贤人之治的当代民主嬗变

从本质上看,贤人之治是一种“精英专政”,在历史进程中衍生出政治的宗法化、道德化倾向,展露了其政治哲学的工具化、实用化特征,反映了传统儒学社会“公”领域的缺陷,因此与当代民主行政的核心价值相异。目前我国的民主治道变革面临双重任务：一方面,从贤人之治的传统德治主义向理性官僚制的范式变迁是民主转型的前提。另一方面,面对“后官僚时代”的挑战,治理者还须积极回应公民参与、理性行政、多元治理、公共利益等民主治理的诉求,只有这样,适合我国民主行政发育的道德生态才能孕育而生,儒学政治文明也才能在全球化时代焕发新的生命力。     

A case–control study relating railroad worker mortality to diesel exhaust exposure using a threshold regression model

A case–control study of lung cancer mortality in U.S. railroad workers in jobs with and without diesel exhaust exposure is reanalyzed using a new threshold regression methodology. The study included 1256 workers who died of lung cancer and 2385 controls who died primarily of circulatory system diseases. Diesel exhaust exposure was assessed using railroad job history from the US Railroad Retirement Board and an industrial hygiene survey. Smoking habits were available from next-of-kin and potential asbestos exposure was assessed by job history review. The new analysis reassesses lung cancer mortality and examines circulatory system disease mortality. Jobs with regular exposure to diesel exhaust had a survival pattern characterized by an initial delay in mortality, followed by a rapid deterioration of health prior to death. The pattern is seen in subjects dying of lung cancer, circulatory system diseases, and other causes. The unique pattern is illustrated using a new type of Kaplan–Meier survival plot in which the time scale represents a measure of disease progression rather than calendar time. The disease progression scale accounts for a healthy-worker effect when describing the effects of cumulative exposures on mortality.     

落实科学发展观 正确处理四个关系

如何树立和落实科学发展观,把工作重心从量的增长转到质的提高上来,走特色发展的道路,实现全面、协调、可持续发展,是高校面临的重要问题.文章提出在学校发展的指导思想和工作思路上,应当正确处理好外延发展与内涵发展、全面发展和特色发展、改革发展和稳定、党建思想政治工作和其他工作的关系.     

论科学研究中质与量的两种取向和方法

客观存在的一切事物都具有质和量的两种规定性,质和量构成了科学研究的两个取向,或两个侧重点。质的研究和量的研究在方法论原则、研究程序、步骤、收集资料的方法上都存在着差别。在社会研究领域,由于社会现象的特殊性和复杂性,存在着质的研究与量的研究哪一种更合理、更科学的争论。本文通过对两者的简略分析和比较,说明它们是既有区别又互相补充的研究方法,把质的研究与量的研究结合起来是科学研究的必然要求。     

Estimation of the mutagenic potency of environmental chemicals using short-term bioassay

The Ames Salmonella test is a widely used bioassay method for assessing the mutagenic potency of a potential carcinogen. The test is quick and reliable, and exploits the correlation that exists between mutagenic potential and carcinogenic potential. The data for this case study came from an international study involving 20 laboratories in nine countries. The laboratories participated in a designed experiment in which substances (complex chemical mixtures of the type encountered in the environment) were evaluated for mutagenicity using the Ames test. A stringent protocol was followed. The study's principal aim was to investigate intra- and inter-laboratory variation in test results. The data consist of counts of revertant Salmonella colonies at each of six dose levels of a substance. The data were obtained for each of five test substances from each participating laboratory. The bioassays were carried out according to a prescribed factorial experimental design. Three sets of analysts participated in this case study. They were asked to model the dose-response relationship for two substances, to develop an index of the strength of the relationship, and to assess intra- and inter-laboratory variation in bioassay results.     

Extreme-value analysis of canadian wind speeds

Estimates of extreme winds are essential for engineering design, but in preparing such estimates major statistical issues are encountered. In this case study, the analysts were provided with hourly readings on wind speed, wind direction, and barometric pressure at five Canadian stations for observation periods ranging over several recent decades. Their assignment was to calculate point and interval estimates of 10-, 20-, 50-, and 100-year return values (i.e., upper fractiles) for the wind speeds at these stations.     

The poisson-inverse gaussian disiribuiion as a model for species abundance

An inverse Gaussian mixture of Poisson distributions(the P-IG distribution) is considered as a model for species abundance data,, Minimum chi-square and maximum likelihood methods of estimation for the zero-truncated P-IG distribution are developed, Ihe performance of the P-IG distribution is illustrated and discussed for several well-known sets of insect abundance data.     

Failure Inference From a Marker Process Based on a Bivariate Wiener Model

Many models have been proposed that relate failure times and stochastic time-varying covariates. In some of these models, failure occurs when a particular observable marker crosses a threshold level. We are interested in the more difficult, and often more realistic, situation where failure is not related deterministically to an observable marker. In this case, joint models for marker evolution and failure tend to lead to complicated calculations for characteristics such as the marginal distribution of failure time or the joint distribution of failure time and marker value at failure. This paper presents a model based on a bivariate Wiener process in which one component represents the marker and the second, which is latent (unobservable), determines the failure time. In particular, failure occurs when the latent component crosses a threshold level. The model yields reasonably simple expressions for the characteristics mentioned above and is easy to fit to commonly occurring data that involve the marker value at the censoring time for surviving cases and the marker value and failure time for failing cases. Parametric and predictive inference are discussed, as well as model checking. An extension of the model permits the construction of a composite marker from several candidate markers that may be available. The methodology is demonstrated by a simulated example and a case application.