A simulation study on the influence of ties on uniform scores test for circular data

Uniform scores test is a rank-based method that tests the homogeneity of k-populations in circular data problems. The influence of ties on the uniform scores test has been emphasized by several authors in several articles and books. Moreover, it is suggested that the uniform scores test should be used with caution if ties are present in the data. This paper investigates the influence of ties on the uniform scores test by computing the power of the test using average, randomization, permutation, minimum, and maximum methods to break ties. Monte Carlo simulation is performed to compute the power of the test under several scenarios such as having 5% or 10% of ties and tie group structures in the data. The simulation study shows no significant difference among the methods under the existence of ties but the test loses its power when there are many ties or complicated group structures. Thus, randomization or average methods are equally powerful to break ties when applying uniform scores test. Also, it can be concluded that k-sample uniform scores test can be used safely without sacrificing the power if there are only less than 5% of ties or at most two groups of a few ties.     

A test statistic to choose between Liu-type and least-squares estimator based on mean square error criteria

In this study, the necessary and sufficient conditions for the Liu-type (LT) biased estimator are determined. A test for choosing between the LT estimator and least-squares estimator is obtained by using these necessary and sufficient conditions. Also, a simulation study is carried out to compare this estimator against the ridge estimator. Furthermore, a numerical example is given for defined test statistic.     

How Does Education Affect Political Trust?: An Analysis of Moderating Factors

This article aims to understand the correlates of political trust by delving into the multiple interactive effects of education in democratic states throughout the world. It asks whether education raises political trust by increasing the stakes of the citizens in the system and whether education diminishes trust as a result of being abler to evaluate the existence of corruption in a given country. It also taps into how post-materialism as an individual-level factor affects this equation by activating critical judgments toward political institutions. The findings show that, indeed, the effect of education on political trust is very context-dependent. Political trust and education are positively correlated in more meritocratic countries and negatively correlated in the more corrupt ones. Post-material values, combined with educational attainment, tend to lower political trust to a certain extent yet this effect is surpassed by the presence or absence of meritocracy or political corruption. We also find that the effect of education on political trust becomes more pronounced as the level of education increases, with university graduates being the most susceptible to the effects of meritocracy and corruption on their trust levels.

     

A test statistic based on ranked set sampling for two normal means

In this study, we considered a hypothesis test for the difference of two population means using ranked set sampling. We proposed a test statistic for this hypothesis test with more than one cycle under normality. We also investigate the performance of this test statistic, when the assumptions hold and are violated. For this reason, we investigate the type I error and power rates of tests under normality with equal and unequal variances, non-normality with equal and unequal variances. We also examine the performance of this test under imperfect ranking case. The simulation results show that derived test performs quite well.     

An Experimental Study of the Effectiveness of Three Debiasing Techniques*

Subjective probability distributions constitute an important part of the input to decision analysis and other decision aids. The long list of persistent biases associated with human judgments under uncertainy [16] suggests, however, that these biases can be translated into the elicited probabilities which, in turn, may be reflected in the output of the decision aids, potentially leading to biased decisions. This experiment studies the effectiveness of three debiasing techniques in elicitation of subjective probability distributions. It is hypothesized that the Socratic procedure [18] and the devil's advocate approach [6] [7] [31] [32] [33] [34] will increase subjective uncertainty and thus help assessors overcome a persistent bias called “overconfidence.” Mental encoding of the frequency of the observed instances into prespecified intervals, however, is expected to decrease subjective uncertainty and to help assessors better capture, mentally, the location and skewness of the observed distribution. The assessors' ratings of uncertainty confirm these hypotheses related to subjective uncertainty but three other measures based on the dispersion of the elicited subjective probability distributions do not. Possible explanations are discussed. An intriguing explanation is that debiasing may affect what some have called “second order” uncertainty. While uncertainty ratings may include this second component, the measures based on the elicited distributions relate only to “first order” uncertainty.