A note on interdependent happiness

Based on two models of interdependent utilities [Becker, G., 1974. A theory of social interaction, Journal of Political Economy 82, 1064–1093; Fehr, E., Schmidt, K., 1999. A theory of fairness, competition, and cooperation, Quarterly Journal of Economics 114, 817–868] we derive a functional relationship between average happiness and the standard deviation of happiness within a country. This hypothesis is supported by an empirical investigation of 71 countries which shows that the average happiness in these countries depends only on income and on the standard deviation of happiness σ. The latter may be partly based on influences beyond income, for which no data are available. Income has the expected positive influence and σ has the expected negative influence, i.e. large differences in “autonomous” happiness have a dampening influence on “effective” happiness which also takes into account the happiness of others.     

Comparison of different estimation techniques for portfolio selection

The main problem in applying the mean-variance portfolio selection consists of the fact that the first two moments of the asset returns are unknown. In practice the optimal portfolio weights have to be estimated. This is usually done by replacing the moments by the classical unbiased sample estimators. We provide a comparison of the exact and the asymptotic distributions of the estimated portfolio weights as well as a sensitivity analysis to shifts in the moments of the asset returns. Furthermore we consider several types of shrinkage estimators for the moments. The corresponding estimators of the portfolio weights are compared with each other and with the portfolio weights based on the sample estimators of the moments. We show how the uncertainty about the portfolio weights can be introduced into the performance measurement of trading strategies. The methodology explains the bad out-of-sample performance of the classical Markowitz procedures.     

Nonparametric monitoring of equal predictive ability

This paper introduces a novel sequential approach for online surveillance of the equal predictive ability (EPA) hypothesis presumed to hold for many competing forecasting models. A nonparametric control chart is suggested for providing a decision at every new time point as to whether the EPA hypothesis remains valid. The detection ability of our procedure is evaluated in a Monte Carlo simulation study for various types of deviations from the EPA hypothesis. Our approach enables the quick detection of various shift types, is parsimonious, and robust to misspecifications. Based on these results, we formulate practical recommendations for procedure design.     

Editorial

AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis -