Data tilting for time series

Summary. We develop a general methodology for tilting time series data. Attention is focused on a large class of regression problems, where errors are expressed through autoregressive processes. The class has a range of important applications and in the context of our work may be used to illustrate the application of tilting methods to interval estimation in regression, robust statistical inference and estimation subject to constraints. The method can be viewed as 'empirical likelihood with nuisance parameters'.     

产业转型、公共支持与农民工就业转变研究

产业转型和政府公共支持是影响农民工就业转变的两个重要因素。从产业转型对农民工就业转变影响、公共支持对农民工就业转变影响、产业转型与公共支持二者间的关系等方面对我国产业转型、公共支持与农民工就业结构文献进行了归纳和评述。在评述的基础上,还对促进农民工实现就业转变进行了深入分析。     

基于知识溢出的R&D时滞性理论及实证研究——以北京地区为例

知识溢出过程中时间滞后性的研究,是解决知识溢出测度这一技术创新与区域经济增长领域难点问题的关键步骤之一。从知识溢出的角度研究R&D过程中的时滞性,对R&D时滞性的影响因素、不同主体表现、实证研究成果进行理论梳理。运用知识生产函数测度R&D的知识溢出,构建多元回归模型,利用2002—2010年间的数据考察了北京地区R&D活动与中关村科技园创新绩效之间的关系。实证研究结果表明:全国高校R&D知识溢出效应存在1年的滞后期;北京高校R&D知识溢出对中关村科技园创新绩效带来正的溢出效应,全国企业R&D对中关村科技园创新绩效的影响集中体现在其研发的新产品导致的溢出效应。     

从挑战到和解:具身认知进路与近现代哲学之关系演变

认知科学中的具身认知进路宣称其在重要的论点和方法上挑战了传统的认识论哲学。在论点上,支持者们认为传统哲学中对认识起源的理解表现为两个极端的倾向,即实在论和唯心论。这两个极端的立场都起始于笛卡尔的追寻稳固认识根基的倾向。同样受笛卡尔的影响,西方传统哲学的主流将心智视为离身的,而认知科学最近得出的结论表明,心智是具身的。在方法上,具身认知提倡者们共同表现出了一种对包括现代哲学在内的哲学省思方法的贬低和蔑视。然而,具身认知进路对哲学的批判被其自身的发展走向所否定。具身认知进路的主张主要来自于现代哲学中的具身性思想,而其方法论的沙文主义也随着具身认知进路提倡者们对现象学的深入了解而消退。     

Smoothing for discrete-valued time series

We deal with smoothed estimators for conditional probability functions of discrete-valued time series { Y_t } under two different settings. When the conditional distribution of Y_t given its lagged values falls in a parametric family and depends on exogenous random variables, a smoothed maximum (partial) likelihood estimator for the unknown parameter is proposed. While there is no prior information on the distribution, various nonparametric estimation methods have been compared and the adjusted Nadaraya–Watson estimator stands out as it shares the advantages of both Nadaraya–Watson and local linear regression estimators. The asymptotic normality of the estimators proposed has been established in the manner of sparse asymptotics, which shows that the smoothed methods proposed outperform their conventional, unsmoothed, parametric counterparts under very mild conditions. Simulation results lend further support to this assertion. Finally, the new method is illustrated via a real data set concerning the relationship between the number of daily hospital admissions and the levels of pollutants in Hong Kong in 1994–1995. An ad hoc model selection procedure based on a local Akaike information criterion is proposed to select the significant pollutant indices.     

论苏东坡诗词英译--概念整合理论视角

中国古典诗词蕴含博大精深的文化概念,文本中体现出作者对世界和人生的认知,在概念整合理论四空间认知模式的指导下对中国古典诗词进行英译,能有效地避免翻译过程中的误译。从概念整合理论的角度解读苏东坡诗词的英译过程,可以验证概念整合理论四空间认知模式对翻译的指导意义,从而为中国古典诗词英译提供借鉴。     

A Conditional Density Approach to the Order Determination of Time Series

The study focuses on the selection of the order of a general time series process via the conditional density of the latter, a characteristic of which is that it remains constant for every order beyond the true one. Using simulated time series from various nonlinear models we illustrate how this feature can be traced from conditional density estimation. We study whether two statistics derived from the likelihood function can serve as univariate statistics to determine the order of the process. It is found that a weighted version of the log likelihood function has desirable robust properties in detecting the order of the process.     

布伦塔诺的意向性学说浅析

布伦塔诺意向性学说的思想渊源可上溯至古希腊亚里士多德和中世纪经院哲学,其要义在于强调意识(心理现象、心理活动)与对象的不可分离的关系。意识只有在对对象的关涉、指向中才能产生和存在。就近代哲学而言,意向性学说可以说是对笛卡儿的独立自在的"我思"之为无所思的思的一种批判和否定,实际是继承了康德和黑格尔关于意识与对象之综合统一的学说。布伦塔诺意向性学说有其困难之处,这种包含着困难的学说、特别是其中的"对象的意向的内存在"概念使得人们误以为他否定了对象的意识之外的存在。但这些困难为后世哲学家留下了更多的思考空间,并激发和促进了后来的现象学思潮的产生和发展。     

甘肃省人口婚姻意愿调查分析

本文利用问卷调查数据,分析了甘肃省居民婚姻意愿现状,主要对择偶标准、期望初婚年龄、期望夫妻年龄差和期望婚居模式四个方面进行分析。调查发现,甘肃男性择偶时较看重身体健康,甘肃女性择偶时较看重经济收入;甘肃居民的平均初婚年龄逐步提高;绝大多数居民期望婚姻中丈夫的年龄大于妻子,且倾向于男大于女1-2岁;从夫居和独立居住是普遍接受的婚居模式。虽然现代婚姻观对甘肃居民有一定影响,但是这里的婚姻观仍较传统。     

中国上市公司并购长期价值效应分析

运用DEA模型度量公司并购前后4年的绩效,通过分析并购前后公司绩效指数θ·变化情况,论证公司并购活动对公司价值提升的影响.结果表明,在中国,并购对公司绩效具有较强的提升作用.尤其是最近几年,并购的业绩提升作用具有加强的趋势.