Participation and Local Governance Outcomes: Evidence from Ukraine

As participatory governance approaches to local development get adopted also in transition countries, one of the key questions is how participation actually impacts local governance outcomes. This study examines the link between non-electoral participation and different public goods outcomes in rural Ukraine along with identifying the role of community-based organizations (CBOs). Using a unique survey data from Ukraine, I approach these questions empirically explicitly distinguishing between different public goods outcomes. I find that participation appears to be positively associated with local school and water supply outcomes. In addition, CBOs are found to be associated with better quality of water supply systems motivating a discussion about establishment of service cooperatives for water supply as a functional local governance arrangement.     

Nonparametric monitoring of equal predictive ability

This paper introduces a novel sequential approach for online surveillance of the equal predictive ability (EPA) hypothesis presumed to hold for many competing forecasting models. A nonparametric control chart is suggested for providing a decision at every new time point as to whether the EPA hypothesis remains valid. The detection ability of our procedure is evaluated in a Monte Carlo simulation study for various types of deviations from the EPA hypothesis. Our approach enables the quick detection of various shift types, is parsimonious, and robust to misspecifications. Based on these results, we formulate practical recommendations for procedure design.     

Interval shrinkage estimators

This paper considers estimation of an unknown distribution parameter in situations where we believe that the parameter belongs to a finite interval. We propose for such situations an interval shrinkage approach which combines in a coherent way an unbiased conventional estimator and non-sample information about the range of plausible parameter values. The approach is based on an infeasible interval shrinkage estimator which uniformly dominates the underlying conventional estimator with respect to the mean square error criterion. This infeasible estimator allows us to obtain useful feasible counterparts. The properties of these feasible interval shrinkage estimators are illustrated both in a simulation study and in empirical examples.     

Multivariate CUSUM chart: properties and enhancements

The multivariate CUSUM#1 control chart of Pignatiello and Runger (J. Qual. Technol. 22:173–186, 1991) is widely used in practical applications due to its good ability to detect shifts of small and medium size in a process of interest. This paper investigates properties and suggests several refinements of this chart. The performance of the competing procedures is evaluated within a Monte Carlo simulation study. The suggested log MCUSUM chart proves to be the best among the investigated alternatives for the considered performance criteria.     

Signaling NBER turning points: a sequential approach

The dates of the U.S. business cycle are reported by the National Bureau of Economic Research with a considerable delay, so an early notion of turning points is of particular interest. This paper proposes a novel sequential classification approach designed for timely signaling these turning points, using the time series of coincident economic indicators. The approach exhibits a range of theoretical optimality properties for early signaling, moreover, it is transparent and easy to implement. The empirical study evaluates the signaling ability of the proposed methodology.     

Culture as a consequence: A multi-level multivariate meta-analysis of the effects of individual and country characteristics on work-related cultural values

Culture as a consequence is a neglected topic. Addressing this, we explore what factors are related to and potentially shape culture, what explains cultural variations within countries, and what the relationship is between cultural values at the individual and national levels. To answer these questions, we use a multi-level multivariate meta-analysis of 508 studies. The findings indicate that national and individual cultural values may be determined by the micro characteristics of age, gender, education, and socio-economic status as well as the macro characteristics of wealth and freedom. This provides a basis for explaining cultural change, both at the individual and national levels. Also, up to 90% of the variance in cultural values is found to reside within countries, stressing that national averages poorly represent specific individuals.     

Sequential monitoring of minimum variance portfolio

This paper evaluates the economic effect of monitoring the minimum variance portfolio weights, which depend solely on the covariance matrix of returns. The investor decides whether the portfolio composition providing the smallest portfolio variance remains optimal at the beginning of every new investment period. For this purpose changes in the optimal weights are sequentially detected by means of EWMA control charts. Signals obtained from monitoring are used for improvement of the covariance matrix estimation procedure. The investment strategy exploiting signals from control charts is compared with a number of alternative approaches in the empirical study.     

New characteristics for portfolio surveillance

This paper elaborates the tools for the surveillance of the global minimum variance portfolio weights. Golosnoy and Schmid [V. Golosnoy and W. Schmid, EWMA control charts for optimal portfolio weights, Sequential Anal. 26 (2007), pp. 195–224] introduced exponentially weighted moving average-type control charts for this task based on the processes of the estimated weights as well as of their first differences. This paper proposes the new approximations to these processes exhibiting better stochastic properties for sequential monitoring purposes. The control schemes for the new processes are compared for different types of economically relevant changes using Monte Carlo simulations. The suggested procedures appear to be superior for the considered performance measures.     

Challenges and practical aspects of obtaining temporary protection in EU countries and the impact of obtaining protection on the right to work

In general, the situation that has developed in Ukraine on the border with the European Union shows that despite the long history of the UN and the agreement of states to resolve all conflicts through negotiations, the prohibition of the use of force and threat of force, respect for the independence of other states, there are still terrorist states in the world that do not recognize and violate international law. Thus, the states that follow the norms and principles of international law, respect the key European values, support and protect human rights and peace on the continent must unite to overcome armed aggression. That is why the granting of temporary protection to Ukrainian citizens is an important issue, as it is one of the EU's significant contributions to the protection of the identity of the Ukrainian people, who are fighting for their independence. The purpose of the article was to study the peculiarities of obtaining temporary protection in the EU, to compare it with refugee status, to analyse the approaches to this procedure in individual states, as well as to determine the impact of obtaining the relevant status on the realization of the fundamental right to work. The main method used for the research is the method of analysis and synthesis. Its application provided reliable results in many areas of research. First of all, this method was applied in the analysis of EU and international law in the context of granting refugee status and temporary protection. Also, the method of analysis and synthesis was used by the author in the study of the peculiarities of temporary protection in individual Member States. Finally, the author used this method to analyse the problems currently faced by Ukrainian citizens and their possible solutions.