Latin American convergence and divergence towards the mortality profiles of developed countries

It is uncertain whether Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) countries are approaching a single mortality regime. Over the last three decades, LAC has experienced major public health interventions and the highest number of homicides in the world. However, these interventions and homicide rates are not evenly shared across countries. This study documents trends in life expectancy and lifespan variability for 20 LAC countries, 2000–14. By extending a previous method, we decompose differences in lifespan variability between LAC and a developed world benchmark into cause-specific effects. For both sexes, dispersion of amenable diseases through the age span makes the largest contribution to the gap between LAC and the benchmark. Additionally, for males, the concentration of homicides, accidents, and suicides in mid-life further impedes mortality convergence. Great disparity exists in the region: while some countries are rapidly approaching the developed regime, others remain far behind and suffer a clear disadvantage in population health.     

经济新常态下产业园区的发展趋势

经济发展进入到一个新常态,向形态更高级、分工更复杂、结构更合理的阶段转换。在这个过程中,产业园区的发展可能就是形态更加高级,内部分工可能更加复杂,整个结构可能更加趋向合理和科学的发展方式。在经济新常态下,产业园区发展会出现一些新特点和新趋势:第一,从量的快速扩张向质的提升转变;第二,土地资源驱动园区发展模式的转换;第三,园区的产业链式和集群化的发展趋势;第四,产业园区要素与城区功能结合整合的趋势;第五,创新型科技园区加快建设和发展趋势;第六,生态化园区进一步发展趋势;第七,多样化园区融资体系探索和创新模式;第八,自由贸易园区的探索和发展。     

The Electoral College and Conflict in American History and Politics

The historical relationship between the electoral college and controversial U.S. presidential elections, specifically with respect to conflict, is examined. The elections of 1800, 1824, 1860, 1876, 1888, 1968, and 2000 are examined. Aside from the 2000 election, there has been essentially no conflict in American history due to the electoral college. The constitutional structure and thinking behind the form of the electoral college is given, with emphasis on the federal aspects of the structure. The current movement to abolish the electoral college in favor of direct popular vote is depicted, along with the arguments against making that change. The conclusion is that we as a nation are far better off to retain the status quo than to make the called-for change.     

Generationswechsel im Management ost- und westdeutscher Unternehmen

Currently, in the top-management of German enterprises a generational shift is taking place. The paper looks at the consequences of this change concerning the future of the ‘German model of capitalism’. Are the managers of the new generation still holding on to the traditional German management culture or are they orienting themselves more strongly towards the US-American shareholder-value model? In order to clarify this question, the existing empirical results of management research are systematically evaluated. According to the results of this analysis we are not going to face a far-reaching Americanization of the management culture. However, under the pressure of globalization a significant differentiation between management culture in large enterprises on the one hand and management culture in small and medium-sized enterprises on the other hand occurs. While managers of large enterprises adopt elements of the American management model to a great degree, German management seems to become even more accentuated in the culture of small and medium-sized enterprises. In the context of this recent development existing differences between the management in Eastern and Western German enterprises dissolve along with the alternation of generations.     

Computing maximum likelihood estimates from type II doubly censored exponential data

It is well-known that, under Type II double censoring, the maximum likelihood (ML) estimators of the location and scale parameters, θ and δ, of a twoparameter exponential distribution are linear functions of the order statistics. In contrast, when θ is known, theML estimator of δ does not admit a closed form expression. It is shown, however, that theML estimator of the scale parameter exists and is unique. Moreover, it has good large-sample properties. In addition, sharp lower and upper bounds for this estimator are provided, which can serve as starting points for iterative interpolation methods such as regula falsi. Explicit expressions for the expected Fisher information and Cramér-Rao lower bound are also derived. In the Bayesian context, assuming an inverted gamma prior on δ, the uniqueness, boundedness and asymptotics of the highest posterior density estimator of δ can be deduced in a similar way. Finally, an illustrative example is included.     

我国西部地区生态环境存在的问题及对策

西部地区虽然经济欠发达,但在我国经济社会发展中占有重要位置。一方面西部地区是我国的重要能源基地,也是长江、澜沧江、黄河、黑河、珠江等大江大河的发源地和主要集水区;另一方面,西部地区野生动植物资源丰富,是我国许多珍稀野生动植物的主要栖息地。因此,西部地区的生态环境建设不仅对西部地区自身发     

浅析建筑市场监理运行现状与对策

文章透析了监理单位的外部管理现状 ,内部运行机制及监理业务的竞争环境 ,并提出了相应的对策与建议     

A Bayesian Adjustment for Covariate Misclassification with Correlated Binary Outcome Data

Estimated associations between an outcome variable and misclassified covariates tend to be biased when the methods of estimation that ignore the classification error are applied. Available methods to account for misclassification often require the use of a validation sample (i.e. a gold standard). In practice, however, such a gold standard may be unavailable or impractical. We propose a Bayesian approach to adjust for misclassification in a binary covariate in the random effect logistic model when a gold standard is not available. This Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach uses two imperfect measures of a dichotomous exposure under the assumptions of conditional independence and non-differential misclassification. A simulated numerical example and a real clinical example are given to illustrate the proposed approach. Our results suggest that the estimated log odds of inpatient care and the corresponding standard deviation are much larger in our proposed method compared with the models ignoring misclassification. Ignoring misclassification produces downwardly biased estimates and underestimate uncertainty.     

说一切有部的弥勒观

学界一般认为古代龟兹是小乘说一切有部文化中心,克孜尔中心柱窟图像构成是小乘僧人一佛一菩萨(弥勒)崇拜的反映.本文探讨了说一切有部对弥勒菩萨的态度.从与说一切有部相关的典籍中检索出有关弥勒的文献并进行分析,最后发现这个部派其实反对弥勒崇拜,这使我们重新审视传统理论的两个方面--克孜尔石窟的教派属性,以及弥勒菩萨的图像志.     

On the Evolution of Competitive Balance: The Impact of an Increasing Global Search

The Coase theorem maintains that where free-market precepts exist, the allocation of property rights does not impact the distribution of resources. An application to Major League Baseball suggests that institutions such as free agency and the reverse-order amateur draft would not impact player distributions and therefore would not impact competitive balance. The present study finds that the distribution of wins is generally consistent with the precepts of the Coase theorem and therefore suggests a course for those who wish to alter the level of competitive balance: Major League Baseball should increase its focus on expanding the size of its labor pool. (JEL O15 , L83 , C22 )