Socio-political forecasting and management information systems

This paper is an attempt to place the forecasting of socio-political variables in the context of actual information needs of industrial companies. Initially discussion is of the effect of socio-political variables upon companies with a review of this significance for decision makers and decision takers. An attempt is then made to categorise existing forecasting techniques in the context of socio-political data whilst regard is paid to the possible effects of socio-political variables on companies. Discussion is then broadened to a consideration of current practice both in the UK and in the USA. Problems implicit in current practice are commented upon and the paper ends with the conclusion that socio-political forecasting is currently significant to many companies and that there is a major potential role for management scientists to play in the development and implementation of appropriate techniques.     

An analytic simulation model of human reproduction with demographic and biological components

Abstract This Monte Carlo model for simulating the reproductive history of a cohort of women is described in detail. The model provides for patterns of survival, sterility, formation and dissolution of sexual unions, fecundability, lactation, foetal wastage, family planning practices etc. Natality indices specific for marital status, for duration of marriage and for age, as well as analyses of birth spacing patterns are among the results that may be obtained. In the model, the experimental unit is an individual woman. The complete life history of a woman is generated and recorded before the history of the next woman is generated. The data for the whole cohort are analyzed at the end of the programme. The model includes two kinds of states into which a woman may pass, namely: (1) permanent changes of status such as death, sterility, or becoming a family planner, and (2) temporary states, each with a probability distribution of length of stay. The probabilities of the various events or changes of state may vary from age, parity, and other features of a woman's status or history. Natural fecundability at any age may also vary from woman to woman. In this programme natality patterns and specific indices such as age-specific fertility rates are produced, in a quasi-realistic fashion, by the interplay of the demographic and biological parameters postulated for any cohort. Consequently, the effect of changes in anyone factor can be studied, as well as the interaction resulting from changes in several factors. The purposes and potentials of the model are both substantive and methodological. As an illustration, a series of computer runs attempting to simulate the reproductive patterns of Indian women is presented. These results, as well as some additional ones, indicate some effects of changes in marital patterns, levels of fecundability, duration of post-partum non-susceptibility, age incidence of sterility and foetal wastage. In the final section of the paper, the advantages and possible applications of the model are discussed together with the limitations encountered to date in the efforts to apply the model.     

Cross-state variation in Medicaid programs and female labor supply

Using a pooled cross-section data set from the 1980 through 1993 Current Population Survey March Supplements, we test if different Medicaid benefit levels across states impact the labor supply behavior of female heads of households. The ordinary least square (OLS) results support the prediction that Medicaid expenditures reduce labor supply. Controlling for state fixed or random effects alters the effect of both AFDC and Medicaid on the decision to participate as well as the number of hours worked. We also find that while the effects of program generosity are sensitive to the inclusion of state effects those of variation in eligibility thresholds are not.     

Teaching and research in quantitative methods in university management schools

Much has been written and said about the education and development of operational researchers and management scientists from a specialist departmental viewpoint. Considerably less attention has been devoted to the role of management schools in this process and, more importantly, in their provision of a general education in quantitative methods for all their postgraduate taught course students. This paper aims to make a contribution towards rectifying this relative neglect. Moreover, it specifically contrasts the two sets of activities and argues that they are largely fulfilling different purposes and satisfying in the main different job markets. The paper also addresses some of the problems of management science researchers within a management school milieu.     

Modelling and measurement in retailing practice

The retailing sector has traditionally attracted the attention of economists and marketing specialists but only comparatively recently, at least in the UK, have management scientists become involved. Yet there is much of a measurement and modelling character in retailing to which the management scientist can contribute most usefully. This paper examines two areas of major practical importance to retailers: labour productivity, store location and size. Basic measurement and the establishment of standards can lead to considerable performance improvements in the first area. The second problem area is strategic rather than operational in essence and lends itself to either mathematical modelling or empirical techniques or to a combination of the two approaches.     

Turning away from the public sector in children's out-of-home care: An English experiment

This paper reports on the evaluation of an English experiment which, for the first time, moved statutory social work support for children and young people in out-of-home care from the public to the private or independent sector. Five social work practices (SWPs), independent or semi-independent of local government, were established and evaluated using a matched control design with integrated process evaluation. Social work teams in the public sector, selected to correspond to key characteristics of the SWP sites, provided control sites.     

A journey of embedding mental health lived experience in social work education

Abstract

The value of learning from mental health lived experience is widely acknowledged, however, the nature of lived experience involvement in Australian social work education seldom extends beyond guest lecturing. Further, few opportunities exist that build the capacity of people with lived experience to become educators within tertiary settings. In this paper we present the Valuing Lived Experience Project (VLEP), an initiative led by a Lived Experience Academic (LEA) that seeks to systematically and meaningfully embed lived experience into the social work curriculum at a Western Australian university by providing significant opportunities for the capacity building of both individuals with mental health lived experience and academics. Given the relative infancy of service user involvement in Australian social work education, the VLEP offers a number of opportunities for reflection and consideration. A long-standing partnership between a LEA and Social Work Academic is described, the activities and key learnings of the VLEP to date are outlined, and we offer our reflections on challenges encountered throughout the journey. We hope that our experiences and learnings can be drawn upon to progress lived experience participation in tertiary settings and further legitimise lived experience involvement in the education of social workers.     

Adaptation to unemployment: Effects of a mine closure on husbands and wives

The purpose of this study was to increase understanding of how individuals/couples respond to the unemployment of the primary breadwinner. Data were collected from 66 individuals (33 couples) shortly after becoming unemployed and again one year later. Results determined that the significant predictor variables of economic satisfaction, marital adjustment, and depression were primarily economic, marital, and emotional variables, respectively. Findings also showed that interaction existed among economic, marital, and emotional variables in predicting the three well-being outcomes. Additionally, differences were found in the pattern of results for husbands and for wives. Based on these findings, areas and hypotheses for future study are proposed.Carl A. Ridley received his Ph.D. from Florida State University. He is a Professor in the Division of Child Development and Family Relations, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721. His research interests include relationships and conflict management.Mari S. Wilhelm received her Ph.D. from Michigan State University. She is an Assistant Professor in the School of Family and Consumer Resources, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721. Her research interests include financial management, socio-economic stress, financial stress and problems.     

The chief executive and his information system

The authors examine the attitudes of British chief executives towards their information systems using recent survey evidence. They discuss the chief executive's individual computation needs and the extent to which he satisfies these personally, his attitudes towards computer-based information and corporate models, and his general informational and analytical requirements. Of particular interest, is the relative contribution as judged by chief executives of intuitive judgement, computer-based analysis and manual analysis respectively to strategic decision-taking; comparative valuations of formal and informal information systems are also ascertained. On the evidence provided by the chief executives, future prospects for computer systems and modelling techniques at strategic level are generally sound although it is difficult to see them achieving the dominance at top managerial level once envisaged by the more optimistic and imaginative management scientists and cyberneticians.     

The ebb and flow of marital lust: A relational approach

This diary study examined daily fluctuation in marital lust over a 56‐day period. The purposes of the study were to describe typical patterns of lust over time and to examine intrapersonal and interpersonal associations between relationship affect, relationship states, and marital lust. We also tested various daily moderational predictions. Four patterns of daily fluctuation in lust were identified. Typical patterns varied from almost no fluctuation to wide fluctuation over time. Our findings showed that daily affect was generally related to lust both within partners and between partners. Also, spouses’ relational states (closeness and equality of power) moderated several of these intrapersonal and interpersonal associations. In general, the affect‐lust link was strengthened by closeness and equality of power, while the lust‐lust link between spouses was often conditioned by both relationship affect and relational states. However, the role of negative affect toward spouses in interactions with other constructs was not as expected. We discuss possible explanations for the findings and implications for further research.