Creating a reference to a complex emergency situation using time series methods: war in Guinea-Bissau 1998-1999

Impacts of complex emergencies or relief interventions have often been evaluated by absolute mortality compared to international standardized mortality rates. A better evaluation would be to compare with local baseline mortality of the affected populations. A projection of population-based survival data into time of emergency or intervention based on information from before the emergency may create a local baseline reference. We find a log-transformed Gaussian time series model where standard errors of the estimated rates are included in the variance to have the best forecasting capacity. However, if time-at-risk during the forecasted period is known then forecasting might be done using a Poisson time series model with overdispersion. Whatever, the standard error of the estimated rates must be included in the variance of the model either in an additive form in a Gaussian model or in a multiplicative form by overdispersion in a Poisson model. Data on which the forecasting is based must be modelled carefully concerning not only calendar-time trends but also periods with excessive frequency of events (epidemics) and seasonal variations to eliminate residual autocorrelation and to make a proper reference for comparison, reflecting changes over time during the emergency. Hence, when modelled properly it is possible to predict a reference to an emergency-affected population based on local conditions. We predicted childhood mortality during the war in Guinea-Bissau 1998-1999. We found an increased mortality in the first half-year of the war and a mortality corresponding to the expected one in the last half-year of the war.     

Effects of Medicaid managed care policies on mental health service use among a national probability sample of children in the child welfare system

Children in the child welfare system are dependent upon Medicaid to finance services for their considerable mental health needs. This study examines the effects of Medicaid policies on mental health service use among a national probability sample of children in the child welfare system. Data for this study came from the National Survey of Child and Adolescent Well-Being, the Caring for Children in Child Welfare study, and the Area Resource File. Weighted multivariate logistic regression analyses were conducted to estimate effects of policy variables on children's use of mental health services, controlling for child-level covariates and county-level health resources. Children in counties with behavioral carve-outs under Medicaid managed care had lower odds of inpatient mental health service use. Medicaid managed care enrollment and variations in type of provider reimbursement did not affect use of mental health services. Older age, greater need for mental health services, and higher levels of caregiver education were associated with increased odds of service use. Restrictions on use of inpatient mental healthcare caused by behavioral carve-outs may disproportionately affect children in the child welfare system who have high rates of such use. Careful adoption of carve-outs is necessary to assure appropriate care for these children.     

Social identities and political cleavages: the role of political context

Summary. Using a novel method, the paper investigates the influence of social group identities on attitudes and on voting in a variety of political contexts. Examining the major regions of Britain, Canada and the USA, we find considerable national and regional diversity in the nature of social cleavages. For example, social class and race had widely different effects across societies, but within societies their effects on attitudes and on voting were very similar. However, despite that, age and religion had a similar effect on attitudes across societies; the effects on voting varied considerably. The significant within-country differences underline the importance of using region, rather than country, as the unit of analysis. More importantly, these results highlight the role of political context, especially competing cleavages and the structure of party competition, in the establishment of politically relevant social cleavages.     

SOCIAL BACKGROUND,EDUCATION, AND INEQUALITY

The role parents' education plays for the educational achievements of children is a source of unequal opportunities. Through this channel the number of educated affects the options of future cohorts, creating a social multiplier effect making improvements in education self‐reinforcing. Policies to compensate for inequalities of opportunities—public education or transfers—have very different implications. Transfers not only reduce inequality on impact but also reduce social mobility, while public education—even if a perfect substitute to private education—works in the opposite direction. Social impediments to education are similar to a market imperfection, and publicly provided education may lead to a Pareto improvement. (JEL D3, I2, H2, H4)     

‘Lost in transition?’ – Newly educated social workers’ reflections on their first months in practice

Entering the work of world can involve significant challenges for the beginning practitioner. The transition process from university to work can play an important role in the emerging practitioner’s development as a social worker. The present longitudinal study follows 12 Swedish social work graduates from university and over their first four years in practice. The study provides an insight into how newly educated practitioners may experience the transition from university to the world of work and considers how they can be prepared and supported to meet the challenges of practice within contemporary work contexts. The students were first interviewed just prior to leaving university [see Tham &; Lynch (2014). Prepared for practice? Graduating social work students’ reflections on their education, competence and skills. Social Work Education, 33(6), 704–717]. This paper captures the reflections of these students after four months in practice. Feelings of unpreparedness, unorganised, or even ‘chaotic’ perceptions of the workplace and uncertainty about the future were emergent themes, particularly among new practitioners employed in social services. The findings illustrate the vulnerability of these new practitioners and the importance of workplace induction and the provision of adequate support in their new professional roles.     

Entrepreneurial Motivations and Capabilities of Migrant Entrepreneurs in Australia

This article presents findings on immigrant entrepreneurship in Australia. The relationship between the entrepreneurial start‐up motivation, co‐ethnic preferences and entrepreneurial capabilities of established immigrant businesses are explored. We analyse data collected with a self‐administered survey questionnaire from 157 immigrant entrepreneurs in Melbourne's suburbs. Our findings show that immigrant entrepreneurs who report a high level of individual achievement as their start‐up motivation also report high levels of entrepreneurial capabilities in terms of opportunity recognition, managerial innovativeness and proactiveness. Immigrant entrepreneurs who are highly influenced by co‐ethnic preferences on staff employment and customer targeting report higher opportunity recognition than those who have a co‐ethnic preference on suppliers. We provide important insights and explanations for these findings and their implications for Australian immigrant entrepreneurs and policymakers.     

Chinese Immigrants in the U.S. Labor Market: Effects of Post‐Tiananmen Immigration Policy1

The Tiananmen Square protests in 1989 and ensuing government crackdown affected Chinese nationals not only at home but also around the world. The U.S. government responded to the events in China by enacting multiple measures to protect Chinese nationals present in the United States. It first suspended all forced departures among Chinese nationals present in the country as of June 1989 and later gave them authorization to work legally. The Chinese Student Protection Act, passed in October 1992, made those Chinese nationals eligible for lawful permanent resident status. These actions applied to about 80,000 Chinese nationals residing in the United States on student or other temporary visas or illegally. Receiving permission to work legally and then a green card is likely to have affected recipients’ labor market outcomes. This study uses 1990 and 2000 census data to examine employment and earnings among Chinese immigrants who were likely beneficiaries of the U.S. government’s actions. Relative to immigrants from Hong Kong, Taiwan, and South Korea – countries not covered by the post‐Tiananmen immigration policy measures – highly educated immigrants from mainland China experienced significant employment and earnings gains during the 1990s. Chinese immigrants who arrived in the U.S in time to benefit from the measures also had higher relative earnings in 2000 than Chinese immigrants who arrived too late to benefit. The results suggest that getting legal work status and then a green card has a significant positive effect on skilled migrants’ labor market outcomes.     

Computer use and ulnar neuropathy: results from a case-referent study

We aimed to evaluate associations between vocational computer use and 1) ulnar neuropathy, and 2) ulnar neuropathy- like symptoms as distinguished by electroneurography. We identified all patients aged 18-65 years, examined at the Department of Neurophysiology on suspicion of ulnar neuropathy, 2001-2007. We mailed a questionnaire to 546 patients with ulnar neuropathy, 633 patients with ulnar neuropathy-like symptoms, and three community referents per case, matched on sex, age, and primary care centre. From a Job Exposure Matrix we extracted estimates of daily hours of computer use. The analysis was performed by conditional logistic regression.There were a negative association between daily hours of computer use and the two outcomes of interest. Participants who reported their elbow to be in contact with their working table for 2 hours or more during the workday had an elevated risk for ulnar neuropathy (OR=2.16, 95 % CI; 1.06-4.44).The two outcomes were not associated with daily hours of computer use. Findings suggested specific effects of pressure on the elbow, and might be an explanation for the overweight of left-sided outcomes in this primarily right-handed group. Preventive efforts would then be straightforward by providing appropriate arm support for the left arm and elbow.