Does Formal Education for Older Workers Increase Earnings? — Evidence Based on Rich Data and Long‐term Follow‐up

Governments in Europe, Canada and the USA have expressed an ambition to stimulate education of older. In this paper, we analyse if there are effects on annual earnings of formal education for participants aged 42–55 at the time of enrolment in 1994–95. The analysis explores longitudinal population register data stretching from 1982 to 2007. The method used is difference‐in‐differences propensity score matching based on a rich set of covariates, including indicators of health and labor market marginalization. Our findings underline the importance of long follow up periods and imply positive effects for women, especially so for women with children, and no significant average earnings effects for men. These results differ from earlier studies but are stable to several alternative assumptions regarding unobservable characteristics. Data further indicate that the gender gap in our estimates may stem from differences in underlying reasons for enrolment.     

A Parametric Estimation Procedure for Relapse Time Distributions

In a relapse clinical trial patients who have recovered from some recurrent disease (e.g.,ulcer or cancer) are examined at a number of predetermined times. A relapse can be detected either at one of these planned inspections or at a spontaneous visit initiated by the patient because of symptoms. In the first case the observations of the time to relapse, X, is interval-censored by two predetermined time-points. In the second case the upper endpoint of the interval is an observation of the time to symptoms,Y . To model the progression of the disease we use a partially observable Markov process. This approach results in a bivariate phase-type distribution for the joint distribution of (X,Y). It is a flexible model which contains several natural distributions for X, and allows the conditional distributions of the marginals to smoothly depend on each other. To estimate the distributions involved we develop an EM-algorithm. The estimation procedure is evaluated and compared with a non-parametric method in a couple of examples based on simulated data.     

The potential power of social policy programmes: income redistribution,economic resources and health

Lundberg O, Fritzell J, Åberg Yngwe M, Kölegård ML. The potential power of social policy programmes: income redistribution, economic resources and health Int J Soc Welfare 2010: ??: ??–??© 2010 The Author(s), Journal compilation © 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd and International Journal of Social Welfare. This Supplement includes a number of articles dealing with the role of social policy schemes for public health across the life course. As a key social determinant of health, poverty and its consequences have historically been at the forefront of the public health discussion. But also in rich countries today, economic resources are likely to be important for health and survival, both on an individual and an aggregate level. This introductory article serves as a background for the more specific analyses that follow. The focus is on why income and income inequality could have an effect on individual and population health. We discuss relationships between the individual and population levels and between income and health, and some of the possible mechanisms involved. We also present arguments for why welfare state institutions may matter.     

Health-related disabilities and matching of spouses: Analysis of Swedish population data

Recent research concerning the incidence of reported work-limiting disabilities in the married population indicates a degree of interdependence between spouses' disabilities. This pattern is consistent with several hypotheses. Spouses tend to share many lifestyle traits that might lead to common health outcomes. Alternatively, their joint reports might reflect a shared preference for income benefits or workplace accommodations available to disabled individuals. Another possibility is that disabled individuals tend to be matched in the process of marital formation. This paper investigates the latter hypothesis. Taking advantage of a unique data set from the Swedish population, we select a sample of recently married couples and trace them back in time to their single years. Our analysis indicates nonrandom matching on the basis of disability status. After controlling for observed traits such as age and education, we find a residual correlation between future spouses that is positive and strongly significant. The magnitude of the correlation is within the range of residual correlations obtained from other studies that address marital matching in the contexts of education and earnings. The authors wish to thank anonymous referees and the editors of this journal for helpful comments and prompt reviews. Responsible editor: Christian Dustmann.     

On Exact Simulation of Markov Random Fields Using Coupling from the Past

A general framework for exact simulation of Markov random fields using the Propp–Wilson coupling from the past approach is proposed. Our emphasis is on situations lacking the monotonicity properties that have been exploited in previous studies. A critical aspect is the convergence time of the algorithm; this we study both theoretically and experimentically. Our main theoretical result in this direction says, roughly, that if interactions are sufficiently weak, then the expected running time of a carefully designed implementation is O ( N log N ), where N is the number of interacting components of the system. Computer experiments are carried out for random q -colourings and for the Widom–Rowlinson lattice gas model.     

Planning for a rapidly changing environment in SAS

The author describes how Scandinavian Airlines achieved a turnaround from unprofitability and loss of market share. The creation and development of a corporate culture revitalized personnel and initiated a new management role, business-oriented rather than administrative. Punctuality became a specific goal and won for SAS the reputation of being Europe's most punctual airline. The change process is likely to continue into the future and the new internal management systems will change to meet these needs.     

Internal Migration in Sweden: The Effects of Mobility Grants and Regional Labour Market Conditions

The main purpose of this study is to investigate whether variations in mobility grants have affected internal migration in Sweden. The paper also contains an exploration of how changing labour market conditions influence the migratory behaviour of the unemployed in comparison with other individuals. The results indicate that total migration flows respond to changes in labour market conditions in accordance with predictions from economic theory. This finding seems mainly to stem from the migratory behaviour of the unemployed. Furthermore, non-matching migration subsidies at the levels employed are not found to be migration enhancing.     

Perspectives on determinants of social welfare: introduction

In this commentary we discuss and elaborate on a number of topics that have been raised in the articles in this issue. The first topic treated is causality. All scientists are aware of the difficulties of making causal inferences in non‐experimental settings, and in many cases arguments are forwarded that support the causal interpretation of the reported relationships. Questions of bi‐directional causality, nonlinear relationships and the importance of omitted variables are discussed, as is the supporting evidence that in some cases comes from experimental studies. The second topic is the level of analysis employed in the empirical analyses and the difficulty of interpreting findings at a different level of aggregation than the level applied in these analyses. In this context, the importance of applying a person‐orientation is pointed out to ensure that the findings are interpretable at the level of the single individual. Even in individual‐level analyses, this can be problematic if one relies on group statistics produced within a variable‐oriented framework. The third topic concerns how to handle interactions and nonlinear relationships. The fourth topic concerns the importance of improving measurements so that a good correspondence is achieved between them and the theoretical conceptualisations. The fifth and last topic is concerned with the argument that different ways of investigating the generalisability of the results to different populations should be tried.