concept that entered the political discourse in the last decades producing remarkable implications for aid allocation and international policies. The operationalization of this concept has generated a number of composite indices to produce rankings of fragile states. However, the temporal dimension of the driving forces leading to fragility has been rather neglected. This article discusses a statistical procedure that helps to represent the global fragility of a country and the path that a country has followed or will follow in the future when possibly entering into (or escaping from) a fragility condition. Specifically, multiple factor analysis is applied to depict vulnerable and weak countries, and to identify the fundamental forces that determine their overall fragility. Moreover, the trajectories of countries along the years are estimated using partial factor scores. Finally, the path of each country is predicted by means of parsimonious regression models, based on a reduced set of explanatory variables, and according to scenarios elaborated from available international outlooks.     

College students’ knowledge about Sickle Cell Disease

ABSTRACT

Sickle Cell Disease (SCD) is a serious health problem affecting millions around the world. Key to prevention is knowledge about the disease and the reproductive implications. This study explored college students’ knowledge about SCD. Participants included 416 college students at a North Texas campus between October and December 2014. A cross-sectional survey design using an 18-question survey was used. Although most participants had heard of SCD, 21% had never heard of the disease. Furthermore, participants lacked knowledge regarding the differences between the disease and carrier status, prevalence, reproductive implications, prevention, and testing. Findings showed that couples had more knowledge about SCD compared to singles and there were no significant differences between those with children and those without indicating a need for education before they start dating. Most participants had not undergone SCD carrier screening and had no interest in screening. The Universal Prevention approach would be a suitable approach and should be utilized in improving knowledge about SCD.     

Multi-step forecasts from threshold ARMA models using asymmetric loss functions

The forecasts generation from nonlinear time series models is investigated under general loss functions. After presenting the main results and some relevant features of these functions, the Linex loss has been used to generate multi-step forecasts from threshold autoregressive moving average models showing their main properties and some results connected to a proper transformation of the forecast errors. A simulation exercise highlights interesting properties of the proposed predictors, both in terms of their bias and their distribution, further clarifying how the Linex predictor can be helpful in empirical applications.     

Multilevel analysis exploring the links between stress,depression, and sleep problems among two-year college students

Objective: This study explored the association of stress and depression with a multidimensional sleep problems construct in a sample of 2-year college students. Participants: The sample consisted of 440 students enrolled in 2-year study from Fall 2011 to Fall 2013. Methods: Participants in an obesity prevention study completed surveys assessing sleep, stress, and depression at baseline, 4, 12, and 24 months. Multilevel models predicting sleep problems were conducted to distinguish episodic from chronic reports of stress and depression. Results: Participants were primarily women (68%), white (73%), young adults (M age = 22.8), with an average of 8.4 hours of sleep per night. Neither stress nor depression was predictive of sleep quantity; however, they were predictive of sleep quality. Conclusions: Results show that sleep quality rather than sleep quantity may be the greater health concern for young adults, suggesting that intervention programs targeting depression, stress management, and healthy sleep patterns are warranted.     

Social Support,Industrial Parks and FDI Location Choice Across Hungarian Counties

This study analyses the determinants of foreign direct investments in Hungarian counties in the period 2001–2011. Unlike previous studies, the role of local public policies was also tested. To this end, local government social welfare expenditures and special economic regulations are considered in the econometric model. The results highlight the importance of local government interventions in creating a favourable environment to attract FDI to Hungarian counties. Furthermore, market size, labour skills and agglomeration economies significantly influence FDI location choices.     

Role of Various Fault Attributions and Other Factors in Children's Anticipated Response to Hypothetical Peers With Undesirable Characteristics

Two studies examined the role of various fault attributions and other factors in children's anticipated response to hypothetical peers described as having an undesirable characteristic. The children were found to distinguish among various fault attributions (i.e., general, onset, and perpetuation; study 1), and they tended to agree more strongly that the peers were responsible for the perpetuation than the onset of these characteristics (studies 1 and 2). In study 1, perceiving an aggressive or overweight peer as similar to a friend and believing that the overweight peer will overcome this undesirable characteristic were found to be associated with a relatively favorable response to these peers. The more strongly the children agreed that (1) an aggressive peer is generally at fault for his/her undesirable characteristic (study 1) and (2) peers who are aggressive, overweight, shy, or a poor student are at fault for the onset of their undesirable characteristics (study 2), the less favorably they anticipated responding to these peers. Unexpectedly, attributing responsibility to forces ‘outside the peer's control’ (i.e., parents and biology) for his/her undesirable characteristic in study 2 was not found to be associated with a relatively favorable response to any peer with an undesirable characteristic.     

Supporting the Labor Force Participation of Older Adults: An International Survey of Policy Options

The unprecedented aging of the world's population challenges many institutions, including labor markets and public pension programs. This study was conducted to survey expert opinions regarding conditions and policies that affect employment of older adults. Eighty-nine respondents from 26 nations responded to an Internet survey regarding their own experiences with the aging labor force; factors that encouraged or discouraged labor force participation of older adults; and government responses to these issues. Respondents identified barriers to employment of older adults and described their governments' responses. Findings illuminate a range of current policy options and suggest possible opportunities for innovation.