MEASURING LEVELS OF PARTY IDENTIFICATION DOES QUESTION ORDER MATTER?

This article examines whether asking the vote question beforeparty identification alters the strength of partisanship andits relationship to vote choice. It employs the 1992 BritishElection Survey, which included a random split half-sample experiment,and the 1992–93 American Election Study Panel, where thequestion order for party identification and the vote were changed.The results show that altering the question ordering had verylittle effect in Britain and no significant effect in the UnitedStates. These results are consistent with the notion that partyidentification is one of the more enduring and stable componentsof mass political behavior in both presidential and parliamentarysystems.     

An analytic simulation model of human reproduction with demographic and biological components

Abstract This Monte Carlo model for simulating the reproductive history of a cohort of women is described in detail. The model provides for patterns of survival, sterility, formation and dissolution of sexual unions, fecundability, lactation, foetal wastage, family planning practices etc. Natality indices specific for marital status, for duration of marriage and for age, as well as analyses of birth spacing patterns are among the results that may be obtained. In the model, the experimental unit is an individual woman. The complete life history of a woman is generated and recorded before the history of the next woman is generated. The data for the whole cohort are analyzed at the end of the programme. The model includes two kinds of states into which a woman may pass, namely: (1) permanent changes of status such as death, sterility, or becoming a family planner, and (2) temporary states, each with a probability distribution of length of stay. The probabilities of the various events or changes of state may vary from age, parity, and other features of a woman's status or history. Natural fecundability at any age may also vary from woman to woman. In this programme natality patterns and specific indices such as age-specific fertility rates are produced, in a quasi-realistic fashion, by the interplay of the demographic and biological parameters postulated for any cohort. Consequently, the effect of changes in anyone factor can be studied, as well as the interaction resulting from changes in several factors. The purposes and potentials of the model are both substantive and methodological. As an illustration, a series of computer runs attempting to simulate the reproductive patterns of Indian women is presented. These results, as well as some additional ones, indicate some effects of changes in marital patterns, levels of fecundability, duration of post-partum non-susceptibility, age incidence of sterility and foetal wastage. In the final section of the paper, the advantages and possible applications of the model are discussed together with the limitations encountered to date in the efforts to apply the model.     

Present positions and future prospects in management science

This paper offers some thoughts on the present state of management science as a discipline and a profession, and considers possible developmental strategies. The growth of management science, and the optimism this engendered, was largely premised on the successful use of scientific methodology and quantitative techniques to solve a relatively narrow range of management problems. In the 1970s, however, this positivist/quantitative ‘traditional management science’ became subject to increasing critical assault from those who wanted to broaden the impact of the discipline. Alternative management science approaches were born—soft systems thinking, organisational cybernetics, critical management science—and succeeded in establishing themselves. The existence of these alternative strands of work, alongside traditional management science, raises important questions about the future development of the discipline and profession. In this paper four developmental possibilities are set down and examined to see what future prospects they hold out for management science. It is argued that three of these—the isolationist, imperialist and pragmatist strategies—would lead the discipline into a dead end. A pluralist option, however, offers excellent opportunities for successful, future development.     

The simulation of industrial robot systems

This paper describes the GRASP computer aided design system for modelling and evaluating industrial robot workplaces. GRASP satisfies a range of simulation needs within the context of designing, implementing and operating industrial robotic systems. The GRASP software may be used to investigate robots operating by themselves or, more likely, as part of an integrated cell. Facilities within GRASP assist workplace layout, position and velocity evaluations, clash detection and co-ordination between items. A robot library exists and is being extended, and an embryo off-line programming facility has been used under restricted conditions. GRASP has been used to help solve a wide range of practical industrial robot problems and has proved itself technically, and also as an educational tool, by showing how a proposed system would operate. The paper describes the facilities within GRASP.     

The future for wool

Single dimensional projections are inadequate to determine what the future holds. A wide variety of economic, technological and social changes will influence the future environment for wool and other fibres. In these circumstances, and bearing in mind that, for planning purposes, strategic assumptions are often markedly superior to firm predictions, a set of alternative scenarios is a useful instrument. Consideration of some brief scenarios leads to the conclusion that wool's future depends, in no small measure, upon the actions of the wool-growing industry and governments of wool exporting countries.     

Probability models for family building: An analytical review

Considerable literature now exists on stochastic models for the reproductive history of a cohort of couples. These models are of varying complexity and the relationships between separate treatments are not always clear. A classification system for such models is proposed, followed by a historical review of models for family building and for logically related processes. Models, differing only in treatment of time as discrete or continuous, are presented in detail for the simple case where the prob ability of conception is constant, and all conceptions lead to live births which are associated with a fixed nonsusceptible period. Analysis of different treatments is facilitated by introducing the notion of the time when a conception is recorded. Emphasis is placed on results for the probability of a recording at a specified time t, the probability of r recordings by time t, and the expected number of recordings in time t. Differences between the discrete and continuous time models are made explicit. It is shown that results for these models can be derived using renewal theory techniques, which are presented. More complex models based on renewal theory and allowing for several pregnancy outcomes or for variability in parameters are briefly described, followed by generalized models which allow parameters to vary with time. Applications of family building models are summarized.     

Truncation effect in closed and open birth interval data

A numerical investigation using a flexible simulation model to establish interval analysis as an index for changing natality patterns. Such an index should reflect parity distribution, the age at which women start reproduction, and the spacing of their births. The simulated statistical results illustrate the truncation effect that reflects a negative correlation between parity and the length of closed and open intervals in a birth or marriage cohort. Truncation is related to the duration of marriage at survey, but this duration interacts with other assumptions. Holding duration constant does not ensure that the data on intervals will reflect postulated changes in the distributions. For complete birth orders, this analysis does reflect patterns of child spacing. However, it ignores changes in the parity distribution, whether produced by deliberate limitation of family size or by the onset of secondary sterility. This difficulty is not overcome by life table analysis except under highly restrictive assumptions. It is doubtful whether the current emphasis on securing such data is justified. Further investigation is needed to provide a better basis for the definition and analysis of interval data if they are to be used.