BayesProject: Fast computation of a projection direction for multivariate changepoint detection

Statistics and Computing - This article focuses on the challenging problem of efficiently detecting changes in mean within multivariate data sequences. Multivariate changepoints can be detected by...     

Randomized response techniques for complex survey designs

Singh et al. ([13]) pointed out that the Randomized response (RR) technique proposed by Moors ([9]) is not desirable because it fails to protect the confidentiality of the respondents and they provided two alternative strategies free from the above drawback but limited to SRSWOR sampling only. In this paper, generalization of one of the strategies is provided for complex survey designs, wider class of estimators and for quantitative characteristics. Relative efficiency of the modified strategy is tested through empirical investigations. An erratum to this article is available at .     

Modernisierungstheorie und Wandel der Weltgesellschaft

The modernization and industrialization of the developing countries, especially in Asia and Latin America in the last 30 years, are facts that seem to contradict to the basic assumptions of the ruling sociological theories of development. The rise of the developing countries is a main part of the process called “globalization”. The different parts of the world are getting closer to each other by trade, industrial investments, tourism, political influences and co-operations on different levels. Theories of dependence and similar approaches don’t fit these social developments and seem to have gotten a status of falsified, refused, neglected or simply forgotten theories. “Sociological Theory” is till this day not ready to answer the open questions and to fill the scientific gap. The article shows that the classical theory of modernization is capable to describe and explain the process of modernization not only in Europe but also in the developing countries. Modernization theory is the central and encompassing theory of development, no matter whether Europe in the last 200 years, the present-day developing countries or processes of globalization is the chosen and focused subject of research activities.     

Same same but different: managerial influences on organisational performance in foundations and associations

In the last few years the management orientation of nonprofit organisation (NPOs) has been gaining importance. Management is said to have made the organisation of NPOs more effective and efficient. However, the influence of the institutional settings is often neglected in nonprofit management literature. By using a quantitative empirical approach this study investigates the influence of the legal type of Swiss nonprofits on the relationship between management dimensions and organisational performance. The research findings reveal significant differences in the management of foundations and associations. In particular, foundations have a competitive advantage in terms of innovation and market orientation. Whereas associations profit from investing in governance issues.     

MEASURING THE INTERDEPENDENCE OF MULTINATIONAL FIRMS' FOREIGN INVESTMENTS

Earlier work found evidence for geographic linkages of aggregate foreign direct investment across countries and country‐pairs. From a theoretical point of view, such linkages at the macroeconomic level may root in between‐firm as well as within‐firm linkages and originate from information spillovers across or within firms in exploring unknown markets, and vertical linkages between production plants across different locations within the firm. We use data on the universe of German multinational enterprises (MNEs) to empirically explore how marginal investments at one foreign affiliate depend on investments at other affiliates within the same MNE. The empirical approach employs two channels or modes of cross‐affiliate interdependence: mere geography (capturing horizontal linkages through correlated learning and horizontal competition within the firm) and input–output relationships within or across industries (which capture vertical linkages). Adding to earlier findings at the aggregate level, we find evidence of a significant interdependence of investments within the firm. In the firm‐level data at hand, vertical linkages appear to be more important than horizontal ones. Investments at one location tend to stimulate investments at other locations of the same MNE, particularly if input linkages are strong. The opposite seems to be true for output linkages. Beyond vertical linkages, mere geographic proximity matters only to a minor extent. This suggests that evidence of linkages through geographic closeness at aggregate data levels accrue mainly to reasons of vertical linkages within networks of affiliates. (JEL C31, D22, F21, F23, F68, G31, H32)     

Consistent Probabilistic Social Choice

Two fundamental axioms in social choice theory are consistency with respect to a variable electorate and consistency with respect to components of similar alternatives. In the context of traditional non‐probabilistic social choice, these axioms are incompatible with each other. We show that in the context of probabilistic social choice, these axioms uniquely characterize a function proposed by Fishburn (1984). Fishburn's function returns so‐called maximal lotteries, that is, lotteries that correspond to optimal mixed strategies in the symmetric zero‐sum game induced by the pairwise majority margins. Maximal lotteries are guaranteed to exist due to von Neumann's Minimax Theorem, are almost always unique, and can be efficiently computed using linear programming.     

Implementing Monte Carlo tests with p-value buckets

Software packages usually report the results of statistical tests using p-values. Users often interpret these values by comparing them with standard thresholds, for example, 0.1, 1, and 5%, which is sometimes reinforced by a star rating (***, **, and *, respectively). We consider an arbitrary statistical test whose p-value p is not available explicitly, but can be approximated by Monte Carlo samples, for example, by bootstrap or permutation tests. The standard implementation of such tests usually draws a fixed number of samples to approximate p. However, the probability that the exact and the approximated p-value lie on different sides of a threshold (the resampling risk) can be high, particularly for p-values close to a threshold. We present a method to overcome this. We consider a finite set of user-specified intervals that cover [0, 1] and that can be overlapping. We call these p-value buckets. We present algorithms that, with arbitrarily high probability, return a p-value bucket containing p. We prove that for both a bounded resampling risk and a finite runtime, overlapping buckets need to be employed, and that our methods both bound the resampling risk and guarantee a finite runtime for such overlapping buckets. To interpret decisions with overlapping buckets, we propose an extension of the star rating system. We demonstrate that our methods are suitable for use in standard software, including for low p-value thresholds occurring in multiple testing settings, and that they can be computationally more efficient than standard implementations.     

历史学家面对战争

第一次世界大战前,对现代社会和文化发展的忧虑便普遍存在———这一点在德国表现得尤为明显。德国、法国、英国及美国的历史学家都在期望战后的世界不要完全不同于战前的秩序。战前的迹象表明,人们同时也在作一些缓和紧张局势的尝试,在历史学家中,这种情况就更为显著。德国学界的国际交往在继续,并且呈扩大的趋势。然而,随着战争的爆发,友谊变成了仇恨,不仅针对敌对国家,也针对它们的历史学家。战争双方都认为,这是一场两种文化间的战争。一战期间,两大阵营的历史学家立场和行为有着很大的相似性,即不论战前他们在政治问题上分歧多么大,一旦战争爆发,他们都几乎无条件地支持战争,尽管这些分歧只是被暂时搁置在一边,这种情形在德国尤为突出。然而,毫无疑问也有一些不同之处。在支持与反对战争的双方之间,分歧与一致同时存在。值得注意的是,在德国,战争对历史编纂学的影响很小,历史学家都不愿接受战争带来的新的现实。一战后,德国的历史学家很少再与其他国家,特别是法国和美国历史研究的新潮流发生联系;由于抵制变迁,德国历史学变得越来越和国际学术界无关。     

Religion,Religiosity, and the Attitudes Toward Homosexuality—A Multilevel Analysis of 79 Countries

Although attitudes toward homosexuality have become more liberal, particularly in industrialized Western countries, there is still a great deal of variance in terms of worldwide levels of homonegativity. Using data from the two most recent waves of the World Values Survey (1999–2004, 2005–2009), this article seeks to explain this variance by means of a multilevel analysis of 79 countries. We include characteristics on the individual level, as age or gender, as well as aggregate variables linked to specificities of the nation-states. In particular, we focus on the religious denomination of a person and her religiosity to explain her attitude toward homosexuality. We find clear differences in levels of homonegativity among the followers of the individual religions.