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1.
Stephen J. Ruberg Frank E. Harrell Jr. Margaret Gamalo-Siebers Lisa LaVange J. Jack Lee Karen Price 《The American statistician》2019,73(1):319-327
ABSTRACTThe cost and time of pharmaceutical drug development continue to grow at rates that many say are unsustainable. These trends have enormous impact on what treatments get to patients, when they get them and how they are used. The statistical framework for supporting decisions in regulated clinical development of new medicines has followed a traditional path of frequentist methodology. Trials using hypothesis tests of “no treatment effect” are done routinely, and the p-value < 0.05 is often the determinant of what constitutes a “successful” trial. Many drugs fail in clinical development, adding to the cost of new medicines, and some evidence points blame at the deficiencies of the frequentist paradigm. An unknown number effective medicines may have been abandoned because trials were declared “unsuccessful” due to a p-value exceeding 0.05. Recently, the Bayesian paradigm has shown utility in the clinical drug development process for its probability-based inference. We argue for a Bayesian approach that employs data from other trials as a “prior” for Phase 3 trials so that synthesized evidence across trials can be utilized to compute probability statements that are valuable for understanding the magnitude of treatment effect. Such a Bayesian paradigm provides a promising framework for improving statistical inference and regulatory decision making. 相似文献
2.
Multi-valued strategy-proof social choice rules 总被引:10,自引:4,他引:6
In this paper we introduce a new definition of strategy-proofness for multi-valued social choice correspondences. We prove
two Gibbard-Satterthwaite type results for strategy-proof social choice correspondences. These results show that allowing
multiple outcomes as social choices will not necessarily lead to an escape from the Gibbard-Satterthwaite impossibility theorem.
Received: 24 January 2001/Accepted: 19 March 2001 相似文献
3.
Professor Stephen Senn Dr Dipti Amin Professor Rosemary A. Bailey Professor Sheila M. Bird FFPH Dr Barbara Bogacka Mr Peter Colman Dr rew Garrett Professor rew Grieve Professor Sir Peter Lachmann FRS FMedSci 《Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A, (Statistics in Society)》2007,170(3):517-579
4.
5.
Stephen Walker 《Statistics and Computing》1995,5(4):311-315
Laud et al. (1993) describe a method for random variate generation from D-distributions. In this paper an alternative method using substitution sampling is given. An algorithm for the random variate generation from SD-distributions is also given. 相似文献
6.
Christian P. Robert Xiao-Li Meng Jesper Møller Jeffrey S Rosenthal C Jennison M. A Hurn F Al-Awadhi Peter McCullagh Christophe Andrieu Arnaud Doucet Petros Dellaportas Ioulia Papageorgiou Ricardo S Ehlers Elena A Erosheva Stephen E Fienberg Jonathan J Forster Roger C Gill Nial Friel Peter Green David Hastie R King Hans R Künsch N. A. Lazar C Osinski 《Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B, Statistical methodology》2003,65(1):39-55
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8.
The use of optimal orthogonal array latin hypercube designs is proposed. Orthogonal arrays were proposed for constructing latin hypercube designs by Tang (1993). Such designs generally have better space filling properties than random latin hypercube designs. Even so, these designs do not necessarily fill the space particularly well. As a result, we consider orthogonal-array-based latin hypercube designs that try to achieve optimality in some sense. Optimization is performed by adapting strategies found in Morris & Mitchell (1995) and Ye et al. (2000). The strategies here search only orthogonal-array-based latin hypercube designs and, as a result, optimal designs are found in a more efficient fashion. The designs found are in general agreement with existing optimal designs reported elsewhere. 相似文献
9.
10.
Stephen T. Russell 《Journal of research on adolescence》2002,12(3):305-324
Adolescence is often assumed to be the most important period of life for understanding teen childbearing risk. Developmental perspectives challenge that assumption, offering the possibility that early childhood characteristics may have unique and lasting effects on the risk for teen childbearing. This study examined family life risk factors (socioeconomic status, family stress, and parental involvement in education) and how their effects on teen childbearing risk varied, depending on the childhood age at which they were experienced. Prospective life history data from the National Child Development Study of Great Britain were used to study a birth cohort of 4,928 British women, 15.3% of who became pregnant as teens. This study demonstrated that data from early childhood significantly contribute to the understanding of teen childbearing risk. 相似文献