Partnership and Parenthood in Post‐transitional Societies: Will Specters Be Exorcised?

Abstract: The purpose of this article is to reconsider partnership and parenthood in post-transitional societies from the viewpoint of sociology. As is well known, after the end of the Baby Boom, albeit with variations in the tempo and the level, a considerable decline in fertility has occurred in industrialized countries. Furthermore, this decline has occurred in tandem with the transformation of partnership such as an increase in the number of cohabited couples. The causes and effects of this decline in fertility have hitherto been studied by social scientists such as economists and demographers. Although the family has been one of the main research interests for sociologists for a long while, the changes in partnership and fertility behavior in developed countries have not been sufficiently argued from the perspective of sociological theory on family. In this article, we will initially compare and contrast two changes in fertility patterns: the first of these is the fertility decline that occurred around the latter half of the nineteenth century; the second is the change that has been observed in industrialized countries since the second half of the 1960s. We will then discuss the difference between economic and ideational approaches in the explanation of partnership and fertility changes. Finally, we will examine the convergence and the divergence theories on family change. This article will conclude with an emphasis on the importance of the middle-range theories.     

A cohort analysis of female labor participation rates in the U.S. and Japan

Aggregate data of female labor participation rates in U.S. and Japan, classified by period and by age, are decomposed into age, period, and cohort effects using innovative Bayesian cohort models that were developed to overcome the identification problem in cohort analysis. The main findings are that in both countries, age effects are the largest and period effects are the smallest; in both countries, age effects are roughly consistent with life-cycle movements expected by labor economics, but the negative effects of marriage and/or childbearing on women?’s labor supply in Japan are much larger than those observed in the U.S.; and in both countries, upward movements of cohort effects during 1930s–1960s were found. However, cohort effects are larger for the U.S. than for Japan. All the cohort results are roughly consistent with the marriage squeeze hypothesis and the Easterlin hypothesis.     

On Asymptotic Deficiency of Estimators

The notion of deficiency was introduced by Hodges and Lehmann. It is known that best asymptotically normal (BAN) estimators are second order asymptotically efficient in the class A₂ of all second order asymptotically median unbiased estimators. In this paper it is shown that the asymptotic deficiency of any two estimators in the restricted class D of the third order asymptotically median unbiased BAN estimators is given by the difference between the coefficients of order n^-1 of the variances of the estimators.     

Life tables for worker honeybees

Summary Life tables for worker honeybees covering all life span, and those for adults, were prepared for three seasonal cohorts,June bees, July bees andwintering bees. Survivorship curves forJune andJuly bees show a convex type being exceptional for insects, with relatively high mortality at egg and feeding larval stages and at later adult stage after most bees became potential foragers. Adult longevity greatly lengthens inWinteriing bees and survivorship curve drops approximately with the same rate. A remarkable similarity of survivorship curves for men and honeybees was demonstrated, apparently due to highly developed social care in both. Some comments were given on mortality factors. The importance of life tables for population researches was shown by applying our result to the population growth curve made byBodenheimer, based upon the data byNolan. At the asymptote of the uncorrected curve, the ratio of total population estimated by uncorrected curve to that by corrected curve reaches about 3∶2. Contribution No. 821 from the Zoological Institute, Faculty of Science, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan. Contributions from JIBP-PT No. 45. This study was in part supportod by a grant in aid from the Ministry of Education for the special project research, “Studies on the dynamic status of biosphere.” Population and bioeconomic studies on the honeybee colonies. II. We express our sincere thanks to Dr. YosiakiIt?, National Institute of Agricultural Sciences, Tokyo, for his kind stimulation and advices to the present work.     

A NOTE ON PREDICTION SUFFICIENCY (ADEQUACY) AND SUFFICIENCY

Let(X, A) be a measurable space and P a family of probability measures on A. Let B and C be sub -algebras of A and B₀ a sub -algebra of B. It is shown that if B₀ is prediction sufficient (adequate) for B with respect to C and P, and Y is sufficient for B₀^vC with respect to P then Y is sufficient for B^vC with respect to P; that if P is homogeneous and (B₀; B, C) is Markov for P, and B₀^vC is sufficient for B^vc with respect to P, then B₀ is sufficient for B with respect to P; and by example that the Markov property is necessary for the latter proposition to hold.     

Cointegration Detection Using Dynamic Factor Models

A method of information-criterion-based cointegration detection using dynamic factor models is proposed. The results of the data-based and non data-based Monte Carlo simulations suggest that this method is as effective as conventional hypothesis-testing methods. In the proposed method, an observed multivariate time series is described in terms of common stochastic trends plus stationary autoregressive cycles. Then the best model is selected from among alternative models obtained by changing the number of common stochastic trends, on the basis of information criteria. Consequently, the cointegration rank is determined on the basis of the selected model. Two advantages of the proposed method are also discussed.     

Overwintering ecology of two social halictine bees,Lasioglossum duplex andL. problematicum

Summary Overwintering of two social halictine bees,Lasioglossum duplex (Dalla Torre) andL. problematicum (Blüthgen), was studied. InL. duplex many females stay near the old nests, each female preparing a hibernaculum separated from the natal nest. InL. problematicum most females overwinter communally within the natal nest. This difference in overwintering habits relates to the social structure in the next spring.L. duplex is nearly always solitary in spring although later becoming eusocial, whereas many nests ofL. problematicum are polygynous, beginning in early spring.L. duplex overwinters much deeper ( ) in the soil than doesL. problematicum ( ), but both species are safe from drops in soil temperature, which is above 0°C even in midwinter, and the bees' supercooling points are lower than −6°C. This cold resistance and the storage of sufficient food in the crop are reflected in the winter survival, which is much higher (79%) than the rate of successful nests in the spring active phase (25%). Bionomics of the eusocial halictine beeLasioglossum duplex VII. Contribution No. 2654 from the Inst. Low Temp. Sci.     

Simulated real-time detection of multiple structural changes: Evidence from Japanese economic growth

An efficient treatment of practical issues on detecting multiple structural changes is presented. The efficacy of this method is examined by comparing the conventional hypothesis-testing method via comprehensive simulations and empirical applications. The method recommended is a model-selection using the Bayesian information criterion and allowing for heteroscedasticity. Empirical results show that the first structural change of Japanese economic growth occurred in 1974Q2, which was detected in 1979Q4, and that the second structural change occurred in 1992Q2, which was detected in 1998Q1. Two advantages of the model-selection method compared to the hypothesis-testing method are also discussed.     

A dynamic game analysis of Internet services with network externalities

Theory and Decision - Internet services, such as review sites, FAQ sites, online auction sites, online flea markets, and social networking services, are essential to our daily lives. Each Internet...