The level and uncertainty of inflation: results from OECD forecasts

There is considerable evidence that inflation variability and the level of inflation are positively related across countries. Evidence of a within-country relation is mixed. Evidence for a significant positive relation comes mostly from studies using some survey measure; contrary evidence comes mostly from studies using regression errors. Our measure of uncertainty is the squared forecast-error from Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development inflation forecasts. Most countries do not exhibit a positive and significant relation. The greatest number of positive coefficients is for relative uncertainty regressed on contemporaneous inflation.     

A framework for optimizing managerial decision

There have been numerous attempts to analyze and formulate management problems within the general framework of Management Science and Operations Research, so as to help managers in their decision making problems. This paper focuses on the fundamental aspects of management decision making and introduces a conceptual framework in which problems of management and its different levels of functioning are systematically identified. Management problems are considered within two major categories: Enterprise and Operations problems. In spite of the difficulties in defining a clear-cut boundary between Enterprise and Operations problems, such a broad classification leads to three basic levels of management functioning, namely: Policy making, coordinating and implementation. The universal relationship among these three basic levels of functioning provides a basic functional element called the Management Triad. In contrast to classical higherarchial structure, triad structure provides a methodology to analyze relationships among different levels of management functions in terms of a given decision problem. It is demonstrated that for different decision making problems individuals can shift from one end of the triad to another and perform a different management function.A quantitative approach has been introduced for operations management decision making by adapting Shewhart's control chart philosophy which in turn provides for quasi-automated decisions for corrective action and also for filtering significant signals of change to appropriate management functioning levels.