Departure from independence and stationarity in a handball match

This paper analyses direct and indirect forms of dependence in the probability of scoring in a handball match, taking into account the mutual influence of both playing teams. Non-identical distribution (i.d.) and non-stationarity, which are commonly observed in sport games, are studied through the specification of time-varying parameters.

The model accounts for the binary character of the dependent variable, and for unobserved heterogeneity. The parameter dynamics is specified by a first-order auto-regressive process.

Data from the Handball World Championships 2001–2005 show that the dynamics of handball violate both independence and i.d., in some cases having a non-stationary behaviour.