THE BIAS IN PERIODOGRAM ORDINATES AND THE ESTIMATION OF ARMA MODELS IN THE FREQUENCY DOMAIN

The paper has its origin in the finding that the frequency-domain estimation of ARh4A models can produce estimates which may be remarkably biased. Both of the frequency-domain estimation methods considered in the paper are based on the frequency-domain likelihood function, which depends on the periodogram ordinates of the time series. It is found that, as estimates of the spectrum ordinates, the corresponding periodogram ordinates may contain a rather remarkable bias, which again causes bias in the estimates of parameters produced by a frequency-domain estimation method of an ARMA model. The bias is reduced by tapering the observed time series. An example is given of estimation experiments for simulated time series from a pure autoregressive process of order two.     

Risk management in public procurement for innovation: the case of Nordic–Baltic Sea cities

State support for innovation in enterprises has been long-standing. One of the specific support measures is public procurement for innovation, which has only recently re-emerged in academic discussion as well as in the European policy discourse. While the spillovers from this type of innovation policy measure may be substantial, the complex processes underlying the support for innovation through public procurement are associated with high risks. We take an exploratory approach to determine the state of practice of risk management in public procurement for innovation at the local level. Five case studies, which were selected as representative cases of the Nordic–Baltic Sea region in Europe, were analyzed. We found that the cities were, for the most part, actively involved in risk identification; the risks are primarily being met with mixed contracting strategies rather than comprehensive risk management tools.     

On the distributions of the differences between the estimated autocorrelations and partial autocorrelations at the same lag

Pukkila (1982) introduced a new portmanteau-type test of white noise. The test is based on the differences between the estimated autocorrelations and the corresponding partial autocorrelations. In the present paper the distributions of these differences are consider in the case of normal white noise. Approximations to these distributions are given. Goodness of fit of these theoretical distributions and the corresponding observed distributions is studied using simulated time series of various lengths.     

Using the Residual White Noise Autoregressive Order Determination Criterion to Identify Unit Roots in Arima Models

We present a simplified form of a univariate identification approach for time series models based on the residual white noise autoregressive order determination criterion and linear estimation methods. We also show how the procedure can be used to identify the degree of differencing necessary to induce stationarity in data. The performance of this approach is also contrasted with Portmanteau tests for detection of white noise residuals and with Dickey-Fuller and Bayesian procedures for detection of unit roots. Simulated and economic data are used to demonstrate the capabilities of the modified approach.     

Quo vadis public procurement of innovation?

Governments are actively looking for ways to use public procurement so that it would become more effective in facilitating innovation across public and private sectors. However, a shift towards public procurement of innovation (PPI) has proven to be difficult. Whereas the contemporary debate has mostly focused on how to reduce the barriers of PPI through re-conceptualizing the procurement process, there is a need to take into account also wider strategic factors through which governments create capacity to undertake PPI. By revisiting historic and contemporary policy initiatives, four strategies for the future can be envisioned: PPI as experimental innovation policy, from fiscal policy under austerity to PPI, mission-oriented PPI and shifts in administrative culture towards PPI. Each of the strategies demands different capacities from the entrepreneurial sector, as well as state, policy and administrative capacities from the public sector. These issues should be an inherent part of future policy-making and offer new avenues for PPI-related policy analysis and academic research.     

Catching up,forging ahead or falling behind? Central and Eastern European development in 1990–2005

This paper aims to assess the economic development and development policies in the Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries in 1990–2005, from the collapse of the USSR to the enlargement of the European Union. A great number of authors have generally seen the transition as a very positive process. They have concluded that the reform policies focusing on macroeconomic and price stability have been the key to success for CEE economies. A reliable economic environment is, of course, instrumental for longer-term economic success, as exemplified by the prolonged crisis in most of the former Soviet Union. Our analysis of the economic development and competitive advantages in the region, however, leads to the conclusion that the specific approach to transition that the Central and Eastern European countries followed came at a rather high cost. Comparative neglect and weakness of a set of policies crucial for longer-term development, such as science, technology and innovation policies, has led to deterioration in the last decade rather than the strengthening of the competitive advantages of Central and Eastern European economies. Furthermore, we argue that, in most cases, CEE countries have unfortunately overlooked or misjudged a number of development challenges, and have thus implemented policies that have generated growth at the cost of rapidly increasing risks. This is how the financial fragility of several Central and Eastern European countries has recently increased drastically, and the region seems to have virtually arrived at the brink of economic collapse. Since the CEE countries joined the European Union, the CEE governments have gradually moved towards acquiring a more active role in economic development. These policies need, however, to be strengthened considerably and reinforced by macroeconomic policies that curb current excessive dependence on foreign-financed growth.