Betting Decision Under Break-Streak Pattern: Evidence from Casino Gaming

Cognitive bias is prevalent among gamblers, especially those with gambling problems. Grounded in the heuristics theories, this study contributes to the literature by examining a cognitive bias triggered by the break streak pattern in the casino setting. We postulate that gamblers tend to bet on the latest outcome when there is a break-streak pattern. Moreover, three determinants of the betting decision under break-streak pattern, including the streak length of the alternative outcome, the frequency of the latest outcome, and gender, were identified and examined in this study. A non-participatory observational study was conducted among the Cussec gamblers in a casino in Macao. An analysis of 1229 bets confirms our postulation, particularly when the streak of the alternative outcome is long, the latest outcome is frequent, and the gamblers are females. The findings provide meaningful implications for casino management and public policymakers regarding the minimization of gambling harm.     

Family size and educational attainment in England and Wales

In this paper, we use linked census data from England and Wales to investigate whether having a large number of siblings leads to lower educational attainment. There is a large literature suggesting that with large sibship size, parental resources will be diluted and this, in turn, will lead to lower educational attainment. Using twin births and the sex composition of the sibling group as instrumental variables, we find that the evidence of a family size effect on educational attainment is rather uncertain. Similar results are obtained when we use occupational attainment as the dependent variable. We also demonstrate the confounding of birth order and family size effects, and show that an adjusted birth order index proposed by Booth and Kee provides an effective solution to this estimation problem.     

“Unnatural Fornication” Cases Under State-Socialism: A Hungarian–Slovenian Comparative Social-Historical Approach

This comparative social-historical study examines different versions of state-socialist body politics manifested in Hungary and Slovenia mainly during the 1950s by using archive material of “unnatural fornication” court cases. By analyzing the available Hungarian “természet elleni fajtalanság” and Slovenian “nenaravno ob?evanje” court cases, we can shed light on how the defendants were treated by the police and the judiciary. On the basis of these archive data that have never been examined before from these angles, we can construct an at least partial picture of the practices and consequences of state surveillance of same-sex-attracted men during state-socialism. The article explores the functioning of state-socialist social control mechanisms directed at nonnormative sexualities that had long-lasting consequences on the social representation of homosexuality in both countries.     

A Preliminary Study on the Effectiveness of the Chinese Career Key Online

The Chinese Career Key (CCK) Online was studied for its effectiveness and user satisfaction. Study participants were 92 students at a public high school in Hong Kong. The research findings provide preliminary evidence of reliability, validity, and user satisfaction for the CCK Online. Limitations and implications for future studies and counseling practice across cultures are discussed.     

The Escalator: A Conveyor of Hong Kong's Culture

People believe that escalators provide a moreattractive, convenient, and physically less-demandingpedestrian access from one place to another. However, itdoes not mean all of us have to like them. Escalators do not only affect our perception of speed, butthe most important concern is that this urban objectalso influences our social relationships and humancommunication. Under the transmission of this urban object, we are treated as components (a what),rather than human beings (a who). Thus, this articlediscusses how modernist thinking affects how we see thisobject and ourselves, and examines the relative worth of it, in relation to the social lossincurred in the present or future. This article alsodiscusses how its presence in many of the daily settingsof urban life affects the culture, meaning and quality of life.Requests for reprints should be addressed SIU Kin Wai Michael, School of Design, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hunghom, Kowloon, Hong Kong.     

Relations Between Social Problem Solving and Indicators of Interpersonal and Family Well-Being Among Chinese Adolescents in Hong Kong

This study evaluated the dimensionality of the construct of social problem solving and examined the relationships between social problem solving and empathy, emotional well-being and family well-being in a sample of secondary school students in Hong Kong (N=1462). The participants completed measures of social problem solving (the 25-item short form of the Chinese version of the Social Problem-Solving Inventory: C-SPSI-R), empathy (the Chinese Interpersonal Reactivity Scale), emotional well-being (the Chinese Vengeance Scale) and family well-being (the Chinese Family Assessment Instrument and the Conflict Behaviour Questionnaire). Regarding the dimensionality of the C-SPSI, confirmatory factor analysis showed that the scale has a stable five-factor structure (RMSEA=0.05) and that the related subscales were reliable (with ranging from 0.65 to 0.81). Participants with higher levels of social problem solving had higher levels of empathy and lower personal distress in applying empathy, which suggested that these personal competencies were inter-related. Higher levels of social problem solving were also related to better emotional well-being (less tendency to take revenge) and better family quality of life (better family functioning and fewer parent-adolescent conflicts).     

Monte Carlo Approximations of the Quantiles of a Sample Statistic

We consider in this article the problem of numerically approximating the quantiles of a sample statistic for a given population, a problem of interest in many applications, such as bootstrap confidence intervals. The proposed Monte Carlo method can be routinely applied to handle complex problems that lack analytical results. Furthermore, the method yields estimates of the quantiles of a sample statistic of any sample size though Monte Carlo simulations for only two optimally selected sample sizes are needed. An analysis of the Monte Carlo design is performed to obtain the optimal choices of these two sample sizes and the number of simulated samples required for each sample size. Theoretical results are presented for the bias and variance of the numerical method proposed. The results developed are illustrated via simulation studies for the classical problem of estimating a bivariate linear structural relationship. It is seen that the size of the simulated samples used in the Monte Carlo method does not have to be very large and the method provides a better approximation to quantiles than those based on an asymptotic normal theory for skewed sampling distributions.     

Positive False Discovery Rate Estimate in Step-Wise Variable Selection

Selecting predictors to optimize the outcome prediction is an important statistical method. However, it usually ignores the false positives in the selected predictors. In this article, we advocate a conventional stepwise forward variable selection method based on the predicted residual sum of squares, and develop a positive false discovery rate (pFDR) estimate for the selected predictor subset, and a local pFDR estimate to prioritize the selected predictors. This pFDR estimate takes account of the existence of non null predictors, and is proved to be asymptotically conservative. In addition, we propose two views of a variable selection process: an overall and an individual test. An interesting feature of the overall test is that its power of selecting non null predictors increases with the proportion of non null predictors among all candidate predictors. Data analysis is illustrated with an example, in which genetic and clinical predictors were selected to predict the cholesterol level change after four months of tamoxifen treatment, and pFDR was estimated. Our method's performance is evaluated through statistical simulations.