Utilizing Bayesian predictive power in clinical trial design

The Bayesian paradigm provides an ideal platform to update uncertainties and carry them over into the future in the presence of data. Bayesian predictive power (BPP) reflects our belief in the eventual success of a clinical trial to meet its goals. In this paper we derive mathematical expressions for the most common types of outcomes, to make the BPP accessible to practitioners, facilitate fast computations in adaptive trial design simulations that use interim futility monitoring, and propose an organized BPP-based phase II-to-phase III design framework.     

‘Diagnosis and Family Therapy: Traditional’ Psychiatry and the Concepts of Disease and Diagnosis

The process of diagnosis in medicine and psychiatry is described. An historical review of the concept of disease provides three models of disease: (1) as a lesion (2) as a host environment relation (3) as a statistical concept, each of which has implications for diagnosis. Three models of psychiatric diagnosis are outlined — (1) the categorical (2) the dimensional, and (3) the multi-axial. The limitations and deficiencies of each of these models are described, both in general terms and specifically in the light of family-systems thinking.     

The Saving for Every Child Program in Israel: an overview of a universal asset-building policy

ABSTRACT

In 2017, the Israeli government implemented a universal child development account programme – the Saving for Every Child Program (SECP) – which establishes a personal savings account for every Israeli child and provides monthly deposits until the child turns 18. The SECP has the potential to provide substantial assets when children reach adulthood, but the benefits depend on parents’ investment choices. The unique programme’s nature presents opportunities to learn from its implementation. This paper provides a comprehensive overview of the SECP, its legislative history, early findings from its implementation, and recommendations that may improve programme participation and outcomes across population groups.     

Narratives and the Therapist's Allegiance

Trainee therapists are attracted to particular treatment philosophies through the influence of complex factors which are embedded in the narratives of the origins and successes of a particular model of treatment. The relevance of these stories to the development of a professional identity is discussed with specific attention to family therapy.     

Structural sources of personnel problems in multinational corporations: Third-country nationals

The paper examines the extent to which multinational corporations (MNCs) whose staffing policies approach the genuine multinational model are free of the dysfunctions found by the authors in earlier studies of ethnocentric MNCs. The findings are based on comparative research in 51 MNCs, and intensive diagnostic studies of seven subsidiaries of MNCs operating and headquartered in four continents. The findings may be summed up as follows: (1) certain, but very few, morale problems have indeed been eliminated; (2) others are still present; (3) others are still present and their effect has intensified; and (4) new problems have appeared which are unique to the staffing policy approximating to the genuine multinational model. These findings shed new light on several of the assumptions underlying this model. The general conclusion is that each prevalent type of staffing policy has several sources of morale problems—some inherent in its uniqueness, and others shared by the alternative staffing policies—irrespective of the personal qualifications of the managers. Therefore, it is unrealistic to expect that a change toward the genuine multinational model would solve the basic morale problems prevalent in the dominant type of MNCs.     

The Longest Shadow A Clinical Commentary On Moshe Lang's Silence: Therapy with Holocaust Survivors and their Families

This commentary addresses one of the issues raised by Moshe Lang's Silence: Therapy with Holocaust Survivors and their Families, namely the paucity of a psychotherapy literature about holocaust survivors and their families. Possible reasons for this phenomenon are discussed, with an emphasis on the implications for family therapy.     

Using Electronic Medical Records in Admission Decisions: A Cost Effectiveness Analysis

In recent years, the healthcare sector has invested heavily in medical information systems to improve decision making while reducing medical costs and integrating medical data from multiple sources. However, the overall contribution of this technology to the medical field remains controversial, especially in high‐stress environments such as the emergency department. This article evaluates the differential effects of accessing an electronic medical record (EMR) system on the decision to admit, based on diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction (AMI), which is one of the main reasons people go to the emergency department. The admission decision with or without accessing the EMR system is modeled as a decision tree and a Markovian process. A cost‐effectiveness analysis compares the added value of information (retrieved from the EMR system) against the cost of providing this information. This model is then tested on a simulation of patients presenting symptoms of AMI. The results show that use of the EMR led to greater cost‐effectiveness in cases of suspected AMI. The findings of this study may assist physicians by demonstrating a probable contribution of EMR to improved medical outcomes and may inform policy makers in the healthcare sector regarding the advisability of investing in such systems in an emergency department.     

Imperfect competition,border protection and consumer boycott: The future of the dairy industry in Israel

Recent increases in prices of dairy products in Israel led to consumer unrest and boycotts against dairy producers during the summer of 2011. The Israeli dairy industry is highly distorted with production quotas and administered prices for raw milk, tariff rate quotas and an oligopoly in dairy processing. Since the issue of self-sufficiency and food security is at the top of Israel's national priorities, the future of the dairy industry is generating heated debate. Thus, we use a general equilibrium model to estimate the effects associated with particular alternative policies actually discussed to liberalize the Israeli dairy industry.     

Measuring Temporal Dimensions of the Intensity of Violent Political Conflict

Violent political conflict shows patterns of varied intensity and persistence. These patterns may induce changes in human behavior in various temporal dimensions. In order to study these effects, empirical research needs a suitable way to measure conflict intensity. This paper suggests and illustrates a method of aggregating raw data on violence incidence into complementary temporal categories, in order to enrich empirical insights. We construct short-, medium-, and long-term measures based on daily fatality counts in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict between 1997 and 2011. We show that these dimensions, although constructed from the same set of raw data, contain complementary information since they are only weakly correlated. As an example, we illustrate how several such categories can be useful in modeling the dynamics of food prices. This demonstrates that such aggregations provide complementary temporal perspectives. They therefore can potentially enrich the analysis of the effects of conflict on human behavior beyond commonly employed measurements of daily or yearly frequency.