Review and Outlook:the Research on Internet Communication in 2009

2009 is a fruitful year for the research on internet communication in China.This article will review and comment on papers from 20 different CSSCI journals which specialize in the field of internet communication. 1.Basic theory of internet communication Some researchers believe that the new media is a chaotic system.The spread of information based on new media is kind of circulation from order to disorder,then back to a new order.The results are unpredictable.Some researchers turn their attention to new...     

A NEW CONFIDENCE BAND FOR CONTINUOUS CUMULATIVE DISTRIBUTION FUNCTIONS

We consider confidence bands for continuous distribution functions. Following a review of the literature we find that previously considered confidence bands, which have exact coverage, are all step-functions jumping only at the sample points. We find that the step-function bands can be constructed through rectangular tolerance regions for an ordered sample from the uniform distribution R(0, 1). We then construct a set of new bands. Two criteria for assessing confidence bands are presented. One is the power criterion, and the other is the average-width criterion that we propose. Numerical comparisons between our new bands and the old bands are carried out, and show that our new bands perform much better than the old ones.     

Weighted Bootstrap Confidence Intervals for Generalized Behrens-Fisher Problems

In this article, the weighted bootstrap difference between two-sample means for generalized Behrens-Fisher problems is investigated along with its strong consistency. Moreover, the one-order accurate weighted bootstrap approximation to the sample distribution of sample difference is also established and hence based on it the weighted bootstrap intervals for the population difference is constructed. Simulation studies show that the weighted bootstrap interval performs better than other intervals we considered in some cases.     

回顾与展望:2009年的网络传播研究

通过回顾和分析2009年新闻传播学CSSCI来源及扩展期刊的学术论文,从网络传播学基础理论、网络舆论与网络事件、网络与党的执政能力、网络传播法规与伦理道德、新兴网络媒体现象等五个方面综述2009年国内的网络传播研究成果。     

考虑决策者风险偏好的区间粗糙数多属性决策方法

文章针对属性值为区间粗糙数的多属性决策中如何考虑决策者风险偏好问题进行了研究,提出了一种新的区间粗糙数多属性决策方法.首先基于属性值与正负理想点距离远近来反映决策者偏好的思想定义了偏好距离,在此基础上利用熵权法计算属性权重,然后计算各方期望效用并按此排序.最后通过算例证明了此方法有效.     

群体分析视角下商业银行对金融体系的风险溢出效应研究

本文基于异质市场假说和高频数据,利用高频数据采样频率高及富含波动信息的特点,构造多银行和系统间多元联合分布过程,并将银行间的动态联系纳入考虑,构建了蕴含丰富经济意义、形式灵活的高频动态多条件CoVaR模型及基于此的群体性系统性风险贡献指标。从群体分析视角出发,研究了不同商业银行群体对金融体系的风险溢出效应。结果显示：就系统性风险贡献度而言,该模型准确刻画了近年不同时期下我国三类商业银行系统性风险贡献度的时变特征,其表现为在次贷危机及欧债危机、我国“钱荒”时期及股票市场异常动荡时期,由于风险的传染性等特征导致三类商业银行的系统性风险贡献度均有所上升,而在其他时期则相对平稳;就单个银行对系统的风险溢出影响而言,工商银行的风险溢出比率最大,与其庞大的资产规模以及在金融体系中的重要地位与作用密不可分;当分析同类型银行群体的风险冲击时,国有商行类的系统性风险溢出比率值最高,其次为股份制商行类,该两类的溢出比率相差无几,且均远大于城商行类,表明股份制商行对金融系统的风险溢出影响不可小觑;当剖析不同类型银行群体时,此模型同样适用。本文所构模型能够实现多个银行对金融系统极端风险贡献的度量,可为监管部门的分类监管及有限能力下银行救助顺序的确定提供一定参考依据。     

Fiducial inference under nonparametric situations

The object of the paper is to provide recipes for various fiducial inferences on a parameter under nonparametric situations. First, the fiducial empirical distribution of a random variable was introduced under nonparametric situations. And its almost sure behavior was established. Then based on it, fiducial model and hence fiducial distribution of a parameter are obtained. Further fiducial intervals of parameters as functionals of the population were constructed. Some of their frequentist properties were investigated under some mild conditions. Besides, p-values of some test hypotheses and their asymptotical properties were also given. Three applications of above results and further results were provided. For the mean, simulations on its interval estimator and hypothesis testing were conducted and their results suggest that the fiducial method performs better than others considered here.