Behavioral responses of rural and urban greater white-toothed shrews (Crocidura russula) to sound disturbance

Urban Ecosystems - The development of urban areas imposes challenges that wildlife must adapt to in order to persist in these new habitats. One of the greatest changes brought by urbanization has...     

Flipping and ex post aggregation

We show that Bayesian ex post aggregation is unstable with respect to refinements. Suppose a group of Bayesians use ex post aggregation. Since it is a joint problem, each agent's problem is captured by the same model, but probabilities and utilities may vary. If they analyze the same situation in more detail, their refined analysis should preserve their preferences among acts. However, ex post aggregation could bring about a preference reversal on the group level. Ex post aggregation thus depends on how much information is used and may keep oscillating (“flipping”) as one keeps adding more information. Received: 16 April 2002/Accepted: 27 May 2002     

Statistik für bivariate gemischte Poisson–Prozesse am Beispiel der Kraftfahrthaftpflichtversicherung

Zusammenfassung: In diesem Artikel wird der Weg von einem univariaten gemischten Poisson–Prozess, der in vielen Bereichen zum Z?hlen von Ereignissen benutzt wird, zu einem bivariaten gemischten Poisson–Prozess aufgezeigt. Dazu werden einige Eigenschaften des bivariaten Prozesses angegeben. Im zweiten Teil der Arbeit wird gezeigt, wie mit Hilfe dieses Prozesses der übergang von einem herk?mmlichen Bonus–Malus–System in der Kraftfahrthaftpflichtversicherung zu einem Bonus–Malus–System mit Berücksichtigung der Schadenart beschritten werden kann. Dazu wird zuerst eine Modellprüfung der gegebenen Daten vorgenommen und sodann werden für verschiedene mischende Verteilungen die Verteilungsparameter gesch?tzt und Nettopr?mien angegeben sowie die Prognosegenauigkeit getestet.

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Summary: In this paper we show that the model of the bivariate mixed Poisson process arises in a natural way from the univariate mixed Poisson process, which is used in several areas for counting certain events. Furthermore we state some properties of the bivariate process. In the second part of the paper we illustrate how by means of the bivariate mixed Poisson process a bonus–malus system handling different types of accidents can be derived from the classical bonus–malus system in third–party liability insurance. To this end we first check the model on the given data and then estimate distribution parameters and compute net premiums for different mixing distributions as well as test the prediction probabilities.

* Vortrag am Dresdner Forum zur Versicherungsmathematik: Tarifierung in Erst- und Rückversicherung am 25. Juni 2004. Für die Unterstützung zu dieser Arbeit m?chte der Autor Lothar Partzsch, Klaus D. Schmidt (beide Dresden) und Friedemann Spies (München) recht herzlich danken.     

Contrasting strategies for tree species to cope with heat and dry conditions at urban sites

Street trees planted at tree pits with impermeable pavements are exposed to a high level of both, atmospheric and edaphic stress. For many species tree physiology, optimal growth, and consequently long-term vitality may be hampered under these harsh conditions. Therefore, maintaining the vitality and promoting the ecosystem services provided by urban trees, for example aesthetic values and microclimatic benefits, it is important to establish trees with a high tolerance to stressful urban environments. Measurements of leaf gas exchange, leaf water potential, leaf surface temperature and chlorophyll-fluorescence were used for identification of specific response of Corylus corluna L., Ginkgo biloba L., Liriodendron tulipifera L., and Tilia cordata Mill. ‘Greenspire’. The summer months in 2013 with a period of heat and drought over eight weeks only interrupted by two rainy days were appropriate to access tree’s strategies to cope with low water availability. During the measurement period, the influence of high temperatures, high values of vapor pressure deficit (VPD) and low soil water availability on stomatal conductance, water-use efficiency (WUE) and leaf water potential (Ψmin, Ψmax ) was highest for Liriodendron followed by Ginkgo. These species showed high reductions in WUE in case of higher air temperatures and high values of VPD. Results indicate an avoidance strategy under increasing heat and VPD. In contrast, Corylus and Tilia followed a tolerance strategy indicated by decreasing values of Ψmin and lower reductions of WUE. In conclusion, wide species-specific variation in response to high temperatures and high VPD indicates that substantial potential exists in the selection for dry and hot urban places.     

Consolidated findings from 6 years research on the age-differentiated design of human-computer interaction

The fast aging of many western and eastern societies and their increasing reliance on information technology create a compelling need to reconsider older users' interactions with computers. This paper summarizes the results of 6 years of research on the age-differentiated design of human-computer interaction. The well-known model of human information processing served as the theoretical framework. The model components 'sensory processing', 'perception', 'working memory', 'decision and response selection' and 'response execution' were analyzed exemplarily in task settings on project management. In seven empirical studies with a total number of 405 participants between 20 and 77 years the human-computer interaction was analyzed regarding effectiveness, efficiency and user satisfaction. For most but not all studies the results reveal that age-induced differences in human-computer interaction can best be compensated by an ergonomic 'design for all'. In some cases however an age-specific approach is favorable.     

Opportunities of the minimum Anderson–Darling estimator as a variant of the maximum likelihood method

We reveal that the minimum Anderson–Darling (MAD) estimator is a variant of the maximum likelihood method. Furthermore, it is shown that the MAD estimator offers excellent opportunities for parameter estimation if there is no explicit formulation for the distribution model. The computation time for the MAD estimator with approximated cumulative distribution function is much shorter than that of the classical maximum likelihood method with approximated probability density function. Additionally, we research the performance of the MAD estimator for the generalized Pareto distribution and demonstrate a further advantage of the MAD estimator with an issue of seismic hazard analysis.     

Criticism of the predictive distribution

The predictive distribution is a mixture of the original distribution model and is used for predicting a future observation. Therein, the mixing distribution is the posterior distribution of the distribution parameters in the Bayesian inference. The mixture can also be computed for the frequentist inference because the Bayesian posterior distribution has the same meaning as a frequentist confidence interval. I present arguments against the concept of predictive distribution. Examples illustrate these. The most important argument is that the predictive distribution can depend on the parameterization. An improvement of the theory of the predictive distribution is recommended.