Improved Prediction Intervals and Distribution Functions

Abstract.  The plug-in solution is usually not entirely adequate for computing prediction intervals, as their coverage probability may differ substantially from the nominal value. Prediction intervals with improved coverage probability can be defined by adjusting the plug-in ones, using rather complicated asymptotic procedures or suitable simulation techniques. Other approaches are based on the concept of predictive likelihood for a future random variable. The contribution of this paper is the definition of a relatively simple predictive distribution function giving improved prediction intervals. This distribution function is specified as a first-order unbiased modification of the plug-in predictive distribution function based on the constrained maximum likelihood estimator. Applications of the results to the Gaussian and the generalized extreme-value distributions are presented.     

The framing of return from above and below in Ecuadorian migration: a project,a myth,or a political device?

Although return migration is a significant topic in current policy, the competing interests of sending and destination countries in promoting it and the prospects of making return strategies ‘from above’ a viable and desirable option for migrants are relatively neglected topics. In this article, I explore the distinct agendas, meanings and expectations underlying the prospects of return migration from Ecuador to Italy. I approach this recent migration flow through ethnography and an institutional analysis of the policy strategies and discourses emerging in the source country. The Ecuadorian government has recently developed a Plan Retorno aimed at facilitating emigrants’ return and economic reintegration. The narratives of Ecuadorian migrants generally reveal a deep‐rooted expectation to return home. While initially hoping to return home ‘soon’, however, migrants systematically tend to postpone their homecoming. When it does take place in the short term, it is likely to be through migration ‘failure’ rather than an actual accomplishment of their earlier objectives. Given the distinct interests and expectations driving them, it is possible to assess the relationship between the two approaches to return. I conclude that return migration, irrespective of its actual accomplishment, is relevant to a better understanding of emigrant policies and of immigrant life trajectories overseas.     

From Tragedy to Farce: On Medicine, the State and the Market

Abstract  This speculative essay is prompted by the formal characteristics of contemporary debates over the progress of medicine, namely their oscillation between claims about ever greater possibilities and dire warnings about threats to fundamental human values, and by a troublesome, yet resonant, phase from Nikolas Rose's reflections on contemporary governmental mechanisms. It seeks to push the terms medicine, state and market to their conceptual limit, and raise question thereby about what might be the most appropriate comportment towards these debates.