Understanding Cumulative Risk Perception from Judgments and Choices: An Application to Flood Risks

Catastrophic events, such as floods, earthquakes, hurricanes, and tsunamis, are rare, yet the cumulative risk of each event occurring at least once over an extended time period can be substantial. In this work, we assess the perception of cumulative flood risks, how those perceptions affect the choice of insurance, and whether perceptions and choices are influenced by cumulative risk information. We find that participants' cumulative risk judgments are well represented by a bimodal distribution, with a group that severely underestimates the risk and a group that moderately overestimates it. Individuals who underestimate cumulative risks make more risk‐seeking choices compared to those who overestimate cumulative risks. Providing explicit cumulative risk information for relevant time periods, as opposed to annual probabilities, is an inexpensive and effective way to improve both the perception of cumulative risk and the choices people make to protect against that risk.     

Peer Crowd Affiliation and Internalizing Distress in Childhood and Adolescence: A Longitudinal Follow‐Back Study

Concurrent and longitudinal associations between peer crowd affiliation and internalized distress were examined in a sample of 246 youth (148 girls, 98 boys). Children completed measures of depression, social anxiety, loneliness, and self‐esteem when they were in grades 4 to 6 (Time 1), and again 6 years later during adolescence (grades 10 – 12; Time 2). At Time 2, adolescents also reported their self‐concept and their identification with reputation‐based peer crowds, including Populars, Jocks, Brains, Burnouts, Non‐Conformists, and None/Average crowds. Results indicated that adolescents' report of peer crowd affiliation was concurrently associated with self‐concept and levels of internalizing distress. Follow‐back analyses of internalizing trajectories revealed that Populars/Jocks had experienced significant declines in internalizing distress across development, whereas Brains exhibited some increases in internalizing distress between childhood and adolescence.     

A Bayesian Hierarchical Model for the Evaluation of a Website

Consider a website and the surfers visiting its pages. A typical issue of interest, for example while monitoring an advertising campaign, concerns whether a specific page has been designed successfully, i.e. is able to attract surfers or address them to other pages within the site. We assume that the surfing behaviour is fully described by the transition probabilities from one page to another, so that a clickstream (sequence of consecutively visited pages) can be viewed as a finite-state-space Markov chain. We then implement a variety of hierarchical prior distributions on the multivariate logits of the transition probabilities and define, for each page, a content effect and a link effect. The former measures the attractiveness of the page due to its contents, while the latter signals its ability to suggest further interesting links within the site. Moreover, we define an additional effect, representing overall page success, which incorporates both effects previously described. Using WinBUGS, we provide estimates and credible intervals for each of the above effects and rank pages accordingly.     

Decision-Making and Informal Political Institutions in Chilean Sub-National Public Investment

Literature on informal political institutions has focused on the national level, disregarding sub-national contexts where one can expect increased informality. This article analyzes locally allocated Chilean public investment to understand how informal institutions affect regional development and local democracy. Based on 59 interviews with key stakeholders and national authorities, this research analyses the flow of the decision-making process on funds for regional investment. The results show that local bureaucrats introduce innovations to cope with the weaknesses of formal decision-making regulations, and that these may become informal institutions that complement or accommodate the process to obtain the outcomes expected under the formal rule.

     

Temporary Employment Contracts and Household Income

Social Indicators Research - It is widely accepted that temporary jobs tend to be associated with low pay which, in turn, will have negative consequences for household income. Evidence in support...     

建设社会主义政治文明与全面建设小康社会

发展社会主义民主政治，建设社会主义政治文明，是全面建设小康社会的重要目标之一，也是中国共产党人始终不渝的奋斗目标。坚持中国共产党的领导，通过发扬党内民主到积极推动人民民主的发展，是建设小康社会的政治保证；完善人民民主，推进民主政治制度化、法律化，真正实现人民当家作主是建设社会主义政治文明的核心，是建设小康社会的力量之源，而依法治国是建设社会主义政治文明的重要标志，更是全面建设小康社会的法制保障。     

‘Colour-evasiveness’ and racism without race: the disablement of asylum-seeking children at the edge of fortress Europe

This article explores discriminatory discourses articulated by Italian professionals operating in educational, health and social services for refugees in Rome, in relation to the educational and social inclusion of unaccompanied asylum-seeking and refugee children. It locates such narratives within the historical ‘concealment and invisibilisation of race and racism’ that have characterised Italy particularly since the end of the Second World War, while showing how they legitimate contemporary processes of disablement and over-representation of forced migrant children in the category of Special Educational Needs. A theoretical framework influenced by Dis/ability Critical Race Studies, Italian postcolonial studies, and Judith Butler’s notions of subjectivation and performative politics is used to discuss how a ‘colour-evasive’ racial ideology has seeped into various institutions in Italian society, and importantly into education policies and practices.     

G20伦敦峰会之后世界经济能否峰回路转？

万众瞩目的G20峰会于2009年4月1日～2日在英国伦敦召开.G20伦敦峰会为何要召开,其意义何在?世界经济在此之后能否峰回路转? 一、G20伦敦峰会召开的背景 G20伦敦峰会是在全球金融危机爆发后,在寻求拯救世界经济途径的背景下召开的,因此G20峰会的召开无疑是备受关注的.     

The intersection of nonsuicidal self-injury and suicide-related behavior: Patterns of elevated risk and implications for college mental health

Objective: To analyze the overlap of nonsuicidal self-injury (NSSI) and suicide-related behaviors (SRB) among college students with regard to demographics, mental health, and coping styles. Participants: Respondents were 572 undergraduate students at a southwestern public university. Methods: Data were collected in 2015. Respondents completed a demographic survey and assessments of NSSI, SRB, internalizing symptoms (ie, anxiety, stress, and depression), aggression, and negative coping strategies. The survey was administered via a Web-based procedure. Results: Women reported more frequent cutting behaviors than men. Endorsement of NSSI was also associated with an increased likelihood of lifetime SRB. A subgroup of students endorsing both NSSI and SRB demonstrated poorer mental health, more negative coping, and self-reported female sex. Conclusions: College healthcare providers may benefit from competency-based training in techniques for the combination treatment of NSSI and SRB, as well as culturally based models of suicide.