Unit roots and structural breaks: The case of India 1900-1988

SUMMARY This paper tests the hypothesis of difference stationarity of macro-economic time series against the alternative of trend stationarity, with and without allowing for possible structural breaks. The methodologies used are that of Dickey and Fuller familiarized by Nelson and Plosser, and that of dummy variables familiarized by Perron, including the Zivot and Andrews extension of Perron's tests. We have chosen 12 macro-economic variables in the Indian economy during the period 1900-1988 for this study. A study of this nature has not previously been undertaken for the Indian economy. The conventional Dickey-Fuller methodology without allowing for structural breaks cannot reject the unit root hypothesis (URH) for any series. Allowing for exogenous breaks in level and rate of growth in the years 1914, 1939 and 1951, Perron's tests reject the URH for three series after 1951, i.e. the year of introduction of economic planning in India. The Zivot and Andrews tests for endogenous breaks confirm the Perron tests and lead to the rejection of the URH for three more series.     

Computer-Generated Change-Over Designs for Correlated Observations

Change-over designs with independently distributed errors in the model have been studied extensively in the literature. Martin and Eccleston (2001 Martin , R. J. , Eccleston , J. A. ( 2001 ). Optimal and near optimal designs for dependent observations . Statist. Applic. 3 : 101 – 116 . [Google Scholar]) gave an algorithm for the generation of efficient change-over designs when the errors are correlated. This article proposes an algorithm for the generation of efficient change-over designs for estimation of direct effects of treatments in the presence of first-order residual effects in the model and when the errors are correlated.     

The role of time perspective in predicting Iranian farmers’ participatory-based water conservation attitude and behavior

ABSTRACT

In current perspective, farmers’ participatory behavior toward conservation of water resources (FPBCWR) is one of the most important strategies under water resource management in rural Iran. In this regard, understanding the predictors of farmers’ participatory-based water conservation behaviors and attitudes is gaining more importance than earlier. Among different dimensions of farmers’ participatory behavior, the potential of temporal frames was examined rarely. Thus, 322 Iranian farmers were investigated to examine the potential of their time perspectives in predicting their participatory-based water conservation behavior and attitude. According to the study results, the effects of present orientation on attitude and behavior were negatively significant, while the effects of future orientation on attitude and behavior were positively significant, whereas its effects (path coefficients) were stronger than present orientation effects. Past orientation did not have a significant effect on attitude, though attitude positively and significantly affected farmers’ participatory behavior. The results of causal analysis revealed that presented model accounted for 58% of variance in farmers’ ‘behavior’ and 42% of variance in “attitude.” In conclusion, a few demonstrable illustrations of policy implications are presented to enable utilizing the important findings and concluding results of this study that is linked further with water resource management domain.     

On the one parameter unit-Lindley distribution and its associated regression model for proportion data

In this paper considering an appropriate transformation on the Lindley distribution, we propose the unit-Lindley distribution and investigate some of its statistical properties. An important fact associated with this new distribution is that it is possible to obtain the analytical expression for bias correction of the maximum likelihood estimator. Moreover, it belongs to the exponential family. This distribution allows us to incorporate covariates directly in the mean and consequently to quantify their influences on the average of the response variable. Finally, a practical application is presented to show that our model fits much better than the Beta regression.     

On Some New α-Modified Binomial and Poisson Distributions and Their Applications

A new class of α-modified binomial distribution has been proposed, and its distributional properties like probability generating function (pgf), moments, and their interrelations have been studied. Two new α-modified Poisson distributions and Poisson distribution have been obtained as limiting distributions. Modified binomial and Poisson distributions introduced by Berg and Jaworski (1988 Berg , S. , Jaworski , J. ( 1988 ). Modified binomial and Poisson distributions with application in random mapping theory . J. Statist. Plann. Infer. 18 : 313 – 322 . [Google Scholar]) have been seen as particular cases. Mixture distributions of α-modified binomial distributions have been derived. A new distributions called α-modified binomial distributions of type j, their moment properties, limiting distributions as α-modified Poisson distribution of type j, their different convolution properties, pgf, parameter estimators have been studied. Two more new distributions namely Doubly α-modified binomial distributions of type (i, j) and α-modified weighted generalized Poisson distributions of type (j ? 1) have also been studied. Various α-modified binomial and Poisson distributions of Berg and Mutafchiev (1990 Berg , S. , Mutafchiev , L. ( 1990 ). Random mapping with an attracting center: Lagrangian distributions and a regression function . J. Appl. Probab. 27 : 622 – 636 . [Google Scholar]) and Berg and Nowicki (1991 Berg , S. , Nowicki , K. ( 1991 ). Statistical inference for a class of modified power series distributions with applications to random mapping theory . J. Statist. Plann. Infer. 28 : 247 – 261 . [Google Scholar]) have been seen as special cases. Application of some of these proposed distributions have been identified.     

Discrete Gamma Distributions: Properties and Parameter Estimations

A two-parameter discrete gamma distribution is derived corresponding to the continuous two parameters gamma distribution using the general approach for discretization of continuous probability distributions. One parameter discrete gamma distribution is obtained as a particular case. A few important distributional and reliability properties of the proposed distribution are examined. Parameter estimation by different methods is discussed. Performance of different estimation methods are compared through simulation. Data fitting is carried out to investigate the suitability of the proposed distribution in modeling discrete failure time data and other count data.     

Vector autoregression modelling and forecasting growth of South Korea

In this paper, we have estimated vector autoregression (VAR), Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) and vector error-correction models (VECMs) using annual time-series data of South Korea for 1950-94. We find evidence supporting the view that growth of real per-capita income has been aided by income, investment and export growth, as well as government spending and exchange rate policies. The VECMs provide better forecasts of growth than do the VAR and BVAR models for both short-term and long-term predictions.     

Icon-ising national identity: France and India in comparative perspective

The article embeds the arguments of cultural theory and art history in a political science framework, in order to explain the construction of national identities. In comparing the French national allegory Marianne and her Indian counterpart Bharat Mata, the authors set out to trace the conceptual development of the icons, the psycho-history underlying their ongoing formative processes and their strategic function as signifiers that reinforce national identity. The conceptual prism of icon-ising, as one learns from this comparative analysis is what makes the study of processes of cultural negotiation, and an exploration of their impact on identity-formation possible.     

Efficient Block Designs for Dependent Observations—A Computer-Aided Search

In this article, the exchange and interchange algorithm of Zergaw (1989 Zergaw , G. ( 1989 ). A sequential method of constructing optimal block designs . Austral. J. Statist. 31 : 333 – 342 .[Crossref] , [Google Scholar]) and Martin and Eccleston (1992 Martin , R. J. , Eccleston , J. A. ( 1992 ). Recursive formulae for constructing block designs with dependent errors . Biometrika 79 : 426 – 430 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) have been modified and used for searching efficient block designs for making all possible pairwise treatment comparisons when observations are dependent. The lower bounds to the A- and D-efficiencies of the designs in a given class of the designs have been obtained for correlated observation structure and the procedure of computing lower bounds to A- and D-efficiencies has been incorporated in the algorithm. The algorithm has been translated into a computer program using Microsoft Visual C++. Using this program, a search for efficient designs for making all possible pairwise treatment comparisons has been made for v ≤ 10, b ≤ 33, k ≤ 10 such that bk ≤ 100 and v > k. The block designs considered are usual block designs (rectangular block designs) and circular block designs. Nearest neighbor (NN), autoregressive of order 1 (AR(1)) correlation structures are studied. The ranges of correlation coefficients for different correlation structures investigated are |ρ|≤0.50 for NN correlation structure in rectangular blocks, |ρ|≤0.45 for NN correlation structure in circular blocks, and |ρ|≤0.95 for AR(1) correlation structure. For these ranges, the matrix of correlation coefficients among observations within a block is positive definite. Robustness aspects of designs that are efficient for a given value of correlation have been investigated against other values of correlation coefficients. Robustness aspects of designs that are efficient for independent observations have also been studied for experimental situations with dependent observations.     

Analysis of a two-echelon inventory system with returns

Product take-back and recovery activities have grown in recent times as a consequence of stringent government regulations and increased customer awareness of environmental pollution. Inventory management in the context of product returns has drawn the attention of many researchers. However, the inherent complexity of the system with uncertain returns makes the analysis of the system extremely difficult. So far, the literature on this type of system is mostly limited to single echelons. The few papers available in literature on multi-echelon systems with returns base their analyses on simplified assumptions such as non-existence or non-relevance of set-up and holding costs at different levels. In this paper, we relax these assumptions and consider a two-echelon system with returns under more generalized conditions. We develop a deterministic model as well as a stochastic model under continuous review for the system, and provide numerical examples for illustration.