对我国大城市发展设计服务业的思考——以北京为例

发展设计服务业对提升我国产业综合竞争力、推动城市产业升级和经济发展方式转变具有重要战略意义。近年来北京设计服务业取得了快速发展,初步形成了工业设计、建筑设计、服饰设计、平面设计等若干重点领域,但还有待提升。北京要通过加强宏观引导和政策扶持、促进产学研合作、促进产业国际化发展等措施,不断优化产业发展环境,进一步推动设计服务业健康快速发展。     

Criteria for estimating the variance function used in the asymptotic quasi-likelihood approach

The estimation of the variance function of a linear regression model used in the asymptotic quasi-likelihood approach is considered. It is shown that the variance function used in the determination of the asymptotic quasi-likelihood estimates encompasses the variance functions commonly found in the literature. Selection criteria of the most appropriate estimate of the variance function for given data are established. These criteria are based on a graphical technique and a chi-squared test.     

An alternative derivation of the Kalman filter using the quasi-likelihood method

The Kalman filter gives a recursive procedure for estimating state vectors. The recursive procedure is determined by a matrix, so-called gain matrix, where the gain matrix is varied based on the system to which the Kalman filter is applied. Traditionally the gain matrix is derived through the maximum likelihood approach when the probability structure of underlying system is known. As an alternative approach, the quasi-likelihood method is considered in this paper. This method is used to derive the gain matrix without the full knowledge of the probability structure of the underlying system. Two models are considered in this paper, the simple state space model and the model with correlated between measurement and transition equation disturbances. The purposes of this paper are (i) to show a simple way to derive the gain matrix; (ii) to give an alternative approach for obtaining optimal estimation of state vector when underlying system is relatively complex.     

A New Kind of Asymptotic Quasi-Score Estimating Function

A new definition of asymptotic quasi-score sequence of estimating functions is given and studied. The relationship between asymptotic quasi-likelihood and quasi-likelihood estimates is investigated. A new practical approach for obtaining a good estimate of θ in the model y _t = f_t (θ) + m_t without any prior knowledge on the nature of E ( m ² _t |F _{t −1}) is suggested, where f_t is a predictable process and m_t is a martingale difference process. Two examples are used to show that the approach is practicable.     

Analysis of experiments using the asymptotic quasi-likelihood approach

Comparison of treatment effects in an experiment is usually done through analysis of variance under the assumption that the errors are normally and independently distributed with zero mean and constant variance. The traditional approach in dealing with non-constant variance is to apply a variance stabilizing transformation and then run the analysis on the transformed data. In this approach, the conclusions of analysis of variance apply only to the transformed population. In this paper, the asymptotic quasi-likelihood method is introduced to the analysis of experimental designs. The weak assumptions of the asymptotic quasi-likelihood method make it possible to draw conclusions on heterogeneous populations without transforming them. This paper demonstrates how to apply the asymptotic quasi-likelihood technique to three commonly used models. This gives a possible way to analyse data given a complex experimental design.     

Optimal estimating functions and wedderburn's quasi-likelihood

There are two inference methods which can be considered as developed from the classical least squares and maximum likelihood methods. One was put forward by Wedderburn (1974) and is called the quasi-likelihood method. Another was introduced by Godambe and others from the viewpoint of the estimating functions. This method is also called quasi-likelihood although there x are some differences between these two methods. In order to clarify the relationship, this paper provides a unified discussion of the two methods from the viewpoint of estimating functions.     

Fitting probability forecasting models by scoring rules and maximum likelihood

Probability forecasting models can be estimated using weighted score functions that (by definition) capture the performance of the estimated probabilities relative to arbitrary “baseline” probability assessments, such as those produced by another model, by a bookmaker or betting market, or by a human probability assessor. Maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) is interpretable as just one such method of optimum score estimation. We find that when MLE-based probabilities are themselves treated as the baseline, forecasting models estimated by optimizing any of the proven families of power and pseudospherical economic score functions yield the very same probabilities as MLE. The finding that probabilities estimated by optimum score estimation respond to MLE-baseline probabilities by mimicking them supports reliance on MLE as the default form of optimum score estimation.     

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN QUASI-SCORE AND LOCALLY E-SUFFICIENT ESTIMATING FUNCTIONS

The relationship between quasi-score estimating functions and locally E-sufficient estimating functions is discussed. Sufficient conditions for a quasi-score estimating function to be locally E-sufficient are given.     

An example of applying the asymptotic quasi-likelihood to dimension estimation for random spatial patterns

With reference to a specific example of a random spatial fractal and the modified box-counting method of dimension estimation, this paper aims to examine firstly the estimation of pointwise dimension via modification of the box-counting procedure, secondly the regression inspired estimation procedure, including generalised least squares and, finally, to develop a new estimation procedure – the asymptotic quasi-likelihood method – for the estimation of pointwise dimension. The main focus is on practicality – to arrive at an estimation method which is easy to use and robust.