Nonparametric estimation of the conditional distribution function in a semiparametric censorship model

In this paper we propose a new nonparametric estimator of the conditional distribution function under a semiparametric censorship model. We establish an asymptotic representation of the estimator as a sum of iid random variables, balanced by some kernel weights. This representation is used for obtaining large sample results such as the rate of uniform convergence of the estimator, or its limit distributional law. We prove that the new estimator outperforms the conditional Kaplan–Meier estimator for censored data, in the sense that it exhibits lower asymptotic variance. Illustration through real data analysis is provided.     

Is Stakeholder Corporate Governance Appropriate in Russia?

Journal of Management and Governance - Alternative forms of disciplining the actionsof senior enterprise managers can becharacterized as shareholder or stakeholdergovernance. This paper analyzes...     

A note on bias reduction of maximum likelihood estimates for the scalar skew t distribution

The skew t distribution is a flexible parametric family to fit data, because it includes parameters that let us regulate skewness and kurtosis. A problem with this distribution is that, for moderate sample sizes, the maximum likelihood estimator of the shape parameter is infinite with positive probability. In order to try to solve this problem, Sartori (2006) has proposed using a modified score function as an estimating equation for the shape parameter. In this note we prove that the resulting modified maximum likelihood estimator is always finite, considering the degrees of freedom as known and greater than or equal to 2.     

Cognitive distortions predict future gambling involvement

Disordered gambling is best conceptualized as a continuum of severity. Previous research has demonstrated the utility of studying individuals at all points of this spectrum. The sequence of the development of gambling problems and change in gambling involvement along this continuum of severity is not well understood. The present study examined the interplay between cognitive distortions and gambling involvement in a population sample recruited in Alberta, Canada. Data from 1372 participants over 4 assessment waves (5 years) were used to generate a 2-factor latent structure using gambling fallacies and gambling involvement measurements. Structural equation modelling showed that cognitive distortions more strongly predicted future gambling involvement than the reverse relationship, using the comparative fit index (CFI) and the root mean square error of approximation (RMSEA) to assess the models. In addition, cognitive distortions declined over time, whereas gambling involvement remained stable. The results of the study suggest that focusing primarily on cognitive mechanisms in public health initiatives for gambling disorders may be a more effective strategy than focusing on behavioural solutions.     

Can Carbon Nanomaterials Improve CZTS Photovoltaic Devices? Evaluation of Performance and Impacts Using Integrated Life‐Cycle Assessment and Decision Analysis

In emergent photovoltaics, nanoscale materials hold promise for optimizing device characteristics; however, the related impacts remain uncertain, resulting in challenges to decisions on strategic investment in technology innovation. We integrate multi‐criteria decision analysis (MCDA) and life‐cycle assessment (LCA) results (LCA‐MCDA) as a method of incorporating values of a hypothetical federal acquisition manager into the assessment of risks and benefits of emerging photovoltaic materials. Specifically, we compare adoption of copper zinc tin sulfide (CZTS) devices with molybdenum back contacts to alternative devices employing graphite or graphene instead of molybdenum. LCA impact results are interpreted alongside benefits of substitution including cost reductions and performance improvements through application of multi‐attribute utility theory. To assess the role of uncertainty we apply Monte Carlo simulation and sensitivity analysis. We find that graphene or graphite back contacts outperform molybdenum under most scenarios and assumptions. The use of decision analysis clarifies potential advantages of adopting graphite as a back contact while emphasizing the importance of mitigating conventional impacts of graphene production processes if graphene is used in emerging CZTS devices. Our research further demonstrates that a combination of LCA and MCDA increases the usability of LCA in assessing product sustainability. In particular, this approach identifies the most influential assumptions and data gaps in the analysis and the areas in which either engineering controls or further data collection may be necessary.     

Economic Crisis and Job Quality in Spain: A Multi-dimensional and Micro-data Empirical Approach

Through a representative sample of 9,100 and 8,755 employees in 2008 and 2010, and a using two-stage structural equation model, this article empirically analyses the multi-dimensional determinants (direct effects) of job quality in Spain. The research concludes that: #1 despite the economic crisis, job quality improved over the analysis period; #2 there was a shift in job quality explanation towards a more complete model with greater preponderance of the dimensions connected with the workplace relationships, work intensity, working conditions and work–life balance in detriment to dimensions connected with the intrinsic job quality and extrinsic rewards. These results suggest the importance of the working environment and social relationships, beyond the quality of the workplace, as important tools of employment public policy to improve labor markets and to overcoming the economic crisis.     

Flood Risk Management: US Army Corps of Engineers and Layperson Perceptions

Recent severe storm experiences in the U.S. Gulf Coast illustrate the importance of an integrated approach to flood preparedness planning that harmonizes stakeholder and agency efforts. Risk management decisions that are informed by and address decision maker and stakeholder risk perceptions and behavior are essential for effective risk management policy. A literature review and two expert models/mental models studies were undertaken to identify areas of importance in the flood risk management process for layperson, non‐USACE‐expert, and two USACE‐expert groups. In characterizing and mapping stakeholder beliefs about risks in the literature onto current risk management practice, recommendations for accommodating and changing stakeholder perceptions of flood risks and their management are identified. Needs of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) flood preparedness and response program are discussed in the context of flood risk mental models.     

The West,Russia, and China in Central Asia: What Kind of Game Is Being Played in the Region?

The article discusses the nature of the tangled interaction between the ex-Soviet Central Asian republics and the outside great powers – Russia, the United States and China. Although the so-called Great Game model is often used to explain the geopolitical rivalry in the region, the current pattern of relations between various international actors is much more complex than a traditional tug-of-war between the old colonial empires. While Russia's strategic role in Central Asia appears to be on the rise, the capacity of the West to influence political developments in the region has diminished. However, the overall situation in Central Asia remains volatile and its geopolitical landscape is far from being settled.     

Inflation projections for monetary policy decision making

Many central banks set inflation targets over the medium term and inflation projections are a key input for monetary policy decision making. In this paper, we present the procedures used by the Spanish Central Bank staff to project consumer price inflation. We also provide some illustrations of their policy uses, such as fan charts, deflation probabilities and the monitoring of inflation targets.     

Are Migrants Overrepresented Among Individual Welfare Beneficiaries?

The level of immigrant welfare dependency is the subject of heated debate in the majority of developed countries, which have experienced a significant increase in immigration in recent years. In both Europe and the US, the problem of potential excessive use of social transfers is beginning to bring real policy consequences. This article addresses this issue by presenting a quantitative assessment of welfare receipt in 17 European countries, as well as Yun decomposition of its differences between natives and immigrants. It adds to existing literature by comparing the levels of welfare dependence among EU and non-EU migrants for individual benefits including and excluding pensions, using recent data from EU-SILC. Results suggest that immigrants rely on welfare less often than natives, and receive lower benefits when they do. Those conclusions are reversed, however, when old-age benefits are not considered – especially in the case of non-EU migrants.