Individual Uncertainty About Longevity

This article presents an assessment of individual uncertainty about longevity. A survey performed on 3,331 French people enables us to record several survival probabilities per individual. On this basis, we compute subjective life expectancies (SLE) and subjective uncertainty regarding longevity (SUL), the standard deviation of each individual’s subjective distribution of her or his own longevity. It is large and equal to more than 10 years for men and women. Its magnitude is comparable to the variability of longevity observed in life tables for individuals under 60, but it is smaller for those older than 60, which suggests use of private information by older respondents. Our econometric analysis confirms that individuals use private information—mainly their parents’ survival and longevity—to adjust their level of uncertainty. Finally, we find that SUL has a sizable impact, in addition to SLE, on risky behaviors: more uncertainty on longevity significantly decreases the probability of unhealthy lifestyles. Given that individual uncertainty about longevity affects prevention behavior, retirement decisions, and demand for long-term care insurance, these results have important implications for public policy concerning health care and retirement.     

The Middle Class in Russia

Analyses of Russian society often refer to the emergence of a new middle class in Russia, but attempts to establish its existence, size, characteristics, and behaviors are contradictory and inconclusive. In surveying this debate, Samson and Krasil'nikova argue that this is no longer a useful concept, and that a population's ability to adapt to global economic forces should be the basis for distinguishing strata.     

What do employers think about employing people with experience of mental illness in New Zealand workplaces?

The researchers investigated employers' experiences with individuals with a mental illness and in their workplaces. Seventy-two business owners or human resource managers were interviewed. Most knew the prospective employee's health background prior to deciding to employ them. The majority of the reported experiences with employed individuals were very positive. Key strategies the employers or managers reported using to support employees were: to create trustworthy relationships, to work through issues and to seek external support.     

Estimation of parameters in incomplete data models defined by dynamical systems

Parametric incomplete data models defined by ordinary differential equations (ODEs) are widely used in biostatistics to describe biological processes accurately. Their parameters are estimated on approximate models, whose regression functions are evaluated by a numerical integration method. Accurate and efficient estimations of these parameters are critical issues. This paper proposes parameter estimation methods involving either a stochastic approximation EM algorithm (SAEM) in the maximum likelihood estimation, or a Gibbs sampler in the Bayesian approach. Both algorithms involve the simulation of non-observed data with conditional distributions using Hastings–Metropolis (H–M) algorithms. A modified H–M algorithm, including an original local linearization scheme to solve the ODEs, is proposed to reduce the computational time significantly. The convergence on the approximate model of all these algorithms is proved. The errors induced by the numerical solving method on the conditional distribution, the likelihood and the posterior distribution are bounded. The Bayesian and maximum likelihood estimation methods are illustrated on a simulated pharmacokinetic nonlinear mixed-effects model defined by an ODE. Simulation results illustrate the ability of these algorithms to provide accurate estimates.     

Deconvolution Estimation of Onset of Pregnancy with Replicate Observations

In general, the precise date of onset of pregnancy is unknown and may only be estimated from ultrasound biometric measurements of the embryo. We want to estimate the density of the random variables corresponding to the interval between last menstrual period and true onset of pregnancy. The observations correspond to the variables of interest up to an additive noise. We suggest an estimation procedure based on deconvolution. It requires the knowledge of the density of the noise which is not available. But we have at our disposal another specific sample with replicate observations for twin pregnancies. This allows both to estimate the noise density and to improve the deconvolution step. Convergence rates of the final estimator are studied and compared with other settings. Our estimator involves a cut‐off parameter for which we propose a cross‐validation type procedure. Lastly, we estimate the target density in spontaneous pregnancies with an estimation of the noise obtained from replicate observations in twin pregnancies.     

Competitive Capabilities among Manufacturing Plants in Developing,Emerging, and Industrialized Countries: A Comparative Analysis

Competitive capabilities have been defined as a plant's actual performance relative to its competitors, with the most commonly investigated capabilities being quality, delivery, flexibility, and cost. However, most research in this realm has investigated capabilities within developed countries, and neglected the context of developing and emerging nations, which are increasingly becoming viable economic entities in global supply chains in their own right. The present study fills this gap and carries out a comparative analysis of competitive capabilities among plants in developing, emerging, and industrialized countries. Basing our arguments on the resource‐based view of the firm, we suggest that the influence of competitive capabilities on each other varies among plants in differentially industrialized regions. Specifically, we suggest that, on average, competitive capabilities tend to influence each other to a greater degree in plants in emerging and developing countries compared to industrialized countries. Along similar lines, we suggest that the influence of the four competitive capabilities on performance improvement is manifested more strongly among plants in emerging and developing countries than among plants in industrialized nations. We investigate these contentions with data from 1,211 plants in 21 countries. The results are particularly important for decision makers as they decide on the increasingly global location of their manufacturing operations or the configuration of their global supply chains.     

Development of a computer-aided production management course in industrial engineering curriculum

This paper describes the successful development and demonstration of an integrated computer-aided production management course which is very user-friendly and which facilitates integration of decisions. An icon-menu system that associates icons with the various decision models which were all implemented under the same environment allows students to easily integrate individual decision situations. Decisions were edited and their effect on other decisions confirmed that the hierarchical individual decisions situations in production management need to be integrated. The software developed runs on a personal computer coupled to a projection panel and overhead projector. This arrangement makes it an effective teaching facility for production management.     

EXPLODING THE MYTH: DO ALL QUALITY MANAGEMENT PRACTICES CONTRIBUTE TO SUPERIOR QUALITY PERFORMANCE?

In his landmark article on total quality management, Powell (1995) lamented the lack of large scale studies investigating quality management practices and performance. This study begins to fill that void using a large, random sample of manufacturing sites. The results show that quality practices can be categorized into nine dimensions. However, not all of them contribute to superior quality outcomes. “Employee commitment,” “shared vision,” and “customer focus” combine to yield a positive correlation with quality outcomes. Conversely, other “hard” quality practices, such as “benchmarking,” “cellular work teams,” “advanced manufacturing technologies,” and “close supplier relations” do not contribute to superior quality outcomes.