利用智能主体分析"时尚"的涌现

时尚作为一种社会现象,是由个别人物的倡导和示范,先在少数人中流行,然后迅速蔓延到社会.多数人出于新奇与从众心理而仿效.对于它的研究有助于人们把握这种社会现象的产生与蔓延过程,深入认识和控制它的发展.由于它的复杂多样性,当前还缺乏对它的定量分析与研究.论文利用基于智能主体的仿真方法,分析了时尚的涌现过程.文中建立了两种模型,用于确定公众能否接受某种时尚的临界值.一种模型基于公众能获取全部信息,另一种则基于个人只能获取邻近信息.     

Restricted mean survival time as a summary measure of time‐to‐event outcome

Many clinical research studies evaluate a time‐to‐event outcome, illustrate survival functions, and conventionally report estimated hazard ratios to express the magnitude of the treatment effect when comparing between groups. However, it may not be straightforward to interpret the hazard ratio clinically and statistically when the proportional hazards assumption is invalid. In some recent papers published in clinical journals, the use of restricted mean survival time (RMST) or τ ‐year mean survival time is discussed as one of the alternative summary measures for the time‐to‐event outcome. The RMST is defined as the expected value of time to event limited to a specific time point corresponding to the area under the survival curve up to the specific time point. This article summarizes the necessary information to conduct statistical analysis using the RMST, including the definition and statistical properties of the RMST, adjusted analysis methods, sample size calculation, information fraction for the RMST difference, and clinical and statistical meaning and interpretation. Additionally, we discuss how to set the specific time point to define the RMST from two main points of view. We also provide developed SAS codes to determine the sample size required to detect an expected RMST difference with appropriate power and reconstruct individual survival data to estimate an RMST reference value from a reported survival curve.     

Bhattacharyya-Type Information Inequality for the Bayes Risk

Lower bounds for the Bayes risk are obtained. The bounds improve the Brown-Gajek bound and the asymptotic expression is derived. As an application of the bound, lower bounds for the local minimax and Bayes prediction risk are also given.     

Host plant conspicuousness and the distribution of eggs and larvae in the butterfly,Anthocharis scolymus (Lepidoptera: Pieridae)

Summary We investigated how the distribution pattern of eggs and larval on the host plant,Turritus glabra, was influenced by the oviposition behavior of the pierid butterflyAnthocharis scolymus. Females searched for the host plants visually and they frequently approached taller host plants with sparse surrounding vegetation. After encountering host plants, oviposition behavior of females was independent of host plant characteristics such as height, density, and type of surrounding vegetation. A female laid eggs singly on a host plants. Most females appeared to lay their eggs regardless of the presense of eggs on the host plant. Consequently egg and larva tended to be abundant on conspicuous host plants as measured by height or relative isolation from other plants. However, overcrowding of eggs on an individual host decreased the survival rate of larvae.     

Competitive habitat utilization in the damselfly,Mnais nawai (Zygoptera: Calopterygidae) coexisting with a related species,Mnais pruinosa

Reproductive behaviors related to habitat utilization were studied in males of the damsefly,Mnais nawai, which has two male forms, territorial orange-winged males (nawai) and non-territorial pale-orange-winged males (sahoi), at the upper part of a mountain stream where they partiallycoexist with a related species,Mnais pruinosa, which also has two male forms, territorial orange-winged males (esakii) and non-territorial hyaline-winged males (strigata). These two species showed parapatric distribution; the lower part of the stream was occupied byM. nawai, and the upper part byM. pruinosa. In the present study, cross-matings occurred between bothMnais species, although normal intraspecific matings occurred more frequently than cross-matings. Territorial males of both species copulated with conspecific females that entered their territory and guarded the ovipositing females, probably to avoid sperm displacement resulting from subsequent copulations. Severe competition for oviposition sites by territorial males even occurred between the two species. On the other hand, non-territorial males of both species have alternative mating strategies (including several tactics such as sneaking, takeover and interception). The possible benefits from conflict among territorial males of both species is discussed.     

Effect of Violation of the Normal Assumption on MI and ML Estimators in the Analysis of Incomplete Data

Asymptotic distributions of normal-theory-based ML/MI estimators are studied in a simple regression model under general distributions with MAR missing data. The asymptotic variance of the ML/MI estimator of residuals’ variance is explicitly derived, from which it follows that the kurtosis of the error distribution primarily affects the asymptotic variance. Results of numerical simulations conducted to study finite sample properties of the estimators, conformed largely to the asymptotic results, and they also indicated interesting findings particularly for small samples, which do not follow from the asymptotic property. It is concluded that the ML estimators perform best in the situation studied here.     

A value of information framework for assessing the trade-offs associated with uncertainty,duration, and cost of chemical toxicity testing

A number of investigators have explored the use of value of information (VOI) analysis to evaluate alternative information collection procedures in diverse decision-making contexts. This paper presents an analytic framework for determining the value of toxicity information used in risk-based decision making. The framework is specifically designed to explore the trade-offs between cost, timeliness, and uncertainty reduction associated with different toxicity-testing methodologies. The use of the proposed framework is demonstrated by two illustrative applications which, although based on simplified assumptions, show the insights that can be obtained through the use of VOI analysis. Specifically, these results suggest that timeliness of information collection has a significant impact on estimates of the VOI of chemical toxicity tests, even in the presence of smaller reductions in uncertainty. The framework introduces the concept of the expected value of delayed sample information, as an extension to the usual expected value of sample information, to accommodate the reductions in value resulting from delayed decision making. Our analysis also suggests that lower cost and higher throughput testing also may be beneficial in terms of public health benefits by increasing the number of substances that can be evaluated within a given budget. When the relative value is expressed in terms of return-on-investment per testing strategy, the differences can be substantial.