Semi-Markov Disability Insurance Models

In this article, we present a stochastic model for disability insurance contracts. The model is based on a discrete time non homogeneous semi-Markov process (DTNHSMP) to which the backward recurrence time process is introduced. This permits a more exhaustive study of disability evolution and a more efficient approach to the duration problem. The use of semi-Markov reward processes facilitates the possibility of deriving equations of the prospective and retrospective mathematical reserves. The model is applied to a sample of contracts drawn at random from a mutual insurance company.     

Indicators for European Union Policies. Business as Usual?

This paper looks at the role of statistics-based knowledge in the making of EU policy. We highlight shortcomings in the use of statistical indicators made in the course of the Lisbon strategy, ended in 2010. In our opinion the shortcomings are: (i) The paradox of the coexistence within the same European Commission of two holistic frameworks: the Structural Indicators and the Sustainable Development Indicators. One does not understand which of these two systems is taken to measure the overall policy performance of the European Union. (ii) A communication issue whereby the Lisbon strategy and its offspring EU 2020 are not communicated (Lisbon is to the average citizen the capital of Portugal) and are especially not communicated in relation to existing statistical indicators of good quality, against the opinion of academicians that transparency and accountability based on sound statistics favour democracy and participation. We illustrate the reasons that lead us to see these points as problematic and offer suggestions on how these should be tackled in line with the practices developed in the Open Method of Coordination. The danger is that in the absence of a debate on the issue, these shortcomings be perpetuated in the EU 2020 strategy.     

Chronic pain,pain severity and analgesia use in Australian women of reproductive age

Background

The increasing prevalence and adverse outcomes associated with opioid analgesia use in women of reproductive age have become a significant public health issue internationally, with use during pregnancy potentially affecting maternal and infant health outcomes.

The greening of the booth: Environmental awareness,movements and policies in Italy

This paper presents a comprehensive, if only sketchy, case‐study of environmental awareness, movements and policies in Italy. For brevity's sake, no attempt is made to draw explicit international comparison or to use the case as a starting point for theoretical generalizations; although both are implicit. The history of Italian environmentalism is divided into five periods: pre‐history (1900–1950), early history (1950–1967), the ‘ecological spring’ (1968–1973), the seventies and the eighties. The growth of environmentalism in the seventies is analyzed at three levels: institutional, cultural, and political. Developments in the last decade are studied in several sectors: laws and institutions, business, professions and research, public opinion, movements, organizations and parties. A section is devoted to the anti‐nuclear campaign.     

Measuring the adoption of innovation. A typology of EU countries based on the Innovation Survey

Based on the Community Innovation Survey, this paper suggests new indicators of innovation adoption. The magnitude of innovation adoption is assessed for 22 EU countries and different industries. The most striking feature is the correlation between the innovation activities and the adoption rate. Countries with strong R&D and human resources and high innovation output exhibit the highest adoption rates. This supports the idea that innovation adoption requires an absorption capability. In addition, the specificities of each country regarding the prevailing types of innovation and adoption (product or process, cooperation-based adoption or internal adoption) allow us to draw up a typology of the EU countries, for which a specific geographical pattern is observed.     

Equilibrium in Continuous‐Time Financial Markets: Endogenously Dynamically Complete Markets

We prove existence of equilibrium in a continuous‐time securities market in which the securities are potentially dynamically complete: the number of securities is at least one more than the number of independent sources of uncertainty. We prove that dynamic completeness of the candidate equilibrium price process follows from mild exogenous assumptions on the economic primitives of the model. Our result is universal, rather than generic: dynamic completeness of the candidate equilibrium price process and existence of equilibrium follow from the way information is revealed in a Brownian filtration, and from a mild exogenous nondegeneracy condition on the terminal security dividends. The nondegeneracy condition, which requires that finding one point at which a determinant of a Jacobian matrix of dividends is nonzero, is very easy to check. We find that the equilibrium prices, consumptions, and trading strategies are well‐behaved functions of the stochastic process describing the evolution of information. We prove that equilibria of discrete approximations converge to equilibria of the continuous‐time economy.     

Computational Algorithms for Moments of Accumulated Markov and Semi-Markov Rewards

Power moments for accumulated rewards defined on Markov and semi-Markov chains are studied. A model with mixed time-space termination of reward accumulation is considered for inhomogeneous in time rewards and Markov chains. Characterization of power moments as minimal solutions of recurrence system of linear equations, sufficient conditions for finiteness of these moments and upper bounds for them, expressed in terms of so-called test functions, are given. Backward recurrence algorithms for funding of power moments of accumulated rewards and various time-space truncation approximations reducing dimension of the corresponding recurrence relations are described.     

Wavelet deconvolution in a periodic setting

Summary.  Deconvolution problems are naturally represented in the Fourier domain, whereas thresholding in wavelet bases is known to have broad adaptivity properties. We study a method which combines both fast Fourier and fast wavelet transforms and can recover a blurred function observed in white noise with O { n    log ( n )²} steps. In the periodic setting, the method applies to most deconvolution problems, including certain 'boxcar' kernels, which are important as a model of motion blur, but having poor Fourier characteristics. Asymptotic theory informs the choice of tuning parameters and yields adaptivity properties for the method over a wide class of measures of error and classes of function. The method is tested on simulated light detection and ranging data suggested by underwater remote sensing. Both visual and numerical results show an improvement over competing approaches. Finally, the theory behind our estimation paradigm gives a complete characterization of the 'maxiset' of the method: the set of functions where the method attains a near optimal rate of convergence for a variety of L ^p loss functions.     

Free agents’ impact on the labor market for baseball players

This paper evaluates the 1976 free agent rule’s impact on the labor market for baseball players. Free agency has specific consequences for monopsonistic exploitation and racial discrimination in salary determination. It reduces monopsonistic exploitation for all players and increases salary opportunities for black and Latino players. However, this change in a player’s status vis-à-vis a team has generated salary disparities among players based, not on race, but bargaining position. I would like to thank Linda Kammann, Mary O’Brien, and Benjamin Preston for their research assistance. Also I wish to thank John Siegfried and an anonymous referee for their comments. I remain solely responsible for the contents of this paper.     

Reclaiming Life: Six Consumers of Mental Health Services Talk About What Helped and What Did Not Help Them Get Their Lives Back

This article summarizes a roundtable discussion held at Thresholds in Chicago, Illinois in September 2012, where six people diagnosed with serious mental illness talked about what helped and did not help them recover and successfully reclaim their lives. Their comments, taken as part of their personal narratives, can help enhance understanding of the recovery process. The discussion is organized by the themes that emerged: considering life as distinct from diagnosis, meeting basic needs, empowerment, education, community, faith and hope, healthy thinking, peers, and focus on wellness. Panel members also offer advice for mental health service providers.