Point-symmetry models and decomposition for collapsed square contingency tables

For square contingency tables with ordered categories, there may be some cases that one wants to analyze them by considering collapsed tables with some adjacent categories combined in the original table. This paper proposes three kinds of new models which have the structure of point-symmetry (PS), quasi point-symmetry and marginal point-symmetry for collapsed square tables. This paper also gives a decomposition of the PS model for collapsed square tables. The father's and his daughter's occupational mobility data are analyzed using new models.     

Asymptotic normality of the deconvolution kernel density estimator under the vanishing error variance

Let $X_1,\dots ,X_n$ be i.i.d. observations, where $X_i=Y_i+{\sigma }_n{Z}_i$ and the $Y$’s and $Z$’s are independent. Assume that the $Y$’s are unobservable and that they have the density $f$ and also that the $Z$’s have a known density $k$. Furthermore, let ${\sigma }_n$ depend on $n$ and let ${\sigma }_n\to 0$ as $n\to \infty$. We consider the deconvolution problem, i.e. the problem of estimation of the density $f$ based on the sample $X_1,\dots ,X_n$. A popular estimator of $f$ in this setting is the deconvolution kernel density estimator. We derive its asymptotic normality under two different assumptions on the relation between the sequence ${\sigma }_n$ and the sequence of bandwidths $h_n$. We also consider several simulation examples which illustrate different types of asymptotics corresponding to the derived theoretical results and which show that there exist situations where models with ${\sigma }_n\to 0$ have to be preferred to the models with fixed $\sigma$.     

Intergenerational Mobility in Relative Educational Attainment and Health-Related Behaviours

Social Indicators Research - Research on intergenerational social mobility and health-related behaviours yields mixed findings. Depending on the direction of mobility and the type of mechanisms...     

A New Test on High-Dimensional Mean Vector Without Any Assumption on Population Covariance Matrix

In this paper, a new test for the equality of the mean vectors between a two groups with the same number of the observations in high-dimensional data. The existing tests for this problem require a strong condition on the population covariance matrix. The proposed test in this paper does not require such conditions for it. This test will be obtained in a general model, that is, the data need not be normally distributed.     

A multilevel analysis of perceived intergenerational mobility and welfare state preferences

Previous scholarship suggests that the effect of perceived intergenerational mobility on attitudes related to social justice, inequality and redistribution is more salient than the effect of individuals' objective intergenerational mobility. However, virtually no studies have attempted to link individuals' perception of experiencing intergenerational mobility and their support for different welfare state programmes. In my study using nationally representative and comparative survey data for 33 Western European welfare democracies and post‐socialist transition societies, I found that perceived intergenerational mobility is associated with support for certain welfare state programmes. Results from multilevel linear probability models indicate that subjectively downwardly mobile individuals are less likely to support education and healthcare expenditure and more likely to prefer targeted assistance of the poor, while subjectively upwardly mobile individuals oppose extra spending on housing and old‐age pensions. The described associations are more vividly manifested in post‐socialist societies than in the analysed Western European democracies.     

The evolution of the Georgian social protection system since independence: An unclear future despite recent expansion

In the first decade of transition, the Georgian social protection system experienced a major retrenchment as the government struggled to finance welfare provision in the face of massive economic contraction and the near collapse of public institutions. Since 2004, this trend has been reversed, with the economy returning to a fast growth path and public administration improving considerably. Recent reforms, including the notable introduction of universal public health insurance, are welcome steps towards building a modern welfare state. Major challenges still remain, however, especially in relation to the system's limited effect on widespread poverty. Decelerating growth, the lack of strong pro‐welfare actors, and the absence of positive external pull factors may stall or prevent future growth, but the changing nature of the social contract between the people and government, as well as Georgian politicians' growing recognition of the importance of the welfare system for inclusive growth, leaves ample space for optimism.     

Decompounding discrete distributions: A nonparametric Bayesian approach

Suppose that a compound Poisson process is observed discretely in time and assume that its jump distribution is supported on the set of natural numbers. In this paper we propose a nonparametric Bayesian approach to estimate the intensity of the underlying Poisson process and the distribution of the jumps. We provide a Markov chain Monte Carlo scheme for obtaining samples from the posterior. We apply our method on both simulated and real data examples, and compare its performance with the frequentist plug-in estimator proposed by Buchmann and Grübel. On a theoretical side, we study the posterior from the frequentist point of view and prove that as the sample size n→∞, it contracts around the “true,” data-generating parameters at rate $1/\sqrt{n}$, up to a $\log n$ factor.     

Analyzing Collision,Grounding, and Sinking Accidents Occurring in the Black Sea Utilizing HFACS and Bayesian Networks

This study examines and analyzes marine accidents that have occurred over the past 20 years in the Black Sea. Geographic information system, human factor analysis and classification system (HFACS), and Bayesian network models are used to analyze the marine accidents. The most important feature distinguishing this study from other studies is that this is the first study to analyze accidents that have occurred across the whole Black Sea. Another important feature is the application of a new HFACS structure to reveal accident formation patterns. The results of this study indicate that accidents occurred in high concentrations in coastal regions of the Black Sea, especially in the Kerch Strait, Novorossiysk, Kilyos, Constanta, Riva, and Batumi regions. The formation of grounding and sinking accidents has been found to be similar in nature; the use of inland and old vessels has been highlighted as important factors in sinking and grounding incidents. However, the sequence of events leading to collision-contact accidents differs from the sequence of events resulting in grounding and sinking accidents. This study aims to provide information to the maritime industry regarding the occurrence of maritime incidents in the Black Sea, in order to assist with reduction and prevention of the marine accidents.     

Welfare state dissatisfaction and support for major welfare reform: Towards means-tested welfare or a universal basic income?

This research note investigates how people combine their views on two radically opposing welfare reforms: a universal basic income and a fully means-tested welfare state. Using data from the 2016–2017 European Social Survey, we found that support for transformative welfare reform is rooted in perceptions of the performance of the current system. The preferred direction of reform, however, strongly depends on the specific aspects of the welfare state people are happy or unhappy with. At the country-level, we show that underperforming welfare states—in terms of higher poverty rates and lower social spending—increase popular demand for transformative welfare reform, in either direction. These findings are of crucial importance for ongoing debates about the future of the welfare state.     

Positive-definite modification of a covariance matrix by minimizing the matrix $$\ell_{\infty}$$ ℓ ∞ norm with applications to portfolio optimization

AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis - The covariance matrix, which should be estimated from the data, plays an important role in many multivariate procedures, and its positive definiteness...