Dual effects of ‘losses disguised as wins’ and near-misses in a slot machine game

Individually, both near-misses and losses disguised as wins (LDWs) have been seen to exert pro-motivational effects on gambling. However, it is not clear whether both structural characteristics are effective within the same game. Participants (n = 40) played a slot machine simulation. The simulation delivered near-misses, wins and ‘full-misses’. Half the participants also received LDWs that occurred independently of the outcomes on the payline. Valence and motivation ratings were collected after each round. Results showed that the LDW group reported increased valence ratings compared to the no-LDW group. Within the LDW group, trials with LDWs also resulted in increased enjoyment compared to trials without LDWs. We distinguished near-misses falling either side of the payline. Near-misses before the payline (NMB) were rated as more motivational than near-misses after the payline (NMA), whereas NMAs were rated as more aversive than NMBs. These differences between the two near-miss types were exacerbated by LDWs. Results demonstrate LDWs increase the trial-by-trial enjoyment of non-win outcomes. The motivational and hedonic effects of near-misses differed for events either side of the payline, and these differences were exaggerated by the presence of LDWs. Thus, near-misses can retain their effectiveness in complex forms of gambling that also deliver LDWs.     

Social security, economic growth, and the rise in elderly widows’ independence in the twentieth century

The percentage of elderly widows living alone rose from 18% in 1940 to 62% in 1990, while the percentage living with adult children declined from 59% to 20%. This study finds that income growth, particularly increased Social Security benefits, was the single most important determinant of living arrangements, accounting for nearly one-half of the increase in independent living. Unlike researchers in earlier studies, we find no evidence that the effect of income become stronger over the period. Changes in age, race, immigrant status, schooling, and completed fertility explain a relatively small share of the changes in living arrangements.     

Keeping Track of Panel Members: An Experimental Test of a Between-Wave Contact Strategy

The Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) is a nationally representative longitudinal survey of approximately 9,000 families and their descendants that has been ongoing since 1968. Since 1969, families have been sent a mailing asking them to update or verify their contact information to keep track of their whereabouts between waves. Having updated contact information prior to data collection is associated with fewer call attempts and refusal conversion efforts, less tracking, and lower attrition. Given these apparent advantages, a study was designed in advance of the 2009 PSID field effort to improve the response rate of the contact update mailing. Families were randomly assigned to the following conditions: mailing design (traditional versus new), $10 as a prepaid versus postpaid incentive, timing and frequency of the mailing (July 2008 versus October 2008 versus both times) and whether or not they were sent a study newsletter. This paper reports on findings with regards to response rates to the mailing and the effect on production outcomes including tracking rates and number of calls during 2009 by these different conditions, examines whether the treatment effects differ by key characteristics of panel members including likelihood of moving and anticipated difficulty in completing an interview, and provides some recommendations for the use of contact update strategies in panel studies.     

Welfare work requirements and child well-being: Evidence from the effects on breast-feeding

A central theme of welfare reform is that recipients are required to engage in work activities. In many states, these work requirements apply to mothers whose children are a few months old, which may increase the costs and decrease the prevalence of breast-feeding. Given the substantial benefits of breast-feeding, any reduction represents an important negative consequence of these requirements. Our results suggest that in the absence of welfare reform, the national breast-feeding rate six months after birth would have been 5.5% higher in 2000. Such negative consequences of these policies must be weighed against potential benefits as states refine their welfare programs.     

Resolving inconsistencies in trends in old-age disability: Report from a technical working group

In September 2002, a technical working group met to resolve previously published inconsistencies across national surveys in trends in activity limitations among the older population. The 12-person panel prepared estimates from five national data sets and investigated methodological sources of the inconsistencies among the population aged 70 and older from the early 1980s to 2001. Although the evidence was mixed for the 1980s and it is difficult to pinpoint when in the 1990s the decline began, during the mid- and late 1990s, the panel found consistent declines on the order of 1%-2.5% per year for two commonly used measures in the disability literature: difficulty with daily activities and help with daily activities. Mixed evidence was found for a third measure: the use of help or equipment with daily activities. The panel also found agreement across surveys that the proportion of older persons who receive help with bathing has declined at the same time as the proportion who use only equipment (but not personal care) to bathe has increased. In comparing findings across surveys, the panel found that the period, definition of disability, treatment of the institutionalized population, and age standardizing of results were important to consider. The implications of the findings for policy, national survey efforts, and further research are discussed.     

Trends in Functional and Activity Limitations among Chinese Oldest‐Old, 1998 to 2008

China has the world's largest oldest‐old population, but information on trends in late‐life disability is lacking. We use data from the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey for 1998 to 2008 to determine whether prevalence of limitations with physical functions and daily activities has changed recently among the Chinese population aged 80 to 105 and, if so, to investigate the factors associated with the change. We find that prevalence of need for assistance with activities of daily living and inability to independently conduct instrumental activities of daily living declined substantially. Males did not experience improvement in ability to carry out underlying physical functions over the same period, but females did. Variables associated with trends in one or more of these outcomes were adequacy of medical care as a child, childhood hunger, father's occupation in agriculture, main occupation before age 60 in agriculture, adequacy of current medical care, and body weight.     

Marital status and earnings in developed countries

When estimating earnings equations for men in the United States, a dichotomous variable for whether or not the man is currently married is often included as a regressor. The coefficient estimate for this variable is most usually large and significant. However, there is rarely much discussion of the marriage effect. This effect is central to this study, which contributes to the understanding of this statistical association in two ways. First, it shows that the relationship exists in almost all of the fourteen developed countries examined and across several different time periods. Controlling for age, and, when available, education, race/ethnicity, hours worked, and location, marriage differences in annual earnings in favor of currently married males range from 0% to 30%. Second, it finds that there are important differences between those who are separated, divorced, widowed, and never married.I am grateful for comments by John Bound, David Lam, Tom Maloney, Tim Waidmann, participants in the Economic Demography Seminar at the University of Michigan, an anonymous referee, and the editor. I also thank the staff of the Luxembourg Income Study for facilitating my use of their data base. Supplemental tables are available from the author upon request.     

Labor market outcomes of immigrant women in the United States: 1970 to 1990

42% of immigrant workers in the US are women. Data from the 1970, 1980, and 1990 US censuses are analyzed in the study of differences in labor market outcomes between US-born and immigrant women, and among immigrant women born in different countries or regions of the world. There was little difference between US-born and immigrant women as a whole in 1970. However, over the next 20 years, immigrants women's labor force participation rate and weekly earnings relative to natives became lower, and their unemployment rates became higher. By 1990, the wage gap was 14%. At the same time, the share of self-employed women and the amount of time worked among employed women were almost the same for immigrant women and the US-born throughout the period 1970-90. Immigrants born in the UK, Canada, Europe, Japan, Korea, China, the Philippines, and the Middle East have had steady or improved wages and unemployment relative to US-born women. Immigrants from Mexico and Central America have experienced relatively high unemployment and low earnings, with the wage gap reaching 35% in 1990. Disparities in the number of completed years of schooling explains a substantial share of the observed differences in labor market outcomes.     

Reassessing the decline in parent-child old-age coresidence during the twentieth century

The share of the elderly living with an adult child decreased monotonically throughout the twentieth century, while the probability of reaching old age and the number of years lived in old age increased. As a result, the expected number of life-years lived with adult children while in old age may have increased, decreased, or stayed the same. I estimate that the number of life-years lived in old-age coresidence with adult children stayed roughly constant between 1900 and 1940, while the rate of coresidence declined. Life years lived in old-age coresidence then declined substantially between 1940 and 1990. Moreover, the number of life-years lived in old-age coresidence in 1990 would have been roughly half as great as it actually was had there been no improvements in mortality between 1900 and 1990. And if fertility had remained at its 1900 levels, life-years lived in old-age coresidence would have been about 45% higher in 1990 than it actually was. The results imply that analyses of the change in familial assistance to the elderly should also consider changes in mortality.