Frustrated fertility: a population paradox

This Bulletin examines the causes of subfecundity -- the diminished ability to reproduce -- and its effect today and in the past on the fertility, or actual reproductive performance, of individuals and, hence, populations. By definition, all real populations are subfecund since all experience some degree of involuntary biological factors affecting coitus, conception, or the ability to carry a conceptus to live birth which reduces their fecundity below the estimated biological population maximum of 15 children per woman. Affecting both men and women, these factors fall into 5 categories: genetic factors such as blood group incompatibilities and inherited sickle cell anemia or diabetes; psychopathology, including psychic stress and behavioral disorders (e.g., drug and alcohol abuse); infectious diseases such as gonorrhea, malaria, tuberculosis, and postabortion infection; malnutrrition, including the chronic undernutrition of the 3rd World and the overnutrition of developed societies; and hazards posed by increasing amounts of radiation and toxic chemicals in the environment. Reducing subfecundity requires improved living conditions, avoidance of or protection from known hazards, and adoption of medical advances which now can help 40 to 60% of subfecund couples. But even in the U.S. fertility would certainly rise among the 15% of couples now estimated to be involuntarily childless and the 10% who have fewer children than they want, and among disadvantaged groups, and teenagers.     

Contrasting perspectives of parents and service providers on respite care in Queensland,Australia

Abstract

Parent-carers need support to continue to care for their child with significant disability in their home. There has, however, been little evidence that respite interventions have consistent or enduring beneficial effects on carer well-being. This article reports the findings of a qualitative study which adopted an Appreciative Inquiry philosophy to interview parent-carers of children with significant intellectual and/or developmental disabilities on how formal support services have helped them maintain their health and well-being, and disability support staff on how they help such parent-carers foster their health and well-being. We conclude that better communication and collaboration between service providers and users, more targeted training of workers, and embracing a person-centred and family-centred approach to respite services are needed. In addition, clearer definition and communication of the scope of respite services are required to best support families of children with significant disability in their home.     

Negative Religious Rhetoric in the Lives of Black Cisgender Queer Emerging Adult Men: A Qualitative Analysis

Given the intersection of racial, religious, and sexual identities for Black queer populations, the current study examines sexuality-related religious rhetoric. Twenty Black cisgender queer men were recruited to participate in a qualitative interview. Using thematic analysis, the research team identified four themes: negative religious rhetoric, personal consequences of negative religious rhetoric, social consequences of negative religious rhetoric, and growth from negative religious rhetoric. Participants explained the pervasiveness of negative religious rhetoric within their churches and family structures. Men also conveyed how negative religious rhetoric frames societal ideologies around same-sex behavior, often condoning violence toward queer populations. Although men had negative experiences, participants articulated the importance of using oppression as a platform for growth. Black cisgender queer men are present within religious institutions; however, such negative religious rhetoric may negatively affect their mental and physical health. Researchers, clinicians, and clergy should consider the ways negative religious rhetoric marginalizes queer populations.     

Directional mixture models and optimal estimation of the mixing density

The authors develop consistent nonparametric estimation techniques for the directional mixing density. Classical spherical harmonics are used to adapt Euclidean techniques to this directional environment. Minimax rates of convergence are obtained for rotation ally invariant densities verifying various smoothness conditions. It is found that the differences in smoothness between the Laplace, the Gaussian and the von Mises‐Fisher distributions lead to contrasting inferential conclusions.     

A Note on Tests for Zero-Inflation in Correlated Count Data

Zero-inflated Poisson mixed regression models are popular approaches to analyze clustered count data with excess zeros. Prior to application of these models, it is essential to examine the necessity of the adjustment for zero outcomes. The existing literature, however, has focused only on score tests for testing the suitability of zero-inflated models for correlated count data. In view of the observed bias and non-optimal size of score tests, it deserves further investigation of other alternative ways for the test. This article aims to explore the use of the null Wald and likelihood ratio tests for zero-inflation in correlated count data. Our simulation study shows that both the null Wald and likelihood ratio tests outperform the score test of Xiang et al. (2006 Xiang , L. , Lee , A. H. , Yau , K. K. W. , McLachlan , G. J. ( 2006 ). A score test for zero-inflation in correlated count data . Statistics in Medicine 25 : 1660 – 1671 . [Google Scholar]) in terms of statistical power, regardless of the computational convenience of the score test. A bootstrap null Wald statistic is also proposed, which results in improved performance in terms of the size and power of the test.     

Integration Between Business Planning and Information Systems Planning: Validating a Stage Hypothesis

This paper proposes and empirically validates a stages of growth model for the evolution of Information Systems Planning (ISP). A questionnaire survey of senior IS executives is used to gather information pertaining to the stages of growth model, which includes measurement of the nature and level of integration between business planning (BP) and ISP. The del test is used to validate empirically benchmark variables for each stage of BP-ISP integration. The results support the stages of growth model of BP-ISP integration and the benchmark variables are generally found to be successful in predicting the stage of integration.     

An Application of Master Schedule Smoothing and Planned Lead Time Control

Make‐to‐order (MTO) manufacturers must ensure concurrent availability of all parts required for production, as any unavailability may cause a delay in completion time. A major challenge for MTO manufacturers operating under high demand variability is to produce customized parts in time to meet internal production schedules. We present a case study of a producer of MTO offshore oil rigs that highlights the key aspects of the problem. The producer was faced with an increase in both demand and demand variability. Consequently, it had to rely heavily on subcontracting to handle production requirements that were in excess of its capacity. We focused on the manufacture of customized steel panels, which represent the main sub‐assemblies for building an oil rig. We considered two key tactical parameters: the planning window of the master production schedule and the planned lead time of each workstation. Under the constraint of a fixed internal delivery lead time, we determined the optimal planning parameters. This improvement effort reduced the subcontracting cost by implementing several actions: the creation of a master schedule for each sub‐assembly family of the steel panels, the smoothing of the master schedule over its planning window, and the controlling of production at each workstation by its planned lead time. We report our experience in applying the analytical model, the managerial insights gained, and how the application benefits the oil‐rig producer.     

Newsvendor Pricing Problem in a Two‐Sided Market

We study the pricing problem of a “platform” intermediary to jointly determine the selling price of the platforms (hardware) sold to consumers and the royalty charged to content developers for content (software), when the demands for content and for platforms are interdependent. Our model elucidates the impact of supply chain replenishment costs and demand uncertainty on the strategic issues of platform pricing in a two‐sided market.     

The effects of landscape scale on greenery and traffic relationships with urban birds and butterflies

Actions and policies to enhance biodiversity in the urban landscape must match the spatial scale at which biodiversity responds to the management and target variables. To this end, we compare the importance and effect of different kinds of greenery cover and road-lane density on bird and butterfly species richness between two landscape scales: 50-m versus 126-m radii around point counts (equivalent to areas of 0.8 h and 5 ha, respectively). We also compared the results against those of an earlier study using 500-m walking transects with widths of 100 m (i.e., 5 ha). Road lane density was more important at the 126-m than 50-m radius for both birds and butterflies. For birds, natural vegetation or forest cover and cultivated shrub cover were also more important at 126-m radius whereas the cultivated tree canopy cover was more important at 50-m radius. Cultivated tree cover and natural vegetation or forest cover were positively associated with species richness while road lane density and cultivated shrub cover were negatively associated with species richness. The results from point counts generally corroborate the results from the transects-based study, except that the short-duration point counts performed poorly in sampling butterflies. Our results indicate that in designing urban greenery policy, the plot sizes of individual developments is an appropriate spatial scale for the stipulation of tree cover targets, while urban planners have more flexibility to allocate natural greenery at broader spatial scales.