Monitoring the parameter changes in general ARIMA time series models

We propose methods for monitoring the residuals of a fitted ARIMA or an autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average (ARFIMA) model in order to detect changes of the parameters in that model. We extend the procedures of Box & Ramirez (1992) and Ramirez (1992) and allow the differencing parameter, d to be fractional or integer. Test statistics are approximated by Wiener processes. We carry out simulations and also apply our method to several real time series. The results show that our method is effective for monitoring all parameters in ARFIMA models.     

An Evaluation of a Child Guidance Clinic

An attempt is made to evaluate the effectiveness of a child guidance clinic. The outcome of the clinic's intervention was found to vary according to the nature of the presenting problem and the social class of the client. The categories of problems where treatment was ineffective are discussed in detail.     

Social,Economic and Demographic Consequences of Migration on Kerala

Migration has been the single most dynamic factor in the otherwise dreary development scenario of Kerala during the last quarter of the last century. It has contributed more to poverty alleviation and reduction in unemployment in Kerala than any other factor. As a result of migration, the proportion of the population below the poverty line has declined by 12 per cent. The number of unemployed persons – estimated to be only about 13 lakhs in 1998 compared with 37 lakhs reported by the Kerala Employment Exchanges – has declined by over 30 per cent. Migration has caused nearly a million married women in Kerala to live away from their husbands. Most of these so‐called “Gulf wives” experienced extreme loneliness to begin with, and were burdened with added family responsibilities to which they had not been accustomed when their husbands were with them. But over a period, and with a helping hand from abroad over the ISD, most came out of their early gloom. Their gain in autonomy, status, management skills and experience in dealing with the world outside their homes were developed the hard way and would remain with them for the rest of their lives for the benefit of their families and society. In the long run, the transformation of these million women will have contributed more to the development of Kerala society than all the temporary euphoria created by remittances and modern gadgetry. Kerala is dependent on migration for employment, subsistence, housing, household amenities, institution building, and many other developmental activities. The danger is that migration could cease, as shown by the Kuwait war of 1993, and repercussions could be disastrous for the State. Understanding migration trends and instituting policies to maintain the flow of migration is more important today than at any time in the past. Kerala workers seem to be losing out in international competition for jobs in the Gulf market. Corrective policies are needed urgently to raise their competitive edge over workers in competing countries in South and South‐East Asia. Like any other industry, migration from Kerala needs periodic technological upgrading of workers. Otherwise, there is a danger that the State might lose the Gulf market permanently. The crux of the problem is Kerala workers' inability to compete with expatriates from other South and South‐East Asian countries. The solution lies in equipping workers with better general education and job training. This study suggests a twofold approach. In the short run, the need is to improve the job skills of prospective emigrant workers. This could be achieved through ad hoc training programmes focussed on the job market in Gulf countries. In the long run, the need is to restructure the educational system, taking into consideration the future demand of workers not only in Kerala but also in potential destination countries all over the world, including the US and other developed countries. Kerala emigrants need not always be construction workers in the Gulf countries; they could also be software engineers in developed countries.     

The use of a hand-held microcomputer in the collection of physiological,subjective and behavioral data in ecologically valid gambling settings

A small, hand-held micro-computer was linked with telemetry equipment to permit simultaneous collection of heart rate, subjective ratings, and behavioral/environmental events. The two objectives satisfied by the system were unobtrusiveness in real-life gambling settings and capacity to down-load data directly to a host computer.This project is supported by the Australian Research Scheme grant no. A 284157490 I. Receiver and transmitters loaned by the Department of Zoology, ANU, and technical advice from Jim Bishop and Lyle Carpenter.     

Foreword

This article charts the history of MuseumAfrica (formerly the Africana Museum) from its founding vision to the present. Taking the museum’s current abysmal reputation as its starting point, it seeks to fill the void in academic and popular thought that encompasses the institution. Sketching the original mandate under which it was created before focusing on the museum’s work from 1935 to the near present, it explores the ways in which the museum interacted with and impacted the world outside its doors. Paying particular attention to the museum’s engagement with liberal and illiberal forces for change, it presents the museum as something other than the monument impervious to change that it is often assumed to be. Categorising the museum as an archive, this article argues in favour of the museum’s enduring relevance in the post‐colonial order.     

My Life in Huddersfield: Supporting Young Asylum Seekers and Refugees to Record Their Experiences of Living in Huddersfield

A project was undertaken with the aim of developing resources that would improve service delivery to asylum seeker children and young people by improving social worker training within the new social work degree. Funding was acquired to work with a group of children and young people. The workers engaged with them in a range of activities, designed to enable the expression of feelings in relation to immigration and asylum seeking. Participants were told they would be working towards producing resources for the training of health and social care staff. This became a strong motivating factor in the engagement of the young people and resulted in the production of teaching resources and a number of changes to the degree curriculum at the University of Huddersfield.     

Assessing Multidimensional Approaches to Measure Program Outcomes in Human Service Organizations

VOLUNTAS: International Journal of Voluntary and Nonprofit Organizations - This study explores scholars’ approaches to measure performance in nonprofit human service organizations. While...     

Bombay migration study: A pilot analysis of migration to an Asian metropolis

This paper reports on a pilot study of migration to Greater Bombay, initiated on the recommendation of the Population Commission of United Nations, and utilizes both published tables from the 1961 Census of India and a set of specially prepared tables from the same census. Migrants were defined by birthplace and cross-classified by age and duration of residence in Bombay.Data (1901-61) on net migration (obtained from successive age-sex distributions) are analyzed in terms of underlying trends to give historical perspective to the analysis of recent data with special emphasis on changes in industrial and occupotiona structure.For the 1951-61 decade, the extensiveness of out-migration of former in-migrants, its age-sex selectivity, and its high incidence among recent migrants are demonstrated. As is true elsewhere, migration to Bombay is shown to be highly selective for ages of maximum economic activity. Migration streams to Bombay were preponderantly male, and, among males, the married segment predominated. The propensity to migrate was unusually high among minority religious groups. As to educational level, migrants were superior to the general population at origin but inferior to nonmigrants residing in Bombay. The work participation rates of migrants were higher for every age group than for resident nonmigrants; the proportion of employees was higher; and there was evidence of migrant concentration in industries and occupations requiring less skill, less education, and less capital than was true of nonmigrants. There were significant tendencies toward "division of labor" among various migration streams on the basis of skills and abilities acquired not only by formal education but also through tradition and precept. From the standpoint of the promotion of social change, the large volume (and selectivity) of reverse or return migration is especially note-worthy.The paper concludes with a methodological evaluation of the reliability and validity of duration-of-residence data and indicates that the relatively simple techniques of enumeration and tabulation utilized in this pilot study may have wide applicability in other developing countries.