Monitoring the parameter changes in general ARIMA time series models

We propose methods for monitoring the residuals of a fitted ARIMA or an autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average (ARFIMA) model in order to detect changes of the parameters in that model. We extend the procedures of Box & Ramirez (1992) and Ramirez (1992) and allow the differencing parameter, d to be fractional or integer. Test statistics are approximated by Wiener processes. We carry out simulations and also apply our method to several real time series. The results show that our method is effective for monitoring all parameters in ARFIMA models.     

Basic Challenges to Prisoner Reentry

Crime, incarceration and prisoner reintegration are pressing issues facing the United States today. The U.S. prison population has increased from 330,000 in 1980 to over 2.2 million prisoners today. As the prison population grows at record rates so, in turn, does the reentry of prisoners into society. Currently, around 700,000 prisoners are released each year from custody and reenter society – nearly 2,000 inmates per day. The transition from prison to the outside world is often difficult for post-release prisoners, their families, their communities and the larger society. Many formally incarcerated individuals do not have the skills or support to succeed outside prison walls. Unfortunately, when post-release prisoners are not successfully reintegrated, they are returned to prison and begin the cycle of incarceration.
Practitioners and academics agree that the main components for successful reentry include proper housing, viable employment, and family and community support. However, while there is consensus regarding what post-release prisoners need for successful reentry there is debate as to which programs and policies work best. This paper examines the basic challenges to reentry and provides a brief summary of the problems with reentry program evaluation.     

An Evaluation of a Child Guidance Clinic

An attempt is made to evaluate the effectiveness of a child guidance clinic. The outcome of the clinic's intervention was found to vary according to the nature of the presenting problem and the social class of the client. The categories of problems where treatment was ineffective are discussed in detail.     

Ethnic Group Differences in Adolescents' Responses to AIDS

Adolescents of Anglo-Celtic, Greek, Italian and Chinese descent attending a wide range of post-secondary institutions in Victoria (mean age = 18 years) were asked about their sexual behaviours, knowledge about AIDS, and social responses to the threat of AIDS. There was evidence of relatively high levels of sexual activity, with some members of all groups engaging in risky sexual behaviour. Anglo-Australians were more sexually active and informed about AIDS, with more equality between the sexes in these respects than the other groups. There was a distinction made between behaviours regarded as safe with regular and casual partners, but the meaning attributed to regular partnership differed. Greek- and Italian-Australian young men endorsed monogamy for their regular partners but not necessarily for themselves, and Anglo-Australians accepted a relationship of shorter duration as regular. Greater knowledge was not related to safer sexual behaviour, but discussion about a regular partner's previous sexual history correlated with more risky sexual behaviour. Overall, risk levels were not high but the casual-regular partner distinction, together with the greater use of relatively unrealistic strategies for dealing with AIDS in association with risky behaviour in the non-Anglo groups, gives cause for concern.     

The use of a hand-held microcomputer in the collection of physiological,subjective and behavioral data in ecologically valid gambling settings

A small, hand-held micro-computer was linked with telemetry equipment to permit simultaneous collection of heart rate, subjective ratings, and behavioral/environmental events. The two objectives satisfied by the system were unobtrusiveness in real-life gambling settings and capacity to down-load data directly to a host computer.This project is supported by the Australian Research Scheme grant no. A 284157490 I. Receiver and transmitters loaned by the Department of Zoology, ANU, and technical advice from Jim Bishop and Lyle Carpenter.     

Social connectedness among international students at an Australian university

A representative sample of undergraduate and postgraduate international students at a large Australian university (n = 979, 64% females) completed a mail-back survey examining their perceptions of social connectedness. Four aspects of social connectedness were investigated: (1) connectedness in Melbourne, (2) social mixing and interaction with co-culturals and Australians, (3) involvement in organisations, associations and groups, and (4) connections to home and family. The majority of students report being well-connected to others in Melbourne, although some desire increased personal support from people who know and care about them. Connectedness in Melbourne is related to students’ cultural background and communication skills in the new culture and their evaluation of their perceived academic progress. Students from Asian countries reveal different patterns to other students, especially in the relationships between connectedness and interactions with co-culturals. Awareness of these and other differences among international students from varying cultural backgrounds can help target assistance in achieving a sense of well-being.     

Foreword

This article charts the history of MuseumAfrica (formerly the Africana Museum) from its founding vision to the present. Taking the museum’s current abysmal reputation as its starting point, it seeks to fill the void in academic and popular thought that encompasses the institution. Sketching the original mandate under which it was created before focusing on the museum’s work from 1935 to the near present, it explores the ways in which the museum interacted with and impacted the world outside its doors. Paying particular attention to the museum’s engagement with liberal and illiberal forces for change, it presents the museum as something other than the monument impervious to change that it is often assumed to be. Categorising the museum as an archive, this article argues in favour of the museum’s enduring relevance in the post‐colonial order.